The 436th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
It's here!
The 2012 Cheltenham Festival Bulletin has now been published and initial copies were sent out by email this evening to those who have made a £5 donation to the blog.
If you want a copy, you know what to do, and that's donate £5 using the donate button above. What you will receive is a 16-page, 9500 word document that looks at every race in the Festival, detailing important trends, potential antepost selections, in-running strategies, and provides 3 rock solid guides to every race to help you sort thru' the chaff and produce a shortlist from which (hopefully) you'll find the winners.
That's it for me for a few days. I've spent the best part of 3-weeks and over 50 hours writing and researching the bulletin and I need a break. So, I'm off to Cornwall for a long weekend and will be back on Monday. Don't worry, I'm taking my laptop with me, so if you want a copy of the bulletin send me a donation and I'll send you a copy.
All the best.
Showing posts with label Narrow the Field. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Narrow the Field. Show all posts
Wednesday, 15 February 2012
Monday, 26 December 2011
Boxing Day spectacular
The 411th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
What a day we have in store today. Perhaps the most intriguing days racing we’ve had for many a day with reputations to be earned, restored and confirmed.
We have a huge amount of racing with meetings up and down the country so it won’t be possible to focus on it all.
Kempton hosts the day’s feature meeting and what a cracker of a day. The King George VI Chase sees the return of the battle for supremacy of Long Run and Kauto Star. Defending champion Long Run should be the fav for the race but odds of 11/8 are too short for me. I reckon that Long Run rates 170 (not OR182, and certainly not RPR187) and that puts him within striking distance of Diamond Harry if he’s in the form that he won the 2010 Hennessey Gold Cup. Both horses should come on for their run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock won by Kauto Star. As for Kauto, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will maintain the form of his Betfair Chase win but he may need to improve on that run to win today; the reason why is that this renewal looks one of the best we’ve seen in recent years. Captain Chris could well be a 170+ chaser in time, but he’s had an interrupted preparation and as such it is going to be a superlative performance for him to win. I really cannot see Master Minded staying this trip as the pace will be hot from the off with Golan Way almost certainly taking-on Kauto Star for the lead. He’s been called a few names, but Somersby is consistent and he’s also something to prove on his latest run. If he recaptures his best form then he could still be there in with a chance at the 2nd-last. I would make Long Run the 5/2 fav with Kauto Star at 9/2 and DIAMOND HARRY at 6/1 and that makes him the eachway value at 20/1 (Ladbrokes).
On the lead-up to the King George, we have a couple of novice chases which should see GRANDS CRUS winning the Feltham at 2:00, and before that the novice handicap looks very competitive tho’ I do like the chance of BLESS THE WINGS (9/1 with Stan James). Earlier this year, BINOCULAR won the previous Christmas Hurdle and he should do so again, unless Nicholl’s Rock On Ruby is the real-deal. I’d have BINOCULAR at 5/4 for this as he should run 165+ today and that should be good enough.
It’s the last race on the Kempton card that should provide me with a wager, and I’ve been waiting for PANTXOA to step up in trip from 2-mile and this 2m5f should prove his best. He is 9/1 for this with William Hill, quarter-odds to 4-places.
Wetherby has as its feature the Rowland Meyrick Chase at 1:45 and this race is as good as any handicap you’ll see. The fav Always Right will be taken on up front by Midnight Chase and that could be their undoing. Both are exceptional chasers and Always Right could end up the equal of Midnight Chase this season which suggests he’s well-in today. Knockara Beau also looks to be well-handicapped off OR143, but I feel he wants extreme trips of 3m4f+ to show his best. As such, I’m sticking with my Hennessey selection SARANDO who I fell will appreciate today’s easier “soft” going. He’s at 8/1 which is fair, but I’d hope for a little more perhaps 10/1. One that could shake them all up if he continues his improvement is HELPSTON who runs from 7lb out of the handicap and is 20/1, but he’s never looked his best on soft going.
On day’s like this it pays to pick and choose your targets as there will be plenty of value out there and you cannot possibly consider all the racing. The top races will be well-covered by the market, so look for some of the smaller races at the other meetings. Also pay attention to non-runners, as what may be a good price in the morning may not be by race-time; and vice versa. You may think your selection has a fair chance but if the danger is a non-runner suddenly yours is well-in. I was looking at Wincanton’s 1:40 and DIEREADH RE looked huge at 3/1 in the morning papers, but a couple of non-runners means the price has collapsed to 13/8. That’s no good to me, but if you’re having a multiple bet to small stakes for fun, then this is a decent addition. Another is WIDE RECIEVER at Market Rasen in the 1:35.
At Wincanton, SHAKING HANDS runs in the class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 renewing rivalry with Drybrook Bedouin on 2lb better terms. Both will enjoy this trip, tho’ it will suit SHAKING HANDS better, and he can win at useful odds of 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed).
Kim Bailey has won the handicap chase at Huntingdon (12:45) 3 times in recent years, and he’s entered BISHOPHILL JACK a 5yo who won his first chase LTO. That wasn’t great form, but this isn’t that competitive a race, and tho’ odds of 5/2 are skinny he should do the biz.
I’m going to keep looking at today’s racing as there will be plenty of fluctuation in the markets and opportunities will arise. If I spot any, then I will try and post a comment to this blog, but more likely I will advise of the fact on twitter via @wayward_lad.
Selections:
Kempton 3:40, PANTXOA, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wetherby 1:45, SARANDO, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 2:50, SHAKING HANDS, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it. The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain so, if you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.
All comments are welcome.
What a day we have in store today. Perhaps the most intriguing days racing we’ve had for many a day with reputations to be earned, restored and confirmed.
We have a huge amount of racing with meetings up and down the country so it won’t be possible to focus on it all.
Kempton hosts the day’s feature meeting and what a cracker of a day. The King George VI Chase sees the return of the battle for supremacy of Long Run and Kauto Star. Defending champion Long Run should be the fav for the race but odds of 11/8 are too short for me. I reckon that Long Run rates 170 (not OR182, and certainly not RPR187) and that puts him within striking distance of Diamond Harry if he’s in the form that he won the 2010 Hennessey Gold Cup. Both horses should come on for their run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock won by Kauto Star. As for Kauto, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will maintain the form of his Betfair Chase win but he may need to improve on that run to win today; the reason why is that this renewal looks one of the best we’ve seen in recent years. Captain Chris could well be a 170+ chaser in time, but he’s had an interrupted preparation and as such it is going to be a superlative performance for him to win. I really cannot see Master Minded staying this trip as the pace will be hot from the off with Golan Way almost certainly taking-on Kauto Star for the lead. He’s been called a few names, but Somersby is consistent and he’s also something to prove on his latest run. If he recaptures his best form then he could still be there in with a chance at the 2nd-last. I would make Long Run the 5/2 fav with Kauto Star at 9/2 and DIAMOND HARRY at 6/1 and that makes him the eachway value at 20/1 (Ladbrokes).
On the lead-up to the King George, we have a couple of novice chases which should see GRANDS CRUS winning the Feltham at 2:00, and before that the novice handicap looks very competitive tho’ I do like the chance of BLESS THE WINGS (9/1 with Stan James). Earlier this year, BINOCULAR won the previous Christmas Hurdle and he should do so again, unless Nicholl’s Rock On Ruby is the real-deal. I’d have BINOCULAR at 5/4 for this as he should run 165+ today and that should be good enough.
It’s the last race on the Kempton card that should provide me with a wager, and I’ve been waiting for PANTXOA to step up in trip from 2-mile and this 2m5f should prove his best. He is 9/1 for this with William Hill, quarter-odds to 4-places.
Wetherby has as its feature the Rowland Meyrick Chase at 1:45 and this race is as good as any handicap you’ll see. The fav Always Right will be taken on up front by Midnight Chase and that could be their undoing. Both are exceptional chasers and Always Right could end up the equal of Midnight Chase this season which suggests he’s well-in today. Knockara Beau also looks to be well-handicapped off OR143, but I feel he wants extreme trips of 3m4f+ to show his best. As such, I’m sticking with my Hennessey selection SARANDO who I fell will appreciate today’s easier “soft” going. He’s at 8/1 which is fair, but I’d hope for a little more perhaps 10/1. One that could shake them all up if he continues his improvement is HELPSTON who runs from 7lb out of the handicap and is 20/1, but he’s never looked his best on soft going.
On day’s like this it pays to pick and choose your targets as there will be plenty of value out there and you cannot possibly consider all the racing. The top races will be well-covered by the market, so look for some of the smaller races at the other meetings. Also pay attention to non-runners, as what may be a good price in the morning may not be by race-time; and vice versa. You may think your selection has a fair chance but if the danger is a non-runner suddenly yours is well-in. I was looking at Wincanton’s 1:40 and DIEREADH RE looked huge at 3/1 in the morning papers, but a couple of non-runners means the price has collapsed to 13/8. That’s no good to me, but if you’re having a multiple bet to small stakes for fun, then this is a decent addition. Another is WIDE RECIEVER at Market Rasen in the 1:35.
At Wincanton, SHAKING HANDS runs in the class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 renewing rivalry with Drybrook Bedouin on 2lb better terms. Both will enjoy this trip, tho’ it will suit SHAKING HANDS better, and he can win at useful odds of 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed).
Kim Bailey has won the handicap chase at Huntingdon (12:45) 3 times in recent years, and he’s entered BISHOPHILL JACK a 5yo who won his first chase LTO. That wasn’t great form, but this isn’t that competitive a race, and tho’ odds of 5/2 are skinny he should do the biz.
I’m going to keep looking at today’s racing as there will be plenty of fluctuation in the markets and opportunities will arise. If I spot any, then I will try and post a comment to this blog, but more likely I will advise of the fact on twitter via @wayward_lad.
Selections:
Kempton 3:40, PANTXOA, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wetherby 1:45, SARANDO, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 2:50, SHAKING HANDS, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it. The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain so, if you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.
All comments are welcome.
Saturday, 3 December 2011
Tremendous 12/1 winner yesterday!
The 395th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 20
Winners = 5
Points staked = 25pts
Profit in month = 18.60pts (ROI = 74.40%)
Tremendous result for the blog yesterday when GOLAN WAY repaid my faith in his form at Aintree last April (when 3rd in the John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase). That form has become the most reliable of last season’s novice chases (the 1st-3 have now won 4 top-chases between them) and at the time it was “rubbished” by renowned form readers – but not me!
I reckon GOLAN WAY ran just below that form yesterday and recorded a 158 performance (I rated his run at Aintree at 159) whereas BOSTONS ANGEL matched his form of the RSA Chase.
What it means is that QUITO DE LA ROQUE really is a proper 165+ chaser (maybe 170+) and should be under 8/1 for the Gold Cup. You have been told, and the facts stand-up for themselves.
I was disappointed with SIZING SYMPHONY, but he really should not have been so long in the odds as 10/1 and clearly, there was something amiss with him – which does not bode well for SIZING EUROPE today.
Anyway, 11pts profit on the day from 2pts staked. What is disappointing is that from the 80-odd regular visitors to the site (and I’m talking about those who have visited more than 10 times) none have (yet) made a donation for the tremendous performance of my selections since 1st November – 18.60pts profit which is a 74.40% return on investment (25pts). I wager to £40 a point and I am £744 in profit for the month.
Onto today, we have a busy day with 4 top meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow, and Wetherby.
At Aintree in the 12:35, FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent but over an extra half-mile today he may be found out.
The Becher Chase at 2:10 will be a spectacle, and will also be the 1st race over the National fences televised by Channel 4 Racing (which has to be the future). Good luck to Channel 4. From my alert list, ANOTHER PALM is a horse I’ve noted as having abundant stamina and usually runs up with the leaders. That will hold him in good stead and odds of 10/1 (Chandlers, Bet365, Hills) suggest he’s worth a small each-way wager.
Today’s premier meeting is at Sandown, and in the Tingle Creek Chase at 3:05, I reckon you can oppose the fav Sizing Europe (see comments above). One of my 3-to-Follow for this jumps season is WISHFUL THINKING and this trip and course will suit him perfectly. If he can’t win today, he won’t be a Grade 1 horse this season. Sportingodds are offering to refund your stakes (up to £50) if Sizing Europe wins and, as he’s the only horse I can see in this field beating WISHFUL THINKING, then I’d take the 11/4 on offer with them. Kauto Stone has potential, but does not have the form in the book.
The “Badger” form was given a huge boost by Benbane Head yesterday (was 2nd to GOLAN WAY) and so I reckon MEANUS DANDY can take the London National at 3:40. Do It For Dalkey is effectively up 18lb for his LTO win and I feel that is too much and he’s facing top performers here. MEANUS DANDY is a course winner (as is Any Currency) and he could be 10lb better than his OR140 rating – which cannot be said of the others. Odds of 11/2 are very fair, as I’d have him the 7/2 fav.
Chepstow has heavy ground and that fills me with dread as it is a testing track at the best of times. It could make for harrowing viewing on the tv.
I have no time to study Wetherby and so no selections for that meeting.
Selections:
Sandown 3:40, MEANUS DANDY, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 20
Winners = 5
Points staked = 25pts
Profit in month = 18.60pts (ROI = 74.40%)
Tremendous result for the blog yesterday when GOLAN WAY repaid my faith in his form at Aintree last April (when 3rd in the John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase). That form has become the most reliable of last season’s novice chases (the 1st-3 have now won 4 top-chases between them) and at the time it was “rubbished” by renowned form readers – but not me!
I reckon GOLAN WAY ran just below that form yesterday and recorded a 158 performance (I rated his run at Aintree at 159) whereas BOSTONS ANGEL matched his form of the RSA Chase.
What it means is that QUITO DE LA ROQUE really is a proper 165+ chaser (maybe 170+) and should be under 8/1 for the Gold Cup. You have been told, and the facts stand-up for themselves.
I was disappointed with SIZING SYMPHONY, but he really should not have been so long in the odds as 10/1 and clearly, there was something amiss with him – which does not bode well for SIZING EUROPE today.
Anyway, 11pts profit on the day from 2pts staked. What is disappointing is that from the 80-odd regular visitors to the site (and I’m talking about those who have visited more than 10 times) none have (yet) made a donation for the tremendous performance of my selections since 1st November – 18.60pts profit which is a 74.40% return on investment (25pts). I wager to £40 a point and I am £744 in profit for the month.
Onto today, we have a busy day with 4 top meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow, and Wetherby.
At Aintree in the 12:35, FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent but over an extra half-mile today he may be found out.
The Becher Chase at 2:10 will be a spectacle, and will also be the 1st race over the National fences televised by Channel 4 Racing (which has to be the future). Good luck to Channel 4. From my alert list, ANOTHER PALM is a horse I’ve noted as having abundant stamina and usually runs up with the leaders. That will hold him in good stead and odds of 10/1 (Chandlers, Bet365, Hills) suggest he’s worth a small each-way wager.
Today’s premier meeting is at Sandown, and in the Tingle Creek Chase at 3:05, I reckon you can oppose the fav Sizing Europe (see comments above). One of my 3-to-Follow for this jumps season is WISHFUL THINKING and this trip and course will suit him perfectly. If he can’t win today, he won’t be a Grade 1 horse this season. Sportingodds are offering to refund your stakes (up to £50) if Sizing Europe wins and, as he’s the only horse I can see in this field beating WISHFUL THINKING, then I’d take the 11/4 on offer with them. Kauto Stone has potential, but does not have the form in the book.
The “Badger” form was given a huge boost by Benbane Head yesterday (was 2nd to GOLAN WAY) and so I reckon MEANUS DANDY can take the London National at 3:40. Do It For Dalkey is effectively up 18lb for his LTO win and I feel that is too much and he’s facing top performers here. MEANUS DANDY is a course winner (as is Any Currency) and he could be 10lb better than his OR140 rating – which cannot be said of the others. Odds of 11/2 are very fair, as I’d have him the 7/2 fav.
Chepstow has heavy ground and that fills me with dread as it is a testing track at the best of times. It could make for harrowing viewing on the tv.
I have no time to study Wetherby and so no selections for that meeting.
Selections:
Sandown 3:40, MEANUS DANDY, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 1 December 2011
Venetia Williams back on form
The 393rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.
No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.
Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.
This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.
At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.
The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.
The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.
I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.
No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.
Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.
This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.
At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.
The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.
The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.
I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 30 November 2011
Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort'men
The 392nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)
Final day of November, and a great result for the month; the full results being:-
1st Nov, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4; unplaced …2.00pts lost
7th Nov, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
7th Nov, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
7th Nov, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 7/2; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
8th Nov, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
9th Nov, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
9th Nov, SANGFROID, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
11th Nov, CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew; unplaced …2.00pts lost
12th Nov, WOLF MOON, 1pt win; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
15th Nov, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
16th Nov, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win; lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
19th Nov, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew; WON @ 8/1 …9.60pts PROFIT
21st Nov, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win; lost (3rd of 5) …1.00pts lost
25th Nov, AIGLE D'OR, 2pts win; unplaced …2.00pts lost
26th Nov, WYKE HILL, 1pt win; Fell …1.00pts lost
26th Nov, HUMBIE, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
Selections for November 2011 = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
As can be seen, I am no follower of the fav’s and short-priced horses so the strike-rate of winners to runners is not huge – but, at the end of the day, I’m in profit.
There has been no blog since Sunday as the racing has been dire. To be fair, today’s racing is not much better.
At Hereford, Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort’men, so he must think that the horse has a future over fences. Always best watched these novice chases, especially when horses are jumping a fence for the 1st time in public. One I will be keeping an eye on is TIGER O’TOOLE who is not a bad hurdler (OR136) and his usualy style of running (held-up) could aid him here today over the first couple of fences by enabling to have a look at them and get into a rhythm. He’s 10/1 generally, and I’d rather have a “fiver” on him than risk £25 on one of the 7/4 joint-favs who head the market with the prospect of a similar return.
Later at Hereford, there is an interesting 2-mile h’cap chase at 2:50pm. The fav is Bradford Boris who is on my alert list, but I feel this trip is a bit on the short side for him and that he would prefer another half-mile. He will need to lead and set a decent pace to expose the others in the race, however his jumping hasn’t been fluent in the past. As such, I’m looking elsewhere in the race and Evan Williams (also trainer of Tiger O’Toole) sends the unexposed WESTER ROSS for this. Williams has his stable in top form (8 wins from 21 rnrs in past 14-days) and he has a 21% strike rate with chasers at Hereford. WESTER ROSS appreciated the drop to 2-mile LTO (he does not stay much further) and even tho’ he’s got a 7lb penalty, he is officially 2lb well-in for this. Odds of 9/2 look fair.
David Pipe sends out only one runner today – Poole Master in the 12:40 at Uttoxeter, interesting!
Neil Mulholland also has only one runner today – Big Knickers in the 3:40 at Uttoxeter. The horse looks well handicapped on his run when 2nd to E Street Boy but whether he will stay 3-mile today is the question.
No selections today, I will choose to end the month of November in profit.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)
Final day of November, and a great result for the month; the full results being:-
1st Nov, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4; unplaced …2.00pts lost
7th Nov, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
7th Nov, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
7th Nov, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 7/2; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
8th Nov, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
9th Nov, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
9th Nov, SANGFROID, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
11th Nov, CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew; unplaced …2.00pts lost
12th Nov, WOLF MOON, 1pt win; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
15th Nov, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
16th Nov, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win; lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
19th Nov, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew; WON @ 8/1 …9.60pts PROFIT
21st Nov, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win; lost (3rd of 5) …1.00pts lost
25th Nov, AIGLE D'OR, 2pts win; unplaced …2.00pts lost
26th Nov, WYKE HILL, 1pt win; Fell …1.00pts lost
26th Nov, HUMBIE, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
Selections for November 2011 = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)
As can be seen, I am no follower of the fav’s and short-priced horses so the strike-rate of winners to runners is not huge – but, at the end of the day, I’m in profit.
There has been no blog since Sunday as the racing has been dire. To be fair, today’s racing is not much better.
At Hereford, Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort’men, so he must think that the horse has a future over fences. Always best watched these novice chases, especially when horses are jumping a fence for the 1st time in public. One I will be keeping an eye on is TIGER O’TOOLE who is not a bad hurdler (OR136) and his usualy style of running (held-up) could aid him here today over the first couple of fences by enabling to have a look at them and get into a rhythm. He’s 10/1 generally, and I’d rather have a “fiver” on him than risk £25 on one of the 7/4 joint-favs who head the market with the prospect of a similar return.
Later at Hereford, there is an interesting 2-mile h’cap chase at 2:50pm. The fav is Bradford Boris who is on my alert list, but I feel this trip is a bit on the short side for him and that he would prefer another half-mile. He will need to lead and set a decent pace to expose the others in the race, however his jumping hasn’t been fluent in the past. As such, I’m looking elsewhere in the race and Evan Williams (also trainer of Tiger O’Toole) sends the unexposed WESTER ROSS for this. Williams has his stable in top form (8 wins from 21 rnrs in past 14-days) and he has a 21% strike rate with chasers at Hereford. WESTER ROSS appreciated the drop to 2-mile LTO (he does not stay much further) and even tho’ he’s got a 7lb penalty, he is officially 2lb well-in for this. Odds of 9/2 look fair.
David Pipe sends out only one runner today – Poole Master in the 12:40 at Uttoxeter, interesting!
Neil Mulholland also has only one runner today – Big Knickers in the 3:40 at Uttoxeter. The horse looks well handicapped on his run when 2nd to E Street Boy but whether he will stay 3-mile today is the question.
No selections today, I will choose to end the month of November in profit.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 26 November 2011
Hennessey Gold Cup ay Newbury
The 390th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 25.5525pts
Return on Investment = 11.94% (total stakes, 214pts)
Yesterday’s selection, AIGLE D’OR, ran a stinker and was well beaten. The only consolation was that I read the market right as he started the 6/4 fav. I was also wrong about Sivola De Sivola in the 3-mile hurdle as I thought he was so unlikely to get the trip that I place-laid him at “evens” on the exchanges. So, 2pts lost on the day – let’s move on.
It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, which is 2nd only to the Grand National in chasing handicaps; in fact this race is a great form-guide to the Grand National, so watch and take note. Regular readers will know that on 7th November I recommended taking the 40/1 about SARANDO for this, and I am not going to swap allegiance now: he’s 14/1 generally (he is 20/1 with Corals). I really think he has an excellent chance in this race, despite a 4lb penalty for his LTO win.
On a busy day like today, 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Bangor and Towcester, it is impossible for me to review every race; so I drop back onto my horse alerts for guidance.
At Newcastle, it is the Fighting Fifth Grade 1 hurdle and tho’ Binocular should win this if at his peak, he usually needs a race and so the value call is race-fit OVERTURN at 3/1. At 3:30, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks to be an opportunity for the improving HUMBIE (a 3 parts bro’ to Denman) as he will enjoy the going and get this trip. That can’t be said for Minella Theatre, and Hey Big Spender will need a personal best to win this off OR150 giving 26lb to HUMBIE who is 6/1.
At Bangor, I was on WOLF MOON when he last ran, and he is well placed to recoup losses today in the 1:20, a 3-mile h’cap chase. However, Alan Kings horses are running well (if not winning) in recent days, and Quotica De Poyans has been gambled on this morning.
Nothing on my alert list is running at Towcester.
Onto Newbury and, in the 1:30, if were not for the Henderson runner Master Fiddle then WYKE HILL would probably be under 3/1 for this. Not every Henderson horse wins (take my selection y’day!) and this trip is a doubt for Master Fiddle as his half-bro’ did not get it. WYKE HILL will likely make all and has absolutely no stamina doubts, he also sets a good pace. Therefore, odds of 6/1 look very generous.
In the 2:05, there are 2 from my alert list in DREAM FUNCTION ( a sister to Captain Chris) and RAYA STAR. This is a tough race for me to crack, and of the two I’d probably go for RAYA STAR, but this is a no-bet race for me.
BIG BUCKS will win the Long Distance Hurdle. Full stop.
I’m already on SARANDO in the Hennessey at 3:10, but from my alert list I reckon MUIRHEAD who won the Munster National in October, has a great eachway chance in a race that will play to his strengths, and at 25/1 with a bookie paying quarter-odds to 5-places (Bet365) he will be staying-on like a train come the final mile.
In the last race on the card, my alert list suggests PERSIAN GATES. He fell LTO when meeting Fistral Beach on 6lb worse terms than today. Unfortunately, he is apt to hit 1 or 2 fences and Newbury takes no prisoners. Another no-bet race for me.
Selection:
Newbury 1:30, WYKE HILL, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Newcastle 3:30, HUMBIE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 25.5525pts
Return on Investment = 11.94% (total stakes, 214pts)
Yesterday’s selection, AIGLE D’OR, ran a stinker and was well beaten. The only consolation was that I read the market right as he started the 6/4 fav. I was also wrong about Sivola De Sivola in the 3-mile hurdle as I thought he was so unlikely to get the trip that I place-laid him at “evens” on the exchanges. So, 2pts lost on the day – let’s move on.
It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, which is 2nd only to the Grand National in chasing handicaps; in fact this race is a great form-guide to the Grand National, so watch and take note. Regular readers will know that on 7th November I recommended taking the 40/1 about SARANDO for this, and I am not going to swap allegiance now: he’s 14/1 generally (he is 20/1 with Corals). I really think he has an excellent chance in this race, despite a 4lb penalty for his LTO win.
On a busy day like today, 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Bangor and Towcester, it is impossible for me to review every race; so I drop back onto my horse alerts for guidance.
At Newcastle, it is the Fighting Fifth Grade 1 hurdle and tho’ Binocular should win this if at his peak, he usually needs a race and so the value call is race-fit OVERTURN at 3/1. At 3:30, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks to be an opportunity for the improving HUMBIE (a 3 parts bro’ to Denman) as he will enjoy the going and get this trip. That can’t be said for Minella Theatre, and Hey Big Spender will need a personal best to win this off OR150 giving 26lb to HUMBIE who is 6/1.
At Bangor, I was on WOLF MOON when he last ran, and he is well placed to recoup losses today in the 1:20, a 3-mile h’cap chase. However, Alan Kings horses are running well (if not winning) in recent days, and Quotica De Poyans has been gambled on this morning.
Nothing on my alert list is running at Towcester.
Onto Newbury and, in the 1:30, if were not for the Henderson runner Master Fiddle then WYKE HILL would probably be under 3/1 for this. Not every Henderson horse wins (take my selection y’day!) and this trip is a doubt for Master Fiddle as his half-bro’ did not get it. WYKE HILL will likely make all and has absolutely no stamina doubts, he also sets a good pace. Therefore, odds of 6/1 look very generous.
In the 2:05, there are 2 from my alert list in DREAM FUNCTION ( a sister to Captain Chris) and RAYA STAR. This is a tough race for me to crack, and of the two I’d probably go for RAYA STAR, but this is a no-bet race for me.
BIG BUCKS will win the Long Distance Hurdle. Full stop.
I’m already on SARANDO in the Hennessey at 3:10, but from my alert list I reckon MUIRHEAD who won the Munster National in October, has a great eachway chance in a race that will play to his strengths, and at 25/1 with a bookie paying quarter-odds to 5-places (Bet365) he will be staying-on like a train come the final mile.
In the last race on the card, my alert list suggests PERSIAN GATES. He fell LTO when meeting Fistral Beach on 6lb worse terms than today. Unfortunately, he is apt to hit 1 or 2 fences and Newbury takes no prisoners. Another no-bet race for me.
Selection:
Newbury 1:30, WYKE HILL, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Newcastle 3:30, HUMBIE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 25 November 2011
The money is going down today!
The 389th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ I put in a good word for KENTFORD GREY LADY and she ran out a comfortable winner at 15/8. She could be worth noting, as her dam won the Mares’ novices hurdle final (listed race) over 2m5f in 2004, and was rated OR112. Also, her dam’s half-bro was 4th in the Racing Post Chase and was rated OR135 as a chaser – so there is plenty of talent in the dam-side.
GRANDS CRUS had no problems in his novice chase and remains on-course for a Festival appearance – but which race?
Another mentioned on the blog was THE COCKNEY MACKEM and he fell mid-race with a very “novice” jump (took off too early and landed on the fence). As such, he should stay on OR122 and is – in my opinion – on a lenient mark.
The handicap chace that I looked at was won by the 5yo and bottom-weight THAT’LLDOBOY, trained by Paul Nicholls. This one is clearly on the upgrade still, but the opposition fell away rapidly over the final fences (Buffalo Bob is well-off his best form) so let’s hope the handicapper does not go overboard on this effort.
There are 3 jumps meetings today, but I will only concern myself with that at Newbury as Doncaster and Musselburgh don’t have wagering opportunities (that’s me being polite!). That said, the 2:35 at Doncaster looks to have some potential (class 3 chase over 2m3f), but good-to-firm going at this time of year scares me a bit. Also, Tarvini (2:00, 3-mile h’cap hurdle) remains well handicapped on old form (has won off OR120, and runs off OR110 today with a 10lb claimer riding).
Newbury has what looks to be an ordinary meeting for the eve of the Hennessey Gold Cup, but the novice chase at 1:35 will be great to watch. Will Bobs Worth take to fences? Can Cue Card jump a fence at speed? Has Spirit River “grown” since last season when a novice chasing flop? Me, I will be having a sneaky couple of quid on MAD MOOSE at 20/1 as he’s a rock-solid OR137 chaser having 6 chase runs (won 2, placed in 3) under his belt and not fallen.
I’ll give the novice h’cap chase a miss and look at the 2:45, the 3-mile h’cap hurdle (class 3). My alert list notes tell me Caddie Master has not stopped improving, but on good-to-soft or worse he’s 0 from 4, but on good going or quicker he’s 3 from 5. OK, he was only btn a short-head on soft going LTO, but the race was not run in a fast time – as such, I think he discounts that form and that of Frontier Dancer. Paul Nicholls 1st-string Like Minded has not shaped like a OR130 horse, so I think he’s got too much on his plate. Sivola De Sivola did not stay 2m5f LTO, so 3-mile has to be a question-mark for him. Artic Court is Jim Goldie’s first runner here, and he’s never had a winner south of Bangor-on-Dee, so that has to be a negative. I don’t think Carribs Leap is up to this level. The Shy Man runs best at this time of year and won well LTO, so he could well be involved but I can’t see him winning. Kasbadali is thought to go best right-handed and is another with stamina to prove. One I like the look of is the Paul Nicholls 2nd-string, PRINCE TOM with 7lb claimer Harry Derham riding. He ran a couple of great races last season, is proven to stay this trip and ran well in a top handicap LTO in a fast time. At 12/1 he looks a value wager, but this is such a competitive race I’m going to bottle-out again and pass on this one.
In the 3:15, last year’s winner AIGLE D’OR has only had this race as his target since running at the Galway Festival. Trainer Nicky Henderson has an awful record in Ireland (why does he bother going?) so I can ignore that run and the earlier one at Punchestown. His Festival run was not as bad as his placing suggests as he did not cope well with the large field of 20 runners. But this horse (2nd btn a head in the Greatwood Hurdle of 2008 with 11st 5lb) has a touch of class about him. As such, I reckon he will beat Rileyev. It is a tough induction for Hold Fast so odds about him of 4/1 are no value at all. Oh Crick could be a contender if recapturing his best form of 2-years ago off OR139 (was rated OR160 after a 5th in QMCC of 2010), but that’s unlikely. AIGLE D’OR is 9/4 with several bookies, and I reckon he should be more like 6/4 as he will be well prepared for this race. He is going to be a 2pts win wager (see my adjacent page with total record of 2pts win wagers).
Selection:
Newbury 3:15, AIGLE D’OR, 2pts win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Also, take a look at a previous blog page for 7th November - are you on SARANDO at 40/1 for the Hennessey tomorrow?
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ I put in a good word for KENTFORD GREY LADY and she ran out a comfortable winner at 15/8. She could be worth noting, as her dam won the Mares’ novices hurdle final (listed race) over 2m5f in 2004, and was rated OR112. Also, her dam’s half-bro was 4th in the Racing Post Chase and was rated OR135 as a chaser – so there is plenty of talent in the dam-side.
GRANDS CRUS had no problems in his novice chase and remains on-course for a Festival appearance – but which race?
Another mentioned on the blog was THE COCKNEY MACKEM and he fell mid-race with a very “novice” jump (took off too early and landed on the fence). As such, he should stay on OR122 and is – in my opinion – on a lenient mark.
The handicap chace that I looked at was won by the 5yo and bottom-weight THAT’LLDOBOY, trained by Paul Nicholls. This one is clearly on the upgrade still, but the opposition fell away rapidly over the final fences (Buffalo Bob is well-off his best form) so let’s hope the handicapper does not go overboard on this effort.
There are 3 jumps meetings today, but I will only concern myself with that at Newbury as Doncaster and Musselburgh don’t have wagering opportunities (that’s me being polite!). That said, the 2:35 at Doncaster looks to have some potential (class 3 chase over 2m3f), but good-to-firm going at this time of year scares me a bit. Also, Tarvini (2:00, 3-mile h’cap hurdle) remains well handicapped on old form (has won off OR120, and runs off OR110 today with a 10lb claimer riding).
Newbury has what looks to be an ordinary meeting for the eve of the Hennessey Gold Cup, but the novice chase at 1:35 will be great to watch. Will Bobs Worth take to fences? Can Cue Card jump a fence at speed? Has Spirit River “grown” since last season when a novice chasing flop? Me, I will be having a sneaky couple of quid on MAD MOOSE at 20/1 as he’s a rock-solid OR137 chaser having 6 chase runs (won 2, placed in 3) under his belt and not fallen.
I’ll give the novice h’cap chase a miss and look at the 2:45, the 3-mile h’cap hurdle (class 3). My alert list notes tell me Caddie Master has not stopped improving, but on good-to-soft or worse he’s 0 from 4, but on good going or quicker he’s 3 from 5. OK, he was only btn a short-head on soft going LTO, but the race was not run in a fast time – as such, I think he discounts that form and that of Frontier Dancer. Paul Nicholls 1st-string Like Minded has not shaped like a OR130 horse, so I think he’s got too much on his plate. Sivola De Sivola did not stay 2m5f LTO, so 3-mile has to be a question-mark for him. Artic Court is Jim Goldie’s first runner here, and he’s never had a winner south of Bangor-on-Dee, so that has to be a negative. I don’t think Carribs Leap is up to this level. The Shy Man runs best at this time of year and won well LTO, so he could well be involved but I can’t see him winning. Kasbadali is thought to go best right-handed and is another with stamina to prove. One I like the look of is the Paul Nicholls 2nd-string, PRINCE TOM with 7lb claimer Harry Derham riding. He ran a couple of great races last season, is proven to stay this trip and ran well in a top handicap LTO in a fast time. At 12/1 he looks a value wager, but this is such a competitive race I’m going to bottle-out again and pass on this one.
In the 3:15, last year’s winner AIGLE D’OR has only had this race as his target since running at the Galway Festival. Trainer Nicky Henderson has an awful record in Ireland (why does he bother going?) so I can ignore that run and the earlier one at Punchestown. His Festival run was not as bad as his placing suggests as he did not cope well with the large field of 20 runners. But this horse (2nd btn a head in the Greatwood Hurdle of 2008 with 11st 5lb) has a touch of class about him. As such, I reckon he will beat Rileyev. It is a tough induction for Hold Fast so odds about him of 4/1 are no value at all. Oh Crick could be a contender if recapturing his best form of 2-years ago off OR139 (was rated OR160 after a 5th in QMCC of 2010), but that’s unlikely. AIGLE D’OR is 9/4 with several bookies, and I reckon he should be more like 6/4 as he will be well prepared for this race. He is going to be a 2pts win wager (see my adjacent page with total record of 2pts win wagers).
Selection:
Newbury 3:15, AIGLE D’OR, 2pts win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Also, take a look at a previous blog page for 7th November - are you on SARANDO at 40/1 for the Hennessey tomorrow?
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 24 November 2011
Grands Crus to make another step towards the Arkle
The 388th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
No selections for the blog yesterday as I managed to persuade myself that recommending a wager on MONSIEUR JORDAIN was not a good idea despite him being an improving 5yo chaser who was guaranteed to stay the 2m 6f &110 yard trip. He went and won at 10/1 benefiting from the last fence fall of the favourite Dusky Bob; but that one was probably tiring anyway (the reason for the fall?) and may not held onto the lead anyhow. At least I know I’m on the right track reading the form-lines as I read that race near perfect. MONSIEUR JORDAIN was only 7/1 in the morning when I posted my blog, which was a big reason why he wasn’t a selection. I managed to obtain 12.50 on Betfair just before the off, which is equivalent to 11/1, and I traded out my stake at 3.10.
We have 3 jumps cards at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter today, so let’s see what’s in store.
At Newbury, I’m looking to oppose the fav in the opener with Emma Lavelle’s KENTFORD GREY LADY as those 2 that beat here LTO are above average, and this is a much easier task. Next-up, the novice chase at 1:00 has a Henderson chasing debutant in Celtus and that should allow one from my alert list THE COCKNEY MACKEM to go off at a bit of value. He easily has the best chasing form in this race and should be odds-on; instead, we could get 9/4. Edgardo Sol who beat him a nose LTO has won again since and is rated OR134, and THE COCKNEY MACKEM is on a par with that. At 1:35, the novice h’cap hurdle over 2m5f has been won by some decent horses in recent years and I have PROMISED WINGS on my alert list after he lost LTO by demolishing the final hurdle. That said, I’m not sure an extra furlong will be to his good, and the fav Sentimental Journey could prove hard to beat in what looks a competitive race.
GRANDS CRUS reappears in the 2:10 and it is most unlikely that he won’t win this, tho’ Viking Blond will be no pushover. It’s hard to know what to make of Sonofvic until he jumps a fence in public.
Buffalo Bob won the 2:45 last year, but his trainer Kim Bailey has his stable in poor form and he ran a stinker LTO (with my money on and as a selection for the blog). Current fav Zarrafakt hacked-up on his seasonal debut last season but then flopped in this and again in the Spring. I don’t think he can be relied upon, and neither can Rackham Lerouge. That’lldoboy was the main beneficiary of tardy jumping by his rivals LTO and that form could be unreliable. Leading Contender does not do well in fields of more than 6 runners, and so that brings me to PIRAYA. He stays this trip, will appreciate the going and he has run well at this meeting for the past 2 seasons (he was 3rd over 2m4f off OR142 here last year). He ran well on his seasonal debut last week, and David Pipe is likely to have aimed him at the race so he should have come on for that run. It looks a tough ask with 11st 12lb, but no recent winner has carried less than 11st 5lb so he’s got trends on his side.
Nothing takes my eye at Taunton, and at Uttoxeter I want to see CROSS KENNON win the beginners chase but the rest of the card leaves me cold.
Do I have a selection today? After yesterday, I should go with my conviction and have a punt on PIRAYA, but with only 1 win from 20 starts in the UK he would not be a confident selection.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
Lastly, a recommendation to readers of the blog to visit G-Star Sports Tips (http://gstarfrankels.blogspot.com) who gave the following winners from yesterday: Hazy Tom, Best Lover, Always Bold, Restaurateur and Bailadeira - that’s 5 winners from 7 selections. What’s more, they are not just names on a blank page, each selection has some narrative as to why it has been chosen.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
No selections for the blog yesterday as I managed to persuade myself that recommending a wager on MONSIEUR JORDAIN was not a good idea despite him being an improving 5yo chaser who was guaranteed to stay the 2m 6f &110 yard trip. He went and won at 10/1 benefiting from the last fence fall of the favourite Dusky Bob; but that one was probably tiring anyway (the reason for the fall?) and may not held onto the lead anyhow. At least I know I’m on the right track reading the form-lines as I read that race near perfect. MONSIEUR JORDAIN was only 7/1 in the morning when I posted my blog, which was a big reason why he wasn’t a selection. I managed to obtain 12.50 on Betfair just before the off, which is equivalent to 11/1, and I traded out my stake at 3.10.
We have 3 jumps cards at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter today, so let’s see what’s in store.
At Newbury, I’m looking to oppose the fav in the opener with Emma Lavelle’s KENTFORD GREY LADY as those 2 that beat here LTO are above average, and this is a much easier task. Next-up, the novice chase at 1:00 has a Henderson chasing debutant in Celtus and that should allow one from my alert list THE COCKNEY MACKEM to go off at a bit of value. He easily has the best chasing form in this race and should be odds-on; instead, we could get 9/4. Edgardo Sol who beat him a nose LTO has won again since and is rated OR134, and THE COCKNEY MACKEM is on a par with that. At 1:35, the novice h’cap hurdle over 2m5f has been won by some decent horses in recent years and I have PROMISED WINGS on my alert list after he lost LTO by demolishing the final hurdle. That said, I’m not sure an extra furlong will be to his good, and the fav Sentimental Journey could prove hard to beat in what looks a competitive race.
GRANDS CRUS reappears in the 2:10 and it is most unlikely that he won’t win this, tho’ Viking Blond will be no pushover. It’s hard to know what to make of Sonofvic until he jumps a fence in public.
Buffalo Bob won the 2:45 last year, but his trainer Kim Bailey has his stable in poor form and he ran a stinker LTO (with my money on and as a selection for the blog). Current fav Zarrafakt hacked-up on his seasonal debut last season but then flopped in this and again in the Spring. I don’t think he can be relied upon, and neither can Rackham Lerouge. That’lldoboy was the main beneficiary of tardy jumping by his rivals LTO and that form could be unreliable. Leading Contender does not do well in fields of more than 6 runners, and so that brings me to PIRAYA. He stays this trip, will appreciate the going and he has run well at this meeting for the past 2 seasons (he was 3rd over 2m4f off OR142 here last year). He ran well on his seasonal debut last week, and David Pipe is likely to have aimed him at the race so he should have come on for that run. It looks a tough ask with 11st 12lb, but no recent winner has carried less than 11st 5lb so he’s got trends on his side.
Nothing takes my eye at Taunton, and at Uttoxeter I want to see CROSS KENNON win the beginners chase but the rest of the card leaves me cold.
Do I have a selection today? After yesterday, I should go with my conviction and have a punt on PIRAYA, but with only 1 win from 20 starts in the UK he would not be a confident selection.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
Lastly, a recommendation to readers of the blog to visit G-Star Sports Tips (http://gstarfrankels.blogspot.com) who gave the following winners from yesterday: Hazy Tom, Best Lover, Always Bold, Restaurateur and Bailadeira - that’s 5 winners from 7 selections. What’s more, they are not just names on a blank page, each selection has some narrative as to why it has been chosen.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 22 November 2011
Forgive me Father
The 386th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
What a tremendous day for Nicky Henderson yesterday.
He sent out 8 runners and had 7 winners, as he had 2 horses declared for the opener at Kempton (won by Darlan) and withdrew Wise Move at the start. This follows his 5 winners from 7 runners on Friday. It is a pity that he was not rewarded better with prize-money. Had Henderson placed a £500 accumulator on his 7 runners (and winners) he would have taken more off the bookies than he won in prize money. Henderson sends out 2 today, both run at Lingfield and I would expect both to win, but they are at such short odds I cannot recommend a wager. Remember, in jumps racing anything can happen and that element of “risk” has to be taken into account, for instance 1/8 chance Mossley nearly came down at the 14th fence in the 3-runner race that he won.
My sole selection yesterday MIDNIGHT APPEAL ran without any zip. It was an unexplainable run from the horse, but he never looked happy and his jumping was not confident. As he has been progressive (till yesterday) I will give him a chance to recoup the loss.
Today’s two meetings, at Lingfield and Sedgefield over the jumps, look ordinary. I’ve been thru’ the card at Sedgefield and there’s nothing that takes my eye. Pretty much the same at Lingfield, tho’ the 3-mile h’cap chase at 3:20 is a puzzle. I would be wanting to oppose the fav Wide Receiver in this, especially if he goes off at under 3/1, as he won his last two races by wide margins pretty much simply because he outstayed the opposition. There will be no lacking opposition that stays the trip in this race, and Wide Receiver has been raised 14lb for his LTO win. Don’t get me wrong, he should start the fav on known form, but there are a couple in the race who may well upset him. Goring One is on the upgrade and is expected to stay this trip, but he’s also been raised 10lb for a facile win LTO. Anna Newton-Smith, trainer of Goring One, also has Pete The Feat in this race and he has no stamina issues. He would prefer the going soft tho’ as would most of the others. The one that takes my eye is FATHER PROBUS who will be ridden by Paddy Brennan. Brennan rides 2 for Fergal O’Brien today and he’s won on 2 of his 4 rides in chases for Fergal. Last time out, FATHER PROBUS split 2 next-time-out winners in what was his debut chase. Admittedly, he would prefer the going to be a bit softer, but then so would the fav Wide Receiver. FATHER PROBUS is 8/1 with Ladbrokes and I can see him running a big race, but I think I’d want 10’s before having an eachway wager on him.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)
What a tremendous day for Nicky Henderson yesterday.
He sent out 8 runners and had 7 winners, as he had 2 horses declared for the opener at Kempton (won by Darlan) and withdrew Wise Move at the start. This follows his 5 winners from 7 runners on Friday. It is a pity that he was not rewarded better with prize-money. Had Henderson placed a £500 accumulator on his 7 runners (and winners) he would have taken more off the bookies than he won in prize money. Henderson sends out 2 today, both run at Lingfield and I would expect both to win, but they are at such short odds I cannot recommend a wager. Remember, in jumps racing anything can happen and that element of “risk” has to be taken into account, for instance 1/8 chance Mossley nearly came down at the 14th fence in the 3-runner race that he won.
My sole selection yesterday MIDNIGHT APPEAL ran without any zip. It was an unexplainable run from the horse, but he never looked happy and his jumping was not confident. As he has been progressive (till yesterday) I will give him a chance to recoup the loss.
Today’s two meetings, at Lingfield and Sedgefield over the jumps, look ordinary. I’ve been thru’ the card at Sedgefield and there’s nothing that takes my eye. Pretty much the same at Lingfield, tho’ the 3-mile h’cap chase at 3:20 is a puzzle. I would be wanting to oppose the fav Wide Receiver in this, especially if he goes off at under 3/1, as he won his last two races by wide margins pretty much simply because he outstayed the opposition. There will be no lacking opposition that stays the trip in this race, and Wide Receiver has been raised 14lb for his LTO win. Don’t get me wrong, he should start the fav on known form, but there are a couple in the race who may well upset him. Goring One is on the upgrade and is expected to stay this trip, but he’s also been raised 10lb for a facile win LTO. Anna Newton-Smith, trainer of Goring One, also has Pete The Feat in this race and he has no stamina issues. He would prefer the going soft tho’ as would most of the others. The one that takes my eye is FATHER PROBUS who will be ridden by Paddy Brennan. Brennan rides 2 for Fergal O’Brien today and he’s won on 2 of his 4 rides in chases for Fergal. Last time out, FATHER PROBUS split 2 next-time-out winners in what was his debut chase. Admittedly, he would prefer the going to be a bit softer, but then so would the fav Wide Receiver. FATHER PROBUS is 8/1 with Ladbrokes and I can see him running a big race, but I think I’d want 10’s before having an eachway wager on him.
As such, no recommended wagers today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 21 November 2011
If you want value, this is where to come
The 385th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
We start the week on a high after a great winner on Saturday from the only selection, with I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romping home at 8/1. Unfortunately, no donations were received which was disappointing as (according to Statcounter) the blog had 111 unique visitors on Saturday, of which 52 were returning visitors.
With 54 visitors returning to this blog more than 6 times in the past week, and another 46 who have returned between 1 and 5 times, I am sure those that do return time and time again do so because they get some value from the blog.
I have updated my stats page and, since 1st November 2010, I have advised 187 wagers on this blog, and they have returned a total profit of 28.5525pts from 211pts staked; that's a Return on Investment of 13.53%.
If you visit the well-established site Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) which has been operating since 2004; from over 3700 registered “tipsters” only 17 (yes, just seventeen) of those who “back” horses (not layers) and who have placed more than 50 selections with their last selection being in the past 30-days, have a better ROI than 13.53%. Adjust the filter to more than 100 selections (I have advised 187 on this blog) and only 8 registered tipsters beat my ROI, and they ALL charge between £25 to £60 a month.
There is an interesting blog written by Steeplechasing (http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com) which is well worth a visit. It is written by Joe McNally and he’s written a page on possible value for the Gold Cup next March. I won’t steal his thunder, but it will come as no surprise to regular readers of this blog that I am pretty much in agreement with him as to where the next Gold Cup winner is coming from. Long Run should improve a few pounds with better jumping and so he is clearly the best from this side of the Irish Sea, but believe me when I say “the Irish are coming!”
There are 3 meetings today, so plenty to choose from. There are a lot of small fields which could be due to it being a Monday.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Ffos Las.
At Kempton, the 1st-4 races are headed by short-priced fav’s and they are not my cup’o’tea as I can’t see anything to oppose them with. An old friend in PICKAMUS runs in the 3:10 and he has going and trip in his favour, and he’s even won going right-handed. Seeing-as he does not stay a yard more than 2m5f it seems odd that his only chase race at a suitable trip last season was in a Grade 3 H’cap Chase in which he was almost certainly outclassed (he fell mid-race). It was unfortunate that he ran over 22f LTO off his last winning mark of OR130 as, if he’d stayed that trip, he would’ve won. Henry Daly has managed to get Barry Geraghty in the saddle, but I feel that won’t be enough to beat the fav MIDNIGHT APPEAL. This full-bro’ to My Petra is going the right way and looks leniently treated on OR127 considering he’s won 4 of his 5 chases and LTO met a decent rival in Roudoudou Ville. He was 2nd that day in a fast time at Sandown, and at 9/4 this proven jumper looks the value in the race. Like his other full bro’ Lake Legend, MIDNIGHT APPEAL needs a bit of rousting along and stays 2m4f+. This is Alan King’s only runner today and he’s worth a wager tho’, given his style of running, it could be worth having some money on in-running at perhaps 5/1 (6.00) as I reckon he may well trade a lot higher than his current odds of 3.25 – it’s a thought.
I cannot see anything at Ludlow either, so all-in-all for all the racing on offer, it is a disappointing looking day.
Selection:
Kempton 3:10, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win at 9/4 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
We start the week on a high after a great winner on Saturday from the only selection, with I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romping home at 8/1. Unfortunately, no donations were received which was disappointing as (according to Statcounter) the blog had 111 unique visitors on Saturday, of which 52 were returning visitors.
With 54 visitors returning to this blog more than 6 times in the past week, and another 46 who have returned between 1 and 5 times, I am sure those that do return time and time again do so because they get some value from the blog.
I have updated my stats page and, since 1st November 2010, I have advised 187 wagers on this blog, and they have returned a total profit of 28.5525pts from 211pts staked; that's a Return on Investment of 13.53%.
If you visit the well-established site Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) which has been operating since 2004; from over 3700 registered “tipsters” only 17 (yes, just seventeen) of those who “back” horses (not layers) and who have placed more than 50 selections with their last selection being in the past 30-days, have a better ROI than 13.53%. Adjust the filter to more than 100 selections (I have advised 187 on this blog) and only 8 registered tipsters beat my ROI, and they ALL charge between £25 to £60 a month.
There is an interesting blog written by Steeplechasing (http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com) which is well worth a visit. It is written by Joe McNally and he’s written a page on possible value for the Gold Cup next March. I won’t steal his thunder, but it will come as no surprise to regular readers of this blog that I am pretty much in agreement with him as to where the next Gold Cup winner is coming from. Long Run should improve a few pounds with better jumping and so he is clearly the best from this side of the Irish Sea, but believe me when I say “the Irish are coming!”
There are 3 meetings today, so plenty to choose from. There are a lot of small fields which could be due to it being a Monday.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Ffos Las.
At Kempton, the 1st-4 races are headed by short-priced fav’s and they are not my cup’o’tea as I can’t see anything to oppose them with. An old friend in PICKAMUS runs in the 3:10 and he has going and trip in his favour, and he’s even won going right-handed. Seeing-as he does not stay a yard more than 2m5f it seems odd that his only chase race at a suitable trip last season was in a Grade 3 H’cap Chase in which he was almost certainly outclassed (he fell mid-race). It was unfortunate that he ran over 22f LTO off his last winning mark of OR130 as, if he’d stayed that trip, he would’ve won. Henry Daly has managed to get Barry Geraghty in the saddle, but I feel that won’t be enough to beat the fav MIDNIGHT APPEAL. This full-bro’ to My Petra is going the right way and looks leniently treated on OR127 considering he’s won 4 of his 5 chases and LTO met a decent rival in Roudoudou Ville. He was 2nd that day in a fast time at Sandown, and at 9/4 this proven jumper looks the value in the race. Like his other full bro’ Lake Legend, MIDNIGHT APPEAL needs a bit of rousting along and stays 2m4f+. This is Alan King’s only runner today and he’s worth a wager tho’, given his style of running, it could be worth having some money on in-running at perhaps 5/1 (6.00) as I reckon he may well trade a lot higher than his current odds of 3.25 – it’s a thought.
I cannot see anything at Ludlow either, so all-in-all for all the racing on offer, it is a disappointing looking day.
Selection:
Kempton 3:10, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win at 9/4 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sunday, 20 November 2011
One selection, and it's an 8/1 winner!
The 384th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
How wrong was I about KAUTO STAR?
I had a small wager on Weird Al, but for most of the 2nd circuit I was cheering-on Kauto and (as I wrote on twitter) never have I wanted a wager of mine so much to lose.
KAUTO STAR was magnificent. It was nowhere near his peak performance of winning the King George in December 2009, but it was a performance that (in my opinion) would have been enough to win the Gold Cup last March. Will he be able to repeat that on Boxing Day? That is debateable as his old bones have taken a pounding in this race. I was taken with the performance of Weird Al as he looked capable of overhauling Kauto at one point before the 2nd-last fence, but his stamina limit is 3-mile. Aintree in the Spring and the “Bowl” over the Mildmay course would be the target I’d aim him for.
I gave you only one selection yesterday, and what a selection – I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romped home a clear winner at odds of 8/1 giving followers a 9.60pt profit on the day. He was given a great ride by Hadden Frost and (combined with Haydock winner Dynaste) provided further proof that trainer David Pipe is “king” of the handicaps.
Master Minded showed that when he wants to be, he is a 170+ chaser. At one point I thought Somersby would hold on to the lead, but that was a brief thought. In this sort of form, Master Minded is a clear Champion Chase contender, but he is such a good jumper of a fence these days I reckon Paul Nicholls is right to put him into the King George on Boxing Day. Long Run (last year’s King George winner) will appreciate a return to Kempton, but his jumping is not foot perfect and Master Minded may expose his limitations again – and Kauto Star will have the stamina to take advantage. What a double-act!
No selections today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
How wrong was I about KAUTO STAR?
I had a small wager on Weird Al, but for most of the 2nd circuit I was cheering-on Kauto and (as I wrote on twitter) never have I wanted a wager of mine so much to lose.
KAUTO STAR was magnificent. It was nowhere near his peak performance of winning the King George in December 2009, but it was a performance that (in my opinion) would have been enough to win the Gold Cup last March. Will he be able to repeat that on Boxing Day? That is debateable as his old bones have taken a pounding in this race. I was taken with the performance of Weird Al as he looked capable of overhauling Kauto at one point before the 2nd-last fence, but his stamina limit is 3-mile. Aintree in the Spring and the “Bowl” over the Mildmay course would be the target I’d aim him for.
I gave you only one selection yesterday, and what a selection – I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romped home a clear winner at odds of 8/1 giving followers a 9.60pt profit on the day. He was given a great ride by Hadden Frost and (combined with Haydock winner Dynaste) provided further proof that trainer David Pipe is “king” of the handicaps.
Master Minded showed that when he wants to be, he is a 170+ chaser. At one point I thought Somersby would hold on to the lead, but that was a brief thought. In this sort of form, Master Minded is a clear Champion Chase contender, but he is such a good jumper of a fence these days I reckon Paul Nicholls is right to put him into the King George on Boxing Day. Long Run (last year’s King George winner) will appreciate a return to Kempton, but his jumping is not foot perfect and Master Minded may expose his limitations again – and Kauto Star will have the stamina to take advantage. What a double-act!
No selections today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 19 November 2011
Will Kauto Star be singing the blues?
The 383rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No blog yesterday due to technical issues. My laptop charger went “pop” about a month ago (the original had lasted from June 2010, about 16 months), and I bought a replacement off the internet which went “pop” on Thursday evening. The postman has just delivered a replacement.
Let’s get straight to it, shall we?
I reckon today could be the very last time we see KAUTO STAR on a racecourse. The Racing Post may have rated his performance in the Gold Cup at 174, but I thought it was a stone below that at 159. Be honest, What A Friend in 4th that day has never been better than a 160 horse, yet RPR rated his run at 172. Come on, stop having a laugh! Throw-in the fact that Kauto is never anywhere near his best 1st-time-out in a new season and so at his most vulnerable, we could see him struggling to run above 155 today – which means he will be well beaten. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my heart speaking, not my wallet. I rate Long Run at 170 which puts him on a “par” with Diamond Harry’s Hennessey performance of last season. Given that Diamond Harry can go extremely well when fresh, I’d expect him to beat Long Run. My money tho’ is on WEIRD AL who has won 5 of his 7 chases, and looked immense when winning the Charlie Hall LTO. He’s proven race-fit, and capable of improving another 7lb+ on that performance (which I rated 165) and that would put him right in the mix and so at 7/1 he is the value. Being a strong traveller, I expect him to trade at below 4.00 (3/1) in-running so that there is an opportunity to trade-out for a risk-free wager.
At Ascot, we see another Paul Nicholls wonder horse in Master Minded going for a repeat win in the Amlin Chase. Interestingly, other that when ridden by Sam Thomas on his UK debut, the only jockey to lose a race on Master Minded has been Ruby Walsh, so I’ve no problem with him being ridden by Daryl Jacob. However, this race revolves around whether Master Minded wants to race or not. If he does, he wins – full stop. If he doesn’t, then you have to be on SOMERSBY who is a cast iron 2nd-best on ratings but is rock solid consistent performer. At 2/1, it is a toss-of-a-coin bet , but you only get “evens” for that.
My only recommended wager today tho’ is on I’SINGINGTHEBLUES in the 3:20 at Ascot. This 2m1f trip will be perfect for his, as will be the going. He showed last week that he can win off OR145 and I am surprised that he is as long as 8/1 (Ladbrokes). It is a tough race, but that should play to the strengths of I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES as he will love a strong pace.
I’d like to spend a bit more time writing the blog, but now winter is here, it has to be posted in good time to allow readers to get on if they want a wager.
If any other opportunities come up today during the afternoon, then I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) or as a comment to this blog. I will also post any selections with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).
Selection
Ascot 3:20, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG, 5th odds 1,2,3)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No blog yesterday due to technical issues. My laptop charger went “pop” about a month ago (the original had lasted from June 2010, about 16 months), and I bought a replacement off the internet which went “pop” on Thursday evening. The postman has just delivered a replacement.
Let’s get straight to it, shall we?
I reckon today could be the very last time we see KAUTO STAR on a racecourse. The Racing Post may have rated his performance in the Gold Cup at 174, but I thought it was a stone below that at 159. Be honest, What A Friend in 4th that day has never been better than a 160 horse, yet RPR rated his run at 172. Come on, stop having a laugh! Throw-in the fact that Kauto is never anywhere near his best 1st-time-out in a new season and so at his most vulnerable, we could see him struggling to run above 155 today – which means he will be well beaten. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my heart speaking, not my wallet. I rate Long Run at 170 which puts him on a “par” with Diamond Harry’s Hennessey performance of last season. Given that Diamond Harry can go extremely well when fresh, I’d expect him to beat Long Run. My money tho’ is on WEIRD AL who has won 5 of his 7 chases, and looked immense when winning the Charlie Hall LTO. He’s proven race-fit, and capable of improving another 7lb+ on that performance (which I rated 165) and that would put him right in the mix and so at 7/1 he is the value. Being a strong traveller, I expect him to trade at below 4.00 (3/1) in-running so that there is an opportunity to trade-out for a risk-free wager.
At Ascot, we see another Paul Nicholls wonder horse in Master Minded going for a repeat win in the Amlin Chase. Interestingly, other that when ridden by Sam Thomas on his UK debut, the only jockey to lose a race on Master Minded has been Ruby Walsh, so I’ve no problem with him being ridden by Daryl Jacob. However, this race revolves around whether Master Minded wants to race or not. If he does, he wins – full stop. If he doesn’t, then you have to be on SOMERSBY who is a cast iron 2nd-best on ratings but is rock solid consistent performer. At 2/1, it is a toss-of-a-coin bet , but you only get “evens” for that.
My only recommended wager today tho’ is on I’SINGINGTHEBLUES in the 3:20 at Ascot. This 2m1f trip will be perfect for his, as will be the going. He showed last week that he can win off OR145 and I am surprised that he is as long as 8/1 (Ladbrokes). It is a tough race, but that should play to the strengths of I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES as he will love a strong pace.
I’d like to spend a bit more time writing the blog, but now winter is here, it has to be posted in good time to allow readers to get on if they want a wager.
If any other opportunities come up today during the afternoon, then I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) or as a comment to this blog. I will also post any selections with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).
Selection
Ascot 3:20, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG, 5th odds 1,2,3)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 17 November 2011
A couple to take from yesterday
The 382nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Yesterday’s selection SIGNALMAN ran well for a long way yesterday, but he met one in Lightening Rod who was a real “rick” in the handicap. The going was indeed soft/heavy at Hexham and that Lightening Rod looked so comfortable on it (despite not having looked to have handled it in the past) shows just how much he had in hand in winning this race. That said, I was on the right lines as SIGNALMAN started at 7/2, and I recommended him at 8/1 in the morning – so followers of the blog had plenty of opportunity to “lay-off” their stake or even take a 100% profit.
Later in the afternoon, I was taken with the gutsy run of DUSKY BOB in winning the class 4 hurdle off OR100. His half-bro has run well in Ireland off OR111 and stays 2m6f+, so I reckon DUSKY BOB should handle a rise in weights. I will also keep KING PENDA on my alert list as he made good headway from halfway until the going told before 2-out. Given it was far too soft for him, he will do a lot better when conditions are in his favour.
At Warwick, LEXICON LAD won on his debut chase race, from off a 202-day break. Always prominent, this was a tremendous display, especially as the race-fit LTO winner Loch Ba came to win the race 2-out but could not cope with the winner and the pair finished well clear of the remainder. LEXICON LAD appreciated going left-handed (previous 3 runs were going RH) and he is an exciting novice chaser who could run again at the weekend.
We have 3 jumps meetings today at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Hereford, and I’m on a personal recovery mission having posted 8 consecutive losers since staring the month well with 3 winners. Unfortunately, having been through all 3 cards looking for a wager that is suitable, I can’t find one. Hereford has what looks to be the best racing, so I shall continue studying the form there. There are also a couple of races at Wincanton that may provide an opportunity. If one comes up between now and noon, I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) and as a comment, and also with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Yesterday’s selection SIGNALMAN ran well for a long way yesterday, but he met one in Lightening Rod who was a real “rick” in the handicap. The going was indeed soft/heavy at Hexham and that Lightening Rod looked so comfortable on it (despite not having looked to have handled it in the past) shows just how much he had in hand in winning this race. That said, I was on the right lines as SIGNALMAN started at 7/2, and I recommended him at 8/1 in the morning – so followers of the blog had plenty of opportunity to “lay-off” their stake or even take a 100% profit.
Later in the afternoon, I was taken with the gutsy run of DUSKY BOB in winning the class 4 hurdle off OR100. His half-bro has run well in Ireland off OR111 and stays 2m6f+, so I reckon DUSKY BOB should handle a rise in weights. I will also keep KING PENDA on my alert list as he made good headway from halfway until the going told before 2-out. Given it was far too soft for him, he will do a lot better when conditions are in his favour.
At Warwick, LEXICON LAD won on his debut chase race, from off a 202-day break. Always prominent, this was a tremendous display, especially as the race-fit LTO winner Loch Ba came to win the race 2-out but could not cope with the winner and the pair finished well clear of the remainder. LEXICON LAD appreciated going left-handed (previous 3 runs were going RH) and he is an exciting novice chaser who could run again at the weekend.
We have 3 jumps meetings today at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Hereford, and I’m on a personal recovery mission having posted 8 consecutive losers since staring the month well with 3 winners. Unfortunately, having been through all 3 cards looking for a wager that is suitable, I can’t find one. Hereford has what looks to be the best racing, so I shall continue studying the form there. There are also a couple of races at Wincanton that may provide an opportunity. If one comes up between now and noon, I’ll post it on twitter (@wayward_lad) and as a comment, and also with both Betting League (WaywardLad) and Tip Exchange (Quaestor).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 16 November 2011
The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner 2014 is...
The 381st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Sometimes, racehorses love to make fools of you and yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES has had the last of my money. I took 6.20 (5/1) on Betfair before the off, expecting him to go off like a scalded cat; instead, he ran like the last place he wanted to be was at the races. After a circuit, jockey Tom Cannon showed why he has a bright future in the saddle by conjuring up an effort from the horse and he (briefly) looked like making a race of it. I took the opportunity to lay-off my stake at 8.00 then and it was a wise decision.
We have a couple of jumps meetings at Warwick and Hexham, and again it looks uninspiring fare.
There is a class 5 chase at Warwick at 3:30, and I would not be wanting to take less than 5/2 about Ukranian Star, the current fav. He’s not shown much form when he’s carried more than 11st 3lb and he has 11:12 today. He does have the best form profile in the race, but I’d want 11/4 or longer.
The opening novice chase looks interesting at Hexham, and I think here the presence of heavy going in places on the chase course could prove influential on results. Heavy/soft going will rule out Rich Lord and Lightening Rod and I’m not sure Chester Lad will appreciate it on his chase debut, and I’ve learned he’s a non-runner.Pegasus Prince is also a chasing debutant, tho’ he should handle the going. That leaves the fav Pena Dorada and Signalman. All the form shown by the 4yo Pena Dorada has been on good going (that’s both on the flat and over the jumps). He is clearly capable as a chaser tho’. SIGNALMAN was a decent enough hurdler with form on soft/heavy before injury kept him off the track for nearly 2 years till March earlier this year. He ran well in a couple of novice chases in the Spring and he had no chance trying to out-pace Notus De La Tour at Carlisle last month, and paid for that effort finishing last of 6. He will strip fitter today and at 8/1 with William Hill, he is a fair wager.
In the 3:10, another novice h’cap chase, King Penda pulled-up LTO with a burst blood vessel. Before that, he won a race whose form has worked out well. He would be a selection for me in this race at odds of 12/1 were is not for the going, but he’s not shown any form when “soft” is in the going description.
An interesting column by one of my favourite writers Nick Mordin, in today’s Weekender. He writes how you should pay attention to, and make note of, novice hurdlers that achieve ratings of over 125 in October & November. I’ve said before and will say it again; those who rate races under-value Irish form and I reckon the form is under-valued by about 10lb. One horse he names is already on my alert list – SWORD OF DESTINY. The 5yo, born on the 1st Jan 2006, is in training with Noel Meade and if I could have an antepost wager on the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and someone would give me 100/1 then I’d have £25 on him. This horse looks immense and born to be a staying chaser, yet he’s quick enough over hurdles to win a grade 3 very easily. Put it this way, he reminds me of Denman, only he’s a grey version. With good fortune, he will prove to be a class act in the future over jumps.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the Betfair Chase looks a decent betting medium if you want to oppose Long Run – and I do. He’s been flattered by a couple of defeats of a quickly deteriorating Kauto Star, and I reckon Denman ran 15lb off his best in the Gold Cup last March. I think he’ll be not far off his best on Saturday but he’ll need to be to beat both Weird Al and Diamond Harry. With fitness on his side, I think WEIRD AL is a huge value wager at 7/1 and he looked in command from a long way out when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby LTO; and he’s my idea of the winner. I feel the going could be on the quick side for Diamond Harry, as he needs the word “soft” in the going description.
Selection:
Hexham 1:10, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win @ 8/1 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sometimes, racehorses love to make fools of you and yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES has had the last of my money. I took 6.20 (5/1) on Betfair before the off, expecting him to go off like a scalded cat; instead, he ran like the last place he wanted to be was at the races. After a circuit, jockey Tom Cannon showed why he has a bright future in the saddle by conjuring up an effort from the horse and he (briefly) looked like making a race of it. I took the opportunity to lay-off my stake at 8.00 then and it was a wise decision.
We have a couple of jumps meetings at Warwick and Hexham, and again it looks uninspiring fare.
There is a class 5 chase at Warwick at 3:30, and I would not be wanting to take less than 5/2 about Ukranian Star, the current fav. He’s not shown much form when he’s carried more than 11st 3lb and he has 11:12 today. He does have the best form profile in the race, but I’d want 11/4 or longer.
The opening novice chase looks interesting at Hexham, and I think here the presence of heavy going in places on the chase course could prove influential on results. Heavy/soft going will rule out Rich Lord and Lightening Rod and I’m not sure Chester Lad will appreciate it on his chase debut, and I’ve learned he’s a non-runner.Pegasus Prince is also a chasing debutant, tho’ he should handle the going. That leaves the fav Pena Dorada and Signalman. All the form shown by the 4yo Pena Dorada has been on good going (that’s both on the flat and over the jumps). He is clearly capable as a chaser tho’. SIGNALMAN was a decent enough hurdler with form on soft/heavy before injury kept him off the track for nearly 2 years till March earlier this year. He ran well in a couple of novice chases in the Spring and he had no chance trying to out-pace Notus De La Tour at Carlisle last month, and paid for that effort finishing last of 6. He will strip fitter today and at 8/1 with William Hill, he is a fair wager.
In the 3:10, another novice h’cap chase, King Penda pulled-up LTO with a burst blood vessel. Before that, he won a race whose form has worked out well. He would be a selection for me in this race at odds of 12/1 were is not for the going, but he’s not shown any form when “soft” is in the going description.
An interesting column by one of my favourite writers Nick Mordin, in today’s Weekender. He writes how you should pay attention to, and make note of, novice hurdlers that achieve ratings of over 125 in October & November. I’ve said before and will say it again; those who rate races under-value Irish form and I reckon the form is under-valued by about 10lb. One horse he names is already on my alert list – SWORD OF DESTINY. The 5yo, born on the 1st Jan 2006, is in training with Noel Meade and if I could have an antepost wager on the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and someone would give me 100/1 then I’d have £25 on him. This horse looks immense and born to be a staying chaser, yet he’s quick enough over hurdles to win a grade 3 very easily. Put it this way, he reminds me of Denman, only he’s a grey version. With good fortune, he will prove to be a class act in the future over jumps.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the Betfair Chase looks a decent betting medium if you want to oppose Long Run – and I do. He’s been flattered by a couple of defeats of a quickly deteriorating Kauto Star, and I reckon Denman ran 15lb off his best in the Gold Cup last March. I think he’ll be not far off his best on Saturday but he’ll need to be to beat both Weird Al and Diamond Harry. With fitness on his side, I think WEIRD AL is a huge value wager at 7/1 and he looked in command from a long way out when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby LTO; and he’s my idea of the winner. I feel the going could be on the quick side for Diamond Harry, as he needs the word “soft” in the going description.
Selection:
Hexham 1:10, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win @ 8/1 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 15 November 2011
Looking for a winner at Folkestone
The 380th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ if you read the blog you will have noted that I wrote that Emma Lavelle has a good record at Plumpton – and she took the opener with the 11/1 winner Gleann Eagas. Lavelle has now recorded 8 winners from her last 19 runners.
Flaming George only just failed (by a neck) to win for Paul Nicholls, and this race looks decent form. On a more galloping track he could be capable of running to a level of 125+.
Master Milan looked like continuing Jonjo O’Neill's awful November until pure class got him home – his hurdling was atrocious. And trainer of the moment, David Pipe, came away with a brace of winners from 4 sent to Plumpton. Take note of WINGS OF ICARUS – he’s a half-brother to top class chaser QUITO DE LA ROQUE and World Hurdle 3rd, KAZAL. He should find 2m5f+ his best trip in time.
AP McCoy was at Leicester, and had 3 winners from 4 rides – none of them supplied by his retaining trainer, Jonjo O’Neill.
There are two meetings today at Fakenham and Folkestone, and they are both poor quality. It could well be a day for following the money. At Folkestone, one from last season’s alert list runs in ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. Now, this horse has led me a merry dance these past 12 months, running 14 times since 19th Sept ’10 and winning 4 times at odds of 5/2, 13/2, 8/1 and 25/1 – and I did not have a wager on him when he won, but consistently followed him when he lost! Today, he is 9/2 with Paddy Power in what looks on paper to be a 2-horse race (only 5 go to post) as Current Climate makes his chase debut, and both Baroque and Romney Marsh are very poor chasers. With main rival Run To Fly making the long trip from South Wales for Peter Bowen, he is a 4/5 odds-on fav. Both are front-runners, both will stay this trip. What swings me towards ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES is that he’s won a chase off a 7lb higher rating, and he’s won on today’s going (good-to-firm). Also, claimer Tom Cannon takes off 5lb and he is worth every ounce. He’s won 7 chases from 21 rides for Chris Gordon (trainer of ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES) this season.
Selection:
Folkestone 3:30, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ if you read the blog you will have noted that I wrote that Emma Lavelle has a good record at Plumpton – and she took the opener with the 11/1 winner Gleann Eagas. Lavelle has now recorded 8 winners from her last 19 runners.
Flaming George only just failed (by a neck) to win for Paul Nicholls, and this race looks decent form. On a more galloping track he could be capable of running to a level of 125+.
Master Milan looked like continuing Jonjo O’Neill's awful November until pure class got him home – his hurdling was atrocious. And trainer of the moment, David Pipe, came away with a brace of winners from 4 sent to Plumpton. Take note of WINGS OF ICARUS – he’s a half-brother to top class chaser QUITO DE LA ROQUE and World Hurdle 3rd, KAZAL. He should find 2m5f+ his best trip in time.
AP McCoy was at Leicester, and had 3 winners from 4 rides – none of them supplied by his retaining trainer, Jonjo O’Neill.
There are two meetings today at Fakenham and Folkestone, and they are both poor quality. It could well be a day for following the money. At Folkestone, one from last season’s alert list runs in ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. Now, this horse has led me a merry dance these past 12 months, running 14 times since 19th Sept ’10 and winning 4 times at odds of 5/2, 13/2, 8/1 and 25/1 – and I did not have a wager on him when he won, but consistently followed him when he lost! Today, he is 9/2 with Paddy Power in what looks on paper to be a 2-horse race (only 5 go to post) as Current Climate makes his chase debut, and both Baroque and Romney Marsh are very poor chasers. With main rival Run To Fly making the long trip from South Wales for Peter Bowen, he is a 4/5 odds-on fav. Both are front-runners, both will stay this trip. What swings me towards ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES is that he’s won a chase off a 7lb higher rating, and he’s won on today’s going (good-to-firm). Also, claimer Tom Cannon takes off 5lb and he is worth every ounce. He’s won 7 chases from 21 rides for Chris Gordon (trainer of ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES) this season.
Selection:
Folkestone 3:30, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Sunday, 13 November 2011
Fontwell hosts the Southern National
The 378th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Not the best of day’s for the blog yesterday – totally blown out of the water. All 3 selections were well beaten; another two mentioned could only finish in the places; and even one of my 3-2-Follow for the Season – WISHFUL THINKING – was stuffed.
That said, let’s take nothing away from GREAT ENDEAVOUR who won the Paddy Power with a tremendous display.
Onto today, and the opener this afternoon looks an interesting novice chase. Paul Nicholls has won this race for the past 3 years, and 5 times in the last 9 running’s, so Al Ferof must be respected – but at odds-on he should also be taken on; but with what? The Irish challenger DELPHI MOUNTAIN beat De Valira on his only chase run to date, and he looks better than 25/1 (Vic Chandler) and he should finish in the 1st-3.
It will be hard for WOOLCOMBE FOLLY to lose the 1:45 as he is easily the highest rated horse in the race, but his odds will not be value.
I am not even going to try and find a selection for the Greatwood Hurdle, tho’ VIVA COLONIA is not a 66/1 chance (Vic Chandler again), tho’ Betfred and Tote go 50/1 and pay on 5 places.
I also like the chance of PERPETUALLY in the hurdle at 2:55.
It is such a lovely day today, I should really be going to Fontwell and not taking the dogs for a walk. It is the Southern National there today and it will be a slog on soft going over the trip of 3m4f. It looks a cracker of a race with several old fav’s of mine running: Rapid Increase, Le Beau Bai, Aldertune, and recent winner Fortification. With both Le Beau Bai and Aldertune being very one-paced, it’s a toss-up between Fortification and Rapid Increase. Both will handle the going, both are race fit, and both will stay every yard. The bookies go 8/1 the field and I cannot split this pair.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Not the best of day’s for the blog yesterday – totally blown out of the water. All 3 selections were well beaten; another two mentioned could only finish in the places; and even one of my 3-2-Follow for the Season – WISHFUL THINKING – was stuffed.
That said, let’s take nothing away from GREAT ENDEAVOUR who won the Paddy Power with a tremendous display.
Onto today, and the opener this afternoon looks an interesting novice chase. Paul Nicholls has won this race for the past 3 years, and 5 times in the last 9 running’s, so Al Ferof must be respected – but at odds-on he should also be taken on; but with what? The Irish challenger DELPHI MOUNTAIN beat De Valira on his only chase run to date, and he looks better than 25/1 (Vic Chandler) and he should finish in the 1st-3.
It will be hard for WOOLCOMBE FOLLY to lose the 1:45 as he is easily the highest rated horse in the race, but his odds will not be value.
I am not even going to try and find a selection for the Greatwood Hurdle, tho’ VIVA COLONIA is not a 66/1 chance (Vic Chandler again), tho’ Betfred and Tote go 50/1 and pay on 5 places.
I also like the chance of PERPETUALLY in the hurdle at 2:55.
It is such a lovely day today, I should really be going to Fontwell and not taking the dogs for a walk. It is the Southern National there today and it will be a slog on soft going over the trip of 3m4f. It looks a cracker of a race with several old fav’s of mine running: Rapid Increase, Le Beau Bai, Aldertune, and recent winner Fortification. With both Le Beau Bai and Aldertune being very one-paced, it’s a toss-up between Fortification and Rapid Increase. Both will handle the going, both are race fit, and both will stay every yard. The bookies go 8/1 the field and I cannot split this pair.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 11 November 2011
Whip Crack Away!
The 376th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I did the right thing yesterday and did not have a wager.
It seems that Venetia Williams is having a slower start than usual this season. It pays to avoid her stable up-until mid-November but, as she’s only had 1 winning horse this season (Renard, who has won twice), it may pay to keep her on the “watching-list” for another week or so.
There are two jumps meetings, but I am giving Newcastle a miss as focusing on Cheltenham.
I made a note of TIME FOR SPRING when he won LTO, and he could be on a lenient rating of OR125. Combine that with the services of “crack” amateur Sam Waley-Cohen, especially as the under-rated Sound Stage is a non-runner, and we could have a wager. Unfortunately, I have missed the 13/2 available earlier, and at 11/2 he is not for me. That said, I would not put supporters of him off a wager.
Paul Nicholls took a couple from Emma Lavelle’s stable including CRACK AWAY JACK. Based on his run in the when 2nd to Somersby as a novice chaser in Dec ’09 he looks very well treated on OR142. Only had 3 runs since then, all with the word “soft” in the going description. On “good” going he’s 3 wins from 4 runs; with “soft “ in the going, he’s 1 win from 9 runs. It is good going today, Ruby Walsh is in the saddle and we know the horse can jump a fence and today’s 2-mile trip is what he wants. He’s had a wind-op since arriving at Nicholls stable and today is the ultimate test. If he is anywhere near his peak, he will win this by a street and current odds of 4/1 will look silly. This has to be a wager.
The final race on today’s card will be one to savour. I cannot make a selection in this race, but I will watch it like a hawk as it is a cracker of a novice chase.
Looking ahead, I am not entering the Tote 10-to-Follow completion. To me, it looks wide open this year and it’s a difficult enough completion as it is. Personally, I cannot see Long Run winning another Gold Cup as I rated his Gold Cup win at 170, which is 11lb below Denman at his best and a massive 24lbs below my rating for Kauto Star at his best. At 170, he is a good winner of a Gold Cup but not an extraordinary one. Put it this way, I rated Exotic Dancer at 178+ in 5 races.
For the Paddy Power tomorrow, much of the attention is on Mon Parrain and Wishful Thinking. I think at OR164 Wishful Thinking is weighted out of it, but he should be in the places. If Mon Parrain is as good as they say, he should win – but is he? For me, the value is LOOSEN MY LOAD at 16/1. He hates “give” in the going and tomorrow he will have his ground over his best trip. On the Jewson form, he is perhaps 4lb well-in with Wishful Thinking. De Bromhead has aimed this tremendous jumper of a fence at this race and he could take all the beating.
Selections
Cheltenham, 1:45 CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
I did the right thing yesterday and did not have a wager.
It seems that Venetia Williams is having a slower start than usual this season. It pays to avoid her stable up-until mid-November but, as she’s only had 1 winning horse this season (Renard, who has won twice), it may pay to keep her on the “watching-list” for another week or so.
There are two jumps meetings, but I am giving Newcastle a miss as focusing on Cheltenham.
I made a note of TIME FOR SPRING when he won LTO, and he could be on a lenient rating of OR125. Combine that with the services of “crack” amateur Sam Waley-Cohen, especially as the under-rated Sound Stage is a non-runner, and we could have a wager. Unfortunately, I have missed the 13/2 available earlier, and at 11/2 he is not for me. That said, I would not put supporters of him off a wager.
Paul Nicholls took a couple from Emma Lavelle’s stable including CRACK AWAY JACK. Based on his run in the when 2nd to Somersby as a novice chaser in Dec ’09 he looks very well treated on OR142. Only had 3 runs since then, all with the word “soft” in the going description. On “good” going he’s 3 wins from 4 runs; with “soft “ in the going, he’s 1 win from 9 runs. It is good going today, Ruby Walsh is in the saddle and we know the horse can jump a fence and today’s 2-mile trip is what he wants. He’s had a wind-op since arriving at Nicholls stable and today is the ultimate test. If he is anywhere near his peak, he will win this by a street and current odds of 4/1 will look silly. This has to be a wager.
The final race on today’s card will be one to savour. I cannot make a selection in this race, but I will watch it like a hawk as it is a cracker of a novice chase.
Looking ahead, I am not entering the Tote 10-to-Follow completion. To me, it looks wide open this year and it’s a difficult enough completion as it is. Personally, I cannot see Long Run winning another Gold Cup as I rated his Gold Cup win at 170, which is 11lb below Denman at his best and a massive 24lbs below my rating for Kauto Star at his best. At 170, he is a good winner of a Gold Cup but not an extraordinary one. Put it this way, I rated Exotic Dancer at 178+ in 5 races.
For the Paddy Power tomorrow, much of the attention is on Mon Parrain and Wishful Thinking. I think at OR164 Wishful Thinking is weighted out of it, but he should be in the places. If Mon Parrain is as good as they say, he should win – but is he? For me, the value is LOOSEN MY LOAD at 16/1. He hates “give” in the going and tomorrow he will have his ground over his best trip. On the Jewson form, he is perhaps 4lb well-in with Wishful Thinking. De Bromhead has aimed this tremendous jumper of a fence at this race and he could take all the beating.
Selections
Cheltenham, 1:45 CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 10 November 2011
AP McCoy & Henderson team-up at Ludlow
The 375th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Yesterday should have been another good day for the blog, but I overstepped my mark.
I was right on the button with THE KNOXS as I said he could be 16lb well-in, and he actually looked that and a bit more! At odds of 9/4 in the morning, he should have been the wager of the week. There are times when betting at odds under 3/1 can represent value, and this was one of them. I also side-stepped DREAM FUNCTION (a sister to Arkle winner Captain Chris) as I misread the “hype” behind the gamble on Swincombe Flame. The hype was misplaced and DREAM FUNCTION won in a canter at 2/1 having been 9/2 in the morning.
Instead of lumping-on those 2 winners, I opted to ride my luck on two others at longer odds.
BUFFALO BOB jumped like a stag, but he was harried for the lead by eventual runner-up Nicto de Beauchene and so was unable to dominate as he likes to. He won 2nd-time out last season, and he remains on my alert list. SANGFROID showed why betting in novice chases is risky business. He has not improved since his chase debut and was well-exposed yesterday, and is now on a losing run of 17 being distinctly one-paced.
At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS looked a natural over fences and won as he liked. It will take a good one to lower his colours this season.
There are meetings over the jumps at Ludlow and Taunton.
The h’cap chase at 2:00 at Ludlow is interesting. If Bold Perk can hold his jumping together then he will prove hard to beat, but that’s an “if”. For me, two horses stand-out: Nudge And Nurdle is much better going right-handed and he stays this trip well, especially on today’s going. Maraafeq is a C&D winner and when he won he had today’s top-weight Gentleman Anshan well behind. Trained by Venetia Williams, this is her only runner today and she loves sending chasers to Ludlow – 11 wins from 38 (+£30.53 to £1). Of the pair, I’d go for Nudge And Nurdle as he could be 5lb-plus well-in. The doubt is the jockey, 3lb claimer Tom Molloy who is best over hurdles.
All Nicky Henderson’s last 4 runners have won at odds of 15/8, 4/9, 3/1, & 100/30. When AP McCoy is in the saddle in a hurdle race, take note – they mean business. AP replaces Nigel Tinkler on DARK SHADOW in the 3:30 at Ludlow and they can upset the odds-on Forgotten Gold. Henderson had 5, 4-day entries in this race (which he won last season) and also sends Joseph Lister for his hurdle debut.
Nothing interests me at Taunton at all.
I will probably regret this, but I’m keeping my powder dry for Cheltenham’s meeting tomorrow and Saturday.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Yesterday should have been another good day for the blog, but I overstepped my mark.
I was right on the button with THE KNOXS as I said he could be 16lb well-in, and he actually looked that and a bit more! At odds of 9/4 in the morning, he should have been the wager of the week. There are times when betting at odds under 3/1 can represent value, and this was one of them. I also side-stepped DREAM FUNCTION (a sister to Arkle winner Captain Chris) as I misread the “hype” behind the gamble on Swincombe Flame. The hype was misplaced and DREAM FUNCTION won in a canter at 2/1 having been 9/2 in the morning.
Instead of lumping-on those 2 winners, I opted to ride my luck on two others at longer odds.
BUFFALO BOB jumped like a stag, but he was harried for the lead by eventual runner-up Nicto de Beauchene and so was unable to dominate as he likes to. He won 2nd-time out last season, and he remains on my alert list. SANGFROID showed why betting in novice chases is risky business. He has not improved since his chase debut and was well-exposed yesterday, and is now on a losing run of 17 being distinctly one-paced.
At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS looked a natural over fences and won as he liked. It will take a good one to lower his colours this season.
There are meetings over the jumps at Ludlow and Taunton.
The h’cap chase at 2:00 at Ludlow is interesting. If Bold Perk can hold his jumping together then he will prove hard to beat, but that’s an “if”. For me, two horses stand-out: Nudge And Nurdle is much better going right-handed and he stays this trip well, especially on today’s going. Maraafeq is a C&D winner and when he won he had today’s top-weight Gentleman Anshan well behind. Trained by Venetia Williams, this is her only runner today and she loves sending chasers to Ludlow – 11 wins from 38 (+£30.53 to £1). Of the pair, I’d go for Nudge And Nurdle as he could be 5lb-plus well-in. The doubt is the jockey, 3lb claimer Tom Molloy who is best over hurdles.
All Nicky Henderson’s last 4 runners have won at odds of 15/8, 4/9, 3/1, & 100/30. When AP McCoy is in the saddle in a hurdle race, take note – they mean business. AP replaces Nigel Tinkler on DARK SHADOW in the 3:30 at Ludlow and they can upset the odds-on Forgotten Gold. Henderson had 5, 4-day entries in this race (which he won last season) and also sends Joseph Lister for his hurdle debut.
Nothing interests me at Taunton at all.
I will probably regret this, but I’m keeping my powder dry for Cheltenham’s meeting tomorrow and Saturday.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 9 November 2011
GOING WRONG another winner at 4/1
The 374th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Another great result for the blog yesterday, when sole selection GOING WRONG won at 4/1 giving me a great birthday present. Admittedly, the result could have been fortunate, as the fav and clear leader Flinty Bay lost his rider with a mistake at the 2nd-last fence. However, my reason for selecting GOING WRONG was that he would stay the 2m4f trip and that could not be said for Flinty Bay. Horses make mistakes when they are tired, and Flinty Bay has not shown any form beyond 2m1f and has lost his rider (thru’ mistakes) on both attempts at further. My feeling is that even if Flinty Bay had not fallen, he would have slowed to a crawl in the final quarter-mile. Whatever, another 4pts profit for the blog.
Next, an apology and a rectification of a mistake.
I have tried to apply an email service to my blog so that readers will have the blog automatically emailed to them (by Blogger) when it is posted online. Unfortunately, altho’ the emails do go out there is no control over what time they are sent and users of the service received the email on Monday at 11pm at night! As delivery cannot be guaranteed, I have pulled the service. If anyone can recommend an application that would work, please leave a link in the comments box. I always post my selections on Betting League (see adjacent link) when I post the blog. I also use Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) were I go by the moniker “Quaestor”. Both these services are free and send out my selections via email the moment they are posted.
Yesterday, I said that my 2pt selections for the past 12 months were 7 winners from 11 selections; that was wrong. It should read 7 winners from 12 selections. The profit is therefore 35.50pts from 24pts staked – that’s a 148% return on investment.
We have a couple of decent meetings at Exeter and Bangor today. There is an interesting hurdle at 1:50 with some useful types contesting. THE KNOXS looks well-in here as he beat OR148 Wymott at level-weights over 3-mile in Jan 2010. As such, running off OR132 today, he could be 16lb well-in. He’ll stay today’s trip, and he’s won on good-to-soft . He’s currently 9/4 which is tight, but then I reckon he could start a lot shorter, perhaps 7/4.
Now, I’m not one for novice chases, but the 2:20 at Exeter looks like an opportunity. Market leader Golden Chieftain makes his chase debut today, and he may have been good point-to-point horse, but this will be a different test today. Our Island should improve for his chase debut, as will Five Star Wilsham, but it is SANGFROID who catches my eye. He was 3rd LTO, having been squeezed for room and losing momentum and was beaten only a length – yet the 1st, 2nd and 4th in that race have all won since. At 9/1 he looks a worthy wager.
At 3:50, DREAM FUNCTION, a sister to Captain Chris (Arkle winner 2011) won LTO and had 2 x NTOW’s behind. She looks well-in here, altho’ there has been a market move already this morning for Swincombe Flame. I cannot see here finishing out of the 1st-3.
At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS makes his chase debut and I sincerely hope the horse does well as he’s a favourite of mine. The highlight of that meeting tho’ is the 3-mile chase at 2:10 which has been won by some cracking horses in the recent past. Whatever wins today must go into the notebook. BUFFALO BOB was 2nd in the race last season and then won NTO. As such, he comes here today on a 6lb higher rating than he had last season. Dance Island is an interesting top-weight as he clearly has potential, but I wonder if he is a weight-carrier as his form tails off quickly when he carries more than 11st 4lb – is he a small horse? BUFFALO BOB at 13/2 looks worthy of a wager.
Selections:
Bangor 2:10, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 13/2 (William Hill, BOG)
Exeter 2:20, SANGFROID, 1pt win @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Total = 2pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Another great result for the blog yesterday, when sole selection GOING WRONG won at 4/1 giving me a great birthday present. Admittedly, the result could have been fortunate, as the fav and clear leader Flinty Bay lost his rider with a mistake at the 2nd-last fence. However, my reason for selecting GOING WRONG was that he would stay the 2m4f trip and that could not be said for Flinty Bay. Horses make mistakes when they are tired, and Flinty Bay has not shown any form beyond 2m1f and has lost his rider (thru’ mistakes) on both attempts at further. My feeling is that even if Flinty Bay had not fallen, he would have slowed to a crawl in the final quarter-mile. Whatever, another 4pts profit for the blog.
Next, an apology and a rectification of a mistake.
I have tried to apply an email service to my blog so that readers will have the blog automatically emailed to them (by Blogger) when it is posted online. Unfortunately, altho’ the emails do go out there is no control over what time they are sent and users of the service received the email on Monday at 11pm at night! As delivery cannot be guaranteed, I have pulled the service. If anyone can recommend an application that would work, please leave a link in the comments box. I always post my selections on Betting League (see adjacent link) when I post the blog. I also use Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) were I go by the moniker “Quaestor”. Both these services are free and send out my selections via email the moment they are posted.
Yesterday, I said that my 2pt selections for the past 12 months were 7 winners from 11 selections; that was wrong. It should read 7 winners from 12 selections. The profit is therefore 35.50pts from 24pts staked – that’s a 148% return on investment.
We have a couple of decent meetings at Exeter and Bangor today. There is an interesting hurdle at 1:50 with some useful types contesting. THE KNOXS looks well-in here as he beat OR148 Wymott at level-weights over 3-mile in Jan 2010. As such, running off OR132 today, he could be 16lb well-in. He’ll stay today’s trip, and he’s won on good-to-soft . He’s currently 9/4 which is tight, but then I reckon he could start a lot shorter, perhaps 7/4.
Now, I’m not one for novice chases, but the 2:20 at Exeter looks like an opportunity. Market leader Golden Chieftain makes his chase debut today, and he may have been good point-to-point horse, but this will be a different test today. Our Island should improve for his chase debut, as will Five Star Wilsham, but it is SANGFROID who catches my eye. He was 3rd LTO, having been squeezed for room and losing momentum and was beaten only a length – yet the 1st, 2nd and 4th in that race have all won since. At 9/1 he looks a worthy wager.
At 3:50, DREAM FUNCTION, a sister to Captain Chris (Arkle winner 2011) won LTO and had 2 x NTOW’s behind. She looks well-in here, altho’ there has been a market move already this morning for Swincombe Flame. I cannot see here finishing out of the 1st-3.
At Bangor, PEDDLERS CROSS makes his chase debut and I sincerely hope the horse does well as he’s a favourite of mine. The highlight of that meeting tho’ is the 3-mile chase at 2:10 which has been won by some cracking horses in the recent past. Whatever wins today must go into the notebook. BUFFALO BOB was 2nd in the race last season and then won NTO. As such, he comes here today on a 6lb higher rating than he had last season. Dance Island is an interesting top-weight as he clearly has potential, but I wonder if he is a weight-carrier as his form tails off quickly when he carries more than 11st 4lb – is he a small horse? BUFFALO BOB at 13/2 looks worthy of a wager.
Selections:
Bangor 2:10, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 13/2 (William Hill, BOG)
Exeter 2:20, SANGFROID, 1pt win @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)
Total = 2pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Tuesday, 8 November 2011
Two winners y'day at 4/1 and 7/2, & potential 170% ROI
The 373rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
What a cracking set of results for the blog yesterday.
Just 3 selections and 2 winners, YOU KNOW YOURSELF was advised at 4/1 and won well at an SP of 11/4, and SARANDO romped home at 7/2 (wager advised with Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed).
I also advised taking the 40/1 on SARANDO for the Hennessey – did you? The best odds available this morning are 20/1, and trainer Paul Webber said afterwards. "We'll certainly have to look at the Hennessy now. I think he'll get into that with a 4lb penalty and I'd like to think there's still a bit of improvement in him”.
So, from 4pts staked we collected 10pts profit.
Also, I’ve been back thru’ my records and since 1st November 2010 when I started recording all my selections on the blog, I have made 11 x 2pt win selections, and 7 of them have won! They have recorded a 37.50pt profit from 22pts staked – that’s a 170% return on investment.
First, a plug for a great website if you are entering in the Tote Ten-To-Follow competition. You must visit Peter Martins site that is dedicated to the competition, the link is adjacent. Peter has been running this site for 14 years and it certainly makes putting together a shortlist so much easier. So do yourself a favour and visit http://www.petermartinconsult.supanet.com/racing/ttf/current.htm
As it’s my birthday today, I was hoping to go racing at Lingfield, but the meeting looks a poor one and there’s nothing there of interest to me.
Huntingdon is not much better. The h’cap hurdle at 3:20 could be a race to take an interest in. There has been a move for the fav Right Stuff who won his 1st hurdle at his 12th attempt LTO. He is 13/8 at best, which seems incredibly skinny for a horse that barely gats 2-mile and the extra 110 yards of today’s race could well find him out. Spectait has not seen a hurdle since October 2008, and won in some style a year earlier at Aintree – his sole hurdle win from 4 starts. He will be fit from a busy flat campaign, but he’s 15lb off his best on the flat now, and OR109 could be a bit high for him today. I’d go for Tayarat who won over C&D LTO, but his jockey has only 2 wins from 45 career rides so he does not exude confidence. I want to oppose the fav, but the only horse that looks capable of running well enough to beat him is KING OZZY who is the only runner today for Lawney Hill. He will enjoy the going and, being a prominent runner, should enjoy the pace set by Tayarat. He is a better hurdler than chaser, as he’s not looked comfortable in that sphere and he will have stamina at the business end having won at 2m3f. There is also money this morning for Break The Chain, so I won’t be recommending a wager in this race, tho’ I think Right Stuff is more of a 7/2 chance than 13/8.
At Sedgefield, the 2m4f Novices h’cap chase looks interesting. One from my alert list last season runs in GOING WRONG. He was off for nearly 2-years with a broken pelvis, so was certainly ring-rusty on his return LTO. He ran well for a long way over a trip (2-mile) much too short for him, and the extra half-mile today will be in his favour. I reckon he was capable of OR145 as a hurdler, so running off OR127 today is another bonus. The form of that last race has worked out well (if not brilliant) with the 2nd and 3rd both being beaten by very decent looking horses yesterday. None in this field, other than GOING WRONG, look like they’ll appreciate this trip, so odds of 3/1 look generous. On a line thru’ The Cockney Mackem, there is nothing separating Quite The Man and Flinty Bay, yet the latter is 5/2 and Quite The Man is at 7/1. My selection is GOING WRONG, but I will also have a straight forecast including Quite The Man.
Selections:
Sedgefield 2:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
What a cracking set of results for the blog yesterday.
Just 3 selections and 2 winners, YOU KNOW YOURSELF was advised at 4/1 and won well at an SP of 11/4, and SARANDO romped home at 7/2 (wager advised with Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed).
I also advised taking the 40/1 on SARANDO for the Hennessey – did you? The best odds available this morning are 20/1, and trainer Paul Webber said afterwards. "We'll certainly have to look at the Hennessy now. I think he'll get into that with a 4lb penalty and I'd like to think there's still a bit of improvement in him”.
So, from 4pts staked we collected 10pts profit.
Also, I’ve been back thru’ my records and since 1st November 2010 when I started recording all my selections on the blog, I have made 11 x 2pt win selections, and 7 of them have won! They have recorded a 37.50pt profit from 22pts staked – that’s a 170% return on investment.
First, a plug for a great website if you are entering in the Tote Ten-To-Follow competition. You must visit Peter Martins site that is dedicated to the competition, the link is adjacent. Peter has been running this site for 14 years and it certainly makes putting together a shortlist so much easier. So do yourself a favour and visit http://www.petermartinconsult.supanet.com/racing/ttf/current.htm
As it’s my birthday today, I was hoping to go racing at Lingfield, but the meeting looks a poor one and there’s nothing there of interest to me.
Huntingdon is not much better. The h’cap hurdle at 3:20 could be a race to take an interest in. There has been a move for the fav Right Stuff who won his 1st hurdle at his 12th attempt LTO. He is 13/8 at best, which seems incredibly skinny for a horse that barely gats 2-mile and the extra 110 yards of today’s race could well find him out. Spectait has not seen a hurdle since October 2008, and won in some style a year earlier at Aintree – his sole hurdle win from 4 starts. He will be fit from a busy flat campaign, but he’s 15lb off his best on the flat now, and OR109 could be a bit high for him today. I’d go for Tayarat who won over C&D LTO, but his jockey has only 2 wins from 45 career rides so he does not exude confidence. I want to oppose the fav, but the only horse that looks capable of running well enough to beat him is KING OZZY who is the only runner today for Lawney Hill. He will enjoy the going and, being a prominent runner, should enjoy the pace set by Tayarat. He is a better hurdler than chaser, as he’s not looked comfortable in that sphere and he will have stamina at the business end having won at 2m3f. There is also money this morning for Break The Chain, so I won’t be recommending a wager in this race, tho’ I think Right Stuff is more of a 7/2 chance than 13/8.
At Sedgefield, the 2m4f Novices h’cap chase looks interesting. One from my alert list last season runs in GOING WRONG. He was off for nearly 2-years with a broken pelvis, so was certainly ring-rusty on his return LTO. He ran well for a long way over a trip (2-mile) much too short for him, and the extra half-mile today will be in his favour. I reckon he was capable of OR145 as a hurdler, so running off OR127 today is another bonus. The form of that last race has worked out well (if not brilliant) with the 2nd and 3rd both being beaten by very decent looking horses yesterday. None in this field, other than GOING WRONG, look like they’ll appreciate this trip, so odds of 3/1 look generous. On a line thru’ The Cockney Mackem, there is nothing separating Quite The Man and Flinty Bay, yet the latter is 5/2 and Quite The Man is at 7/1. My selection is GOING WRONG, but I will also have a straight forecast including Quite The Man.
Selections:
Sedgefield 2:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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