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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.

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Saturday, 9 October 2021

Opening blog of a new jumps Season - 9th October 2021

Here we go again!  
What a beautiful day for going racing.  We have an exciting meeting at Chepstow, plus another at Hexham (don't forget) and the top-class races at Newmarket: the Dewhurst and the Cesarewitch.

At Chepstow, you always have to take notice of Paul Nicholls' and what he's running. In the 1:50pm he has Flic On Voyou who has run at this meeting for the last couple of seasons, winning last year, and btn a neck the year before.  This horse will be fit and ready today, and odds of 13/2 (William Hill) look generous and there's plenty of 6/1 around. For the ultra-cautious, Skybet offer 4-places and 11/2 which looks a shoo-in for an eachway thief as only 9 go to post!

Earlier this summer, I made a case for Real Steel being on a horses-to-follow list, as I think his rating of OR154 is very lenient considering what he's done in Ireland.  I think his best trip is <2m7f, so with this race today being just 90 yards short of 3-mile he could be stretched. However, he's a 160+ chaser in my book and if his recent wind surgery has worked he could be chucked in today. He's giving away a lot of weight in this handicap, especially to Cap Du Nord who looks well treated on OR138, and who will be running on from halfway, and his odds of 9/1 (Sky & Hills go 4-places) are attractive for eachway punters.

In the handicap chase at 4:05pm, I really cannot understand how Paint The Dream has only won once over fences in 10 starts - he's on my alert list.  Another on my alert list is Manofthemountain and this gelding could be the one to be on at this trip. Janika last won at Exeter as a 6yo almost 2yrs ago, but it was the Haldon Gold Cup. Unfortunately, he's not shown similar form since then, but this is a significant drop in class. For me, the value in this race is Manofthemountain at 9/2 which is available generally.

My wagers today will all be Chepstow:

1:50pm FLIC ON VOYOU @ 6/1
2:25pm CAP DU NORD @ 9/1
4:05pm MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN @ 9/2 
3x eachway doubles and an eachway treble - just to small stakes

At Newmarket in the Cesarewitch, I think Willie Mullins will set history for winning the race for the 4th time on the bounce: but it will be with BURNING VICTORY @ 8/1 (Bet365).

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