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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 18 October 2018

Thursday 18th October

This Thursday in October is a special one for me as way back in 2009 before I started blogging (that was in March 2010), this was the day when I went back to horseracing in a bigger way than I had before.  Back then there were meetings at Carlisle (as there is today) and Ludlow.
Today we have jumps meetings at Carlisle and Uttoxeter. 
At Carlisle there is a fairly competitive looking novice chase run over 2-mile at 2:10pm; a Class 3 event it should have plenty of pointers for the coming season. Of interest is the runner sent by Venetia Williams, only her 2nd runner of the season so far, Du Soleil - this horse has multiple entries and may well run again this weekend. What is interesting is that both times he's run on ground better than heavy, he's won - and the ground is good-to-soft at Carlisle.
Later on the card at 3:45pm there is a Class 3 handicap chase run over an extended 3-mile with 11-runners declared, including yesterday's winner ACDC.  Many years ago I subscribed to the statistical service SMARTSIG (don't ask me what it stands for) and one of the nuggets of information I obtained from that service was the high probability of winners from horses that turned our to run again within 5-days of a previous run, and the better the first run the more likely of a winning performance on the 2nd run. If ACDC runs this afternoon, I will be surprised if he does not start the fav at 4/1 or under, which makes him a value proposition at current odds of 11/2.  With Tintern Theatre usually needing a run to show his best, and Sky Pirate not convincing me he stays this trip well enough, a bigger challenge could come from the 7yo Cooking Fat who does stay this trip and looks to be on an attractive rating of OR127 which is 5lb below his hurdle rating.

At Uttoxeter, there is a very interesting Class 3 novice handicap chase at 3:25pm run over 2m6f & 110 yards, and it looks near impossible to make a selection, however the race should provide a wealth of notes for the notebook. The next race on the card looks a better wagering opportunity, as this 2m7f handicap hurdle should see MIA'S STORM exploiting her OR142 hurdle rating. With Boreham Bill looking to be in the handicappers grip, of the others only Coologue has the potential to make a race of it running from OR120 due to pulling-up on all 4 starts last season which he started on OR140.  We know the horse stays 3-mile (and more) and he likes to front-run, but is he still interested in racing? We won't find that out til the race starts.

No recommended wagers today, but I'm expecting another win from ACDC if he runs at Carlisle, and I really cannot see MIA'S STORM not winning at Uttoxeter, but if you are going to get a decent price on your wager you have to be quick as all the bookies go 5/2 or shorter except Bet365 who are 3/1.

We nearly had a winning start to the season last Saturday when LOVELY JOB jumped the last looking like the potential winner, but faded on the run-in and probably need the run; we will recoup that wager NTO I'm sure of it.

1 comment:

  1. MIA'S STORM wins at 4/1 - I said she couldn't be beat - and with ACDC a non-runner my "next best" COOKING FAT comes in 3rd at 15/2