Welcome to the World of Horseracing

Record of the blog selections

Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


There are NO affiliate links on this site to bookies from whom the author receives over 30% of the stakes from your lost wagers.ising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Sunday 24 October 2021

Sunday 24th October 2021 - Aintree

No luck at all yesterday, with a poor effort from Jersey Bean, and while Fortescue did run well - and I thought he held a winning chance with a fine jump at the 3rd-last fence, his effort petered-out and both probably will come on for the run.

My assessment of the 3m2f chase at Cheltenham was completely wrong. The only horse that I was right about was Cloth Cap, who looks vastly over-rated at OR156. The runner-up yesterday The Hollow Ginge is an unpredictable sort as since his last win in Jan-2020 (21 months ago) he's run 7 times (including yesterday) and he's not completed the course in 5 of those races - yet when he does he's competitive.  He was on a "going" day yesterday, and I reckon he ran to his official rating of 137.  If the handicapper puts him up a few pounds then he's no chance going forward. 

What to make of the winner, the Gordon Elliott trained 9yo, Definite Plan? 
Let's be honest here: he had no chance on the formbook running off OR131.  He was beaten over 3-mile on 7th August at Kilbeggan, and while the winner of that race hasn't run since, nothing beaten that day is of any merit. Definite Plan ran again on 2nd October, but again could only run 2nd, and that was only due to the race-fav falling 3-out when going like the winner. 
The horse had no right to win this race, and had no right to start at odds of 9/2 as I had him at about 16/1 in my book - I'd rated him at minus-10lb .  
There should have Stewards Enquiry into the improvement in form, forget the odds the horse went off at, as there was nothing in the formbook to merit those odds.  The jockey's post-race quote of "we would have been happy with 5th or 6th" is bunkum - the stable knew, hence the odds on-course.  Some may call this an "old-fashioned gamble", but this sort of tactic just brings horseracing into disrepute. Gordon Elliott really knows how to get the best from his horses, he is one of the best in the game, but he should not take the piss from the formbook like this - otherwise the punter will make every horse he runs in Britain a 6/4 fav "just in case".

I'm just looking at one race today at Aintree: the 3:00pm Old Roan Chase (I used to enjoy drinking in the Old Roan pub - now closed). The race fav is the 5yo Allmankind, and he is probably destined for Group 1 glory at sometime this season, but I think he will struggle to give weight away in this race. While last years' winner Nuts Well tries to repeat and comes here having won LTO, I think he will struggle on these race conditions; for instance Itchy Feet was 3rd in this race last year (btn 2.50 lengths) and is 9lb better-off. The race distance of 2m4f will expose Fanion D'Estruval in my opinion as his best run last season was at 2-mile, and this small horse makes mistakes beyond that trip. Going left-handed LTO was not a good idea for Tamaroc Du Mathan, so I will not be having a penny on him, and the others in the race look outclassed.  For me, ITCHY FEET looks the most likely winner as he's a rock solid performer around OR153, he's done well in this race before, and today he in 1st-time cheekpieces.  Odds of 13/2 make him a very attractive eachway selection (5th odds 1,2,3) in this 8-runner race. 

Aintree 3:00pm - ITCHY FEET - £5 eachway @ 13/2 (Bet Victor & William Hill)

No comments:

Post a Comment