The 372nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No blog from me over the weekend as I was in Cornwall seeing my 9yo son. The drive down there on Friday was horrendous, as the rain was terrible. The weekend weather in Penzance was good tho’, with clear skies and some sunshine.
There is some good winter jumps racing today, and hopefully I will find a winner of two. Currently, I am back to full-time blog writing and playing the horses to make ends meet, so there should be an increase in depth to the blogs.
At Carlisle, it is hard to see BOLD SIR BRIAN being beaten in the opening race at 12:50, but he’s not for me at odds-on 4/7 and shorter. A horse that has beaten my wager a couple of times runs in the 1:55 – YOU KNOW YOURSELF. Trainer Sue Smith was someone who I expected to take advantage of the “gap” left by trainer Howard Johnson’s “retirement”, and she’s hit form this last fortnight. Her speciality is chasers and YOU KNOW YOURSELF has a bit of quality about him and he also has the ground he loves, good-to-soft (3 wins from 6 runs). He’s lightly raced for an 8yo and I think he’ll show the fav The Magic Bishop, how it’s done today. Odds of 4/1 look fair, and some bookies are giving sporadic bits of 9/2.
There is an excellent Class 2 “graduation” chase at 2:55 that will be well worth paying attention to. It will be a tough initiation to chasing for the decent staying hurdler Cross Kennon and, at 3m & 110 yards, I think it will be a stiff test of stamina for Aikman. As such, the door is open for SARANDO who comes here with the benefit of a run on the flat 17-days ago to take the race. I highly rate this horse who I think is on a very lenient mark of OR149 given he ran QUITO DE LA ROQUE close at level weights at this trip at Aintree last April and that horse has won 2 Grade 1 chases since including beating Sizing Europe on Saturday. Odds of 2/1 look very generous as I’d have him odds-on at 4/5 for this. He is 40/1 with Ladbrokes for the Hennessey and he’ll likely run off 10st 6lb for that race, but if he wins today those odds will halve. You have been advised!
At Hereford, an old friend of mine runs in JUSTABOUT in the 3:10. This is just the sort of race that I avoid, having 5 runners and all have a chance on the formbook. It is an earlier race that takes my eye here, the 2:15 a “claiming” hurdle over 3m & 110 yards. David Pipe’s American Art makes a long trip for this race, but he does not look reliable despite having won his last 4. American Cricket also won LTO, but he is another I’d not want to take a short price on. Interestingly, Peter Bowen (who also makes a long trip here) sends KRISTALLO back to hurdles after 3 poor runs when chasing. He won over C&D in August and ran well again 7-days later off OR109. The 8lb he gets from the OR119 rated American Art means he should be in with a better than 6/1 chance for this on ground he likes.
Selections:
Carlisle 1:55, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Southwell 2:15, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Carlisle 2:55, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 2/1 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 4pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Showing posts with label Carlisle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carlisle. Show all posts
Monday, 7 November 2011
Thursday, 20 October 2011
From last season HTF list, 2 selections at Carlisle
The 361st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday, but perhaps I should have been a bit more adventuraous with RESTEZEN D’ARMOR. He ran out a very easy winner yesterday as most of the field just did not perform and , with the benefit of hindsight, the morning odds of 2/1 were generous. Charlie Longsdon continued his tremendous form with a double by also winning with VINCITORE. I think this was a good result for form students and, despite there being only 4 runners in the race and the front 2 pulled clear, the runner-up was the Nicholls trained Aldertune. He may have been called a few names for being caught for pace at the business end, but Aldertune is well thought of by Nicholls and is a solid yardstick. VINCITORE won his previous race at Worcester on 23rd September and, so far 3 winners have won NTO (next time out) from that race (from 9 runners). Lastly, I did say TARVINI was looking like his old self and was worthy of an eachway wager and he duly ran 2nd at Fontwell.
Onto today and we have a useful looking meeting at Carlisle with another at Ludlow. Nothing takes my eye at Ludlow, but some of the races look interesting – so perhaps a day for the notebook there.
Carlisle has a couple that I want to be on today. In the 3:55, a class 3 h’cap chase over 3m & 110 yards, it is RAPID INCREASE that jumps out at me. He was on my Horses to Follow list last season when he ran just 3 times, but on the latest of those runs he won very easily at Fontwell over 3m2f. This trip may be on the short side, but Carlisle is a stiff track and this horse could be OR130+; as such odds of 10/1 (with Corals) looks great and with 4 places (16 go to post, barring non-runners) he looks one to be on. He has needed a run in the past, but O’Neill has had a few winners so I’m hoping he will be fit for this.
Next is another of last years Horses to Follow list that never actually ran – GOING WRONG. He is in the 5:00 at Carlisle which is a beginners chase over 2-mile. This trip may be on the short side for him too, but he should have the speed to cope having been a decent hurdler from just a few runs. As last as last February, he was Ferdy Murphy’s horse for the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival so he is clearly well thought of at home at at 10/1 (available generally) he is another decent looking opportunity in a race which (outside the fav) has little depth.
Selections:
Carlisle 3:55, RAPID INCREASE, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Corals)
Carlisle 5:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 4pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections for the blog yesterday, but perhaps I should have been a bit more adventuraous with RESTEZEN D’ARMOR. He ran out a very easy winner yesterday as most of the field just did not perform and , with the benefit of hindsight, the morning odds of 2/1 were generous. Charlie Longsdon continued his tremendous form with a double by also winning with VINCITORE. I think this was a good result for form students and, despite there being only 4 runners in the race and the front 2 pulled clear, the runner-up was the Nicholls trained Aldertune. He may have been called a few names for being caught for pace at the business end, but Aldertune is well thought of by Nicholls and is a solid yardstick. VINCITORE won his previous race at Worcester on 23rd September and, so far 3 winners have won NTO (next time out) from that race (from 9 runners). Lastly, I did say TARVINI was looking like his old self and was worthy of an eachway wager and he duly ran 2nd at Fontwell.
Onto today and we have a useful looking meeting at Carlisle with another at Ludlow. Nothing takes my eye at Ludlow, but some of the races look interesting – so perhaps a day for the notebook there.
Carlisle has a couple that I want to be on today. In the 3:55, a class 3 h’cap chase over 3m & 110 yards, it is RAPID INCREASE that jumps out at me. He was on my Horses to Follow list last season when he ran just 3 times, but on the latest of those runs he won very easily at Fontwell over 3m2f. This trip may be on the short side, but Carlisle is a stiff track and this horse could be OR130+; as such odds of 10/1 (with Corals) looks great and with 4 places (16 go to post, barring non-runners) he looks one to be on. He has needed a run in the past, but O’Neill has had a few winners so I’m hoping he will be fit for this.
Next is another of last years Horses to Follow list that never actually ran – GOING WRONG. He is in the 5:00 at Carlisle which is a beginners chase over 2-mile. This trip may be on the short side for him too, but he should have the speed to cope having been a decent hurdler from just a few runs. As last as last February, he was Ferdy Murphy’s horse for the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival so he is clearly well thought of at home at at 10/1 (available generally) he is another decent looking opportunity in a race which (outside the fav) has little depth.
Selections:
Carlisle 3:55, RAPID INCREASE, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Corals)
Carlisle 5:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 4pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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