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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.

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Saturday, 23 October 2021

Saturday 23rd October - Cheltenham

After hitting the post a couple of times in the first week back for the blog, we hit the back of the net with the only selection last Saturday with Senior Citizen winning at 9/2.  Let's see if we can follow-up this weekend back at Cheltenham.

We have some terrific races, and the Class 2 handicap chase over 3m1f at 2:20pm catches my attention. From my alert list there's Jersey Bean: a 3x winner last season, including here at Cheltenham LTO.  This will be only his 10th chase run, and he will be running on his preferred "good" ground - he is sure to be thereabouts. Another I like is Storm Control, who regular readers of the blog will know I tipped a couple of times last season without success. He won twice last season, both wins here including a C&D win in November, and he could take some pegging back as he likes to try and make-all. Top-weight Cloth Cap usually needs his seasonal debut, and I'm not sure that he's up to winning a handicap off OR156, that's a big ask. The Irish challenger Definite Plan needs to prove his stamina to take this, and I think this is too big a step up for Minella Bobo. For me, Jersey Bean at 8/1 (Bet Victor and PaddyPower) looks the best value for an each-way wager should Storm Control falter late-on in the race. I do like Storm Control, and Kerry Lee has her horses bouncing - she's 3 from 3 in October and this is her only runner today, and maybe I'm overlooking the obvious winner. 

There is an interesting race at Kelso at 3:19pm, a Class 2 limited handicap chase over 3m2f, with just 6 runners. The 11yo's Vintage Clouds and Big River both usually need a run, as does Chapel Stile, and while Empire De Maulde is race-fit I don't think the horse is well handicapped on OR132. Dingo Dollar is a horse that has let his supporters down many times, and I really do not think he's capable of winning a handicap off OR151 if all the other runners in the race run to form. That leaves Fortescue: he's a 7yo who has won 5 of his 9 chase races. Trainer Henry Daly makes his first visit to Kelso in over 5 years and this is his only runner today. He's had a couple of winners at Perth, so a long trip in the horse-box is something he's capable of. The horse jumps well, likes be to be in the van, and odds of 4/1 look proper value as I'd have him the 2/1 fav for this race.

That's my planned wagers today: the 2-mile chase at 3:30pm at Cheltenham looks a bit tough to find value, but I expect a good run from Phil Hobbs' runner Leapaway at odds of 11/2

Selections:
Kelso 3:19pm - FORTESCUE  - £10 win @ 4/1 (available generally)
Cheltenham 2:20pm - JERSEY BEAN - £5 eachway @ 8/1 (Bet Victor & PaddyPower, 5th odds a place 1,2,3,4)


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