Take 40/1 about SARANDO for Hennessey today

The 372nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No blog from me over the weekend as I was in Cornwall seeing my 9yo son. The drive down there on Friday was horrendous, as the rain was terrible. The weekend weather in Penzance was good tho’, with clear skies and some sunshine.

There is some good winter jumps racing today, and hopefully I will find a winner of two. Currently, I am back to full-time blog writing and playing the horses to make ends meet, so there should be an increase in depth to the blogs.

At Carlisle, it is hard to see BOLD SIR BRIAN being beaten in the opening race at 12:50, but he’s not for me at odds-on 4/7 and shorter. A horse that has beaten my wager a couple of times runs in the 1:55 – YOU KNOW YOURSELF. Trainer Sue Smith was someone who I expected to take advantage of the “gap” left by trainer Howard Johnson’s “retirement”, and she’s hit form this last fortnight. Her speciality is chasers and YOU KNOW YOURSELF has a bit of quality about him and he also has the ground he loves, good-to-soft (3 wins from 6 runs). He’s lightly raced for an 8yo and I think he’ll show the fav The Magic Bishop, how it’s done today. Odds of 4/1 look fair, and some bookies are giving sporadic bits of 9/2.

There is an excellent Class 2 “graduation” chase at 2:55 that will be well worth paying attention to. It will be a tough initiation to chasing for the decent staying hurdler Cross Kennon and, at 3m & 110 yards, I think it will be a stiff test of stamina for Aikman. As such, the door is open for SARANDO who comes here with the benefit of a run on the flat 17-days ago to take the race. I highly rate this horse who I think is on a very lenient mark of OR149 given he ran QUITO DE LA ROQUE close at level weights at this trip at Aintree last April and that horse has won 2 Grade 1 chases since including beating Sizing Europe on Saturday. Odds of 2/1 look very generous as I’d have him odds-on at 4/5 for this. He is 40/1 with Ladbrokes for the Hennessey and he’ll likely run off 10st 6lb for that race, but if he wins today those odds will halve. You have been advised!

At Hereford, an old friend of mine runs in JUSTABOUT in the 3:10. This is just the sort of race that I avoid, having 5 runners and all have a chance on the formbook. It is an earlier race that takes my eye here, the 2:15 a “claiming” hurdle over 3m & 110 yards. David Pipe’s American Art makes a long trip for this race, but he does not look reliable despite having won his last 4. American Cricket also won LTO, but he is another I’d not want to take a short price on. Interestingly, Peter Bowen (who also makes a long trip here) sends KRISTALLO back to hurdles after 3 poor runs when chasing. He won over C&D in August and ran well again 7-days later off OR109. The 8lb he gets from the OR119 rated American Art means he should be in with a better than 6/1 chance for this on ground he likes.

Selections:
Carlisle 1:55, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Southwell 2:15, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Carlisle 2:55, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 2/1 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 4pts staked

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