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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 19 October 2018

MIA'S STORM wins at 4/1

Cracking result for the blog yesterday when MIA'S STORM romped home an easy 4-length winner of a 6-runner race at the remarkably generous odds of 4/1.  As I wrote yesterday, I fully expected to see MIA'S STORM exploit her OR142 hurdle rating, as she'd already won a 3-mile hurdle race plus another couple of chases since then over 3-miles and, having been rated OR149 after her latest chase win, she had to be well-in. The only realistic opposition was the fav Boreham Bill who looked to be in the handicappers grip (this was his 4th run off OR130 since winning off OR126) and it was his first race further than 2m6f, so would he stay the trip? There was a bit of a move in the betting for Coologue as he was running from OR120,  but that low rating was due to him pulling-up on all 4 starts last season, so was he still interested in racing? As it turned out, only just - he finished last of the 6 runners. The other 3 in the race were outclassed. I really could not see MIA'S STORM not winning (provided she finished the race) and advised being quick to take the early 5/2 as I expected MIA'S STORM to start at much shorter odds than that - the SP of 4/1 was a gift.

The other race at Carlisle that I looked at also came good as the horse I had my eye on - COOKING FAT - ran a very solid race nearly snatching 2nd on the line from the 3/1 fav and only finishing a length behind the winner Looksnowtlikebrian.  I will be honest, I overlooked the winner mainly as trainer Tim Vaughan had a poor season last year with only 27 wins from 344 runners; but this season he is doing a lot better especially with his chasers and Looksnowtlikebrian was his 8th chase winner from 48 runners. Also, Looksnowtlikebrian won well over 2m5f on heavy at Ffos Las last December, and followed that up with another facile win before making lots of errors when last seen at Kelso in April. If you ignored that last run, he held a good chance off OR125 and he's now won 3 of his 5 chase races.  We will see more from COOKING FAT next time.

There are two jumps meetings today, at Fakenham and Wincanton.  
The racing at Fakenham does not offer a wagering opportunity and I'm not too happy about the Good-to-Firm ground at Wincanton.  
If the ground were softer, then I would be all over CAPTAIN BUCK'S in the 3-mile Class 3 handicap chase at 2:55pm, but on this fast ground I have no idea if he will run his race, or even start. The 6yo LTO winner Canyouringmeback is clearly in-form and could make a bold run but - if pushed - I'd be more interested in the 10yo SPORTING BOY who loves this ground, always seems at his best at this time of year, and if he can find a bit of the form he showed this time last year he will be thereabouts. Unfortunately, some other shrewdies have had the same thought and the early 20/1 has long gone, with best odds now being 10/1. 

As such, no wagers today.

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This blog is free, and remains free, because I love horseracing and bet with passion.
If I recommend a wager you know that I have my money on too, and it will likely be a fair bit more than the wager that I recommend (because, in my opinion, you do not have to bet big to get enjoyment).
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All the best from Wayward Lad.    

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