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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 16 October 2021

Saturday 16th October 2021

There's not much more to add to yesterday's blog.
At Ffos Las, the Welsh Champion Hurdle (limited handicap) at 4:35pm looks a cracker of a race, with some interesting contenders. The top trainers are all involved: Nicholls has Diego Du Charmil; Pipe has Umbrigado and Leoncavallo; Twiston-Davies has Ballyandy. I think Calico is a lot better than OR139, and this 5yo who is German-bred, could be one to keep on your side this season. However, odds of 3/1 in a race of this nature is no value.  If you can obtain 4/1, then take advantage.

At Market Rasen, the situation is similar.  The handicap chase at 3:20pm has some interesting contenders, but I made a note to take an interest in Senior Citizen on his initial couple of runs this autumn as he is best when fresh off a long break, and a repeat of his form at Newton Abbot on 28Sept20 or his next run at Huntingdon on 01Nov20 will see him go close in this race. We know trainer Alan King has his horses in-form and he will likely be at Ascot watching his Trueshan in the Group 2 Long Distance Cup; but that he's also an eye on this race suggests he means business.
Odds of 4/1 look fair to me as I'd be prepare to wager on him at 5/2 in this race.

I've mentioned odds and value a couple of times in this blog, and I watched a good interview by Simon Nott with long-time professional gambler Steve Lewis-Hamilton (you can find it via twitter and it's on the Star Sports website).  Steve explained the importance of odds and probability to determine value: there is no point betting on a horse at odds of 6/4 if you think it's realistic chance of winning is 2/1 - you need to bet when this situation is reversed, and you are obtaining odds of 2/1 about a 6/4 chance.

Understanding probability and odds percentages is fundamental to winning at betting, no matter what sport you are having a bet in; in fact it is not just limited to betting on sport.  Understanding odds and probability is also of great benefit to understanding more about life and life's opportunities, and risk.  Steve is correct, and I thoroughly agree with him, in saying very few people today understand odds and probability - and that is to the detriment of everyone, not just those who are interested in sport.  But for the punter, this is your edge.

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