The 436th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
It's here!
The 2012 Cheltenham Festival Bulletin has now been published and initial copies were sent out by email this evening to those who have made a £5 donation to the blog.
If you want a copy, you know what to do, and that's donate £5 using the donate button above. What you will receive is a 16-page, 9500 word document that looks at every race in the Festival, detailing important trends, potential antepost selections, in-running strategies, and provides 3 rock solid guides to every race to help you sort thru' the chaff and produce a shortlist from which (hopefully) you'll find the winners.
That's it for me for a few days. I've spent the best part of 3-weeks and over 50 hours writing and researching the bulletin and I need a break. So, I'm off to Cornwall for a long weekend and will be back on Monday. Don't worry, I'm taking my laptop with me, so if you want a copy of the bulletin send me a donation and I'll send you a copy.
All the best.
Showing posts with label Denman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Denman. Show all posts
Wednesday, 15 February 2012
Tuesday, 27 December 2011
Kauto Star the Magnificent
The 412th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Kauto the Magnificent!
In all my 50-odd years, I have never seen a horse with as much ability, bravery, resolution, and gameness all wrapped-up in one body. And I probably never will again. We will never be able to compare the relative abilities of Arkle in the 1060’s with Kauto Star today, but if you consider long-term resilience then there is no comparison. Alongside Kauto Star, a huge (and I mean huge) amount of credit has to be given to Paul Nicholls who has managed to keep the horse sound for so many years enabling Kauto Star to compete at the highest level for 7 seasons. Most horses suffer some sort of injury which curtails their career.
I rated Long Run at 168 (thru’ Nacarat in 4th) when winning the previous running of the King George, and at 170 (thru’ What A Friend in 4th) when winning the Gold Cup. Yesterday, I reckon he ran a career best of 172 and that puts Kauto Star on 173 (Racing Post have rated Kauto at 182). My ratings also put Captain Chris on 155 which was the level at which he ran for the most of last season and perhaps that is his true level of ability. I had a personal wager on Somersby at 23.0 on Betfair and laid-off at 8.0 just after the 4rd last fence when he was travelling well as any (he actually went below 5.00 in-running) but there his stamina gave out. So, Henrietta Knight was right and he is a 2½ miler at most. If Kauto can maintain this level of form then he is the one to beat in the Gold Cup no doubt but, if anything, this race showed that replacing Waley-Cohen with Barry Geraghty on Long Run might conjure up an improved performance there.
I had a decent day yesterday and placed a “yankee” based on my shorter-priced selections of Bishophill Jack (won @ 11/4), Wide Reveiver (won @ 9/4), Diereadh Re (won @ 13/8) and Shaking Hands (3rd@ 9/2). Perhaps I should have included Binocular (won @ 5/4) and of the others mentioned on the blog, Helpston ran a good 2nd (was 20/1 in the morning) but was beaten by the 7lb over-weight he was carrying, and Bless The Wings (15/2) also ran a good 2nd at Kempton.
I was very disappointed with Sarando in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby, and perhaps he is not as good as I once thought. As for my other selection, Pantxoa, he was given an awful ride being held far too far off the pace and altho’ he made ground in the latter stages he had no chance of being involved. He does have ability, but how that will convert into a win is beyond me.
Onto today, and we have the Welsh National at Chepstow which is always a great pointer to the top staying chases in the new year. The heavy going there will suit only a couple of runners and watching today’s race may prove hard going for those who are not accustomed to long-distance staying chases. Le Beau Bai was my early days selection and was 14/1 on 23rd December, but now we know the state of the going he’s just 9/1 at best. The others that will relish today’s conditions are Giles Cross, Carruthers, Blazing Bailey, Galaxy Rock and the 5yo, As De Fer. It takes an exceptional horse to carry more than 11st to win these long-distance chases, and so (based on previous trends) Giles Cross and Le Beau Bai are the obvious candidates to win this. They will be there at the finish but neither have any gears, but Galaxy Rock and As De Fer do as does BLAZING BAILEY who won a tough class 2 handicap chase at Cheltenham last New Years Day with 11st. He won over 3m4f NTO, was outclassed at the Festival when the early pace of his race was too quick, and the going was again too fast for him in the Scottish National and he pulled-up. He’s had just the one run this season when not far behind Carruthers in the Hennessey. This will be his 10th chase and he’s won 3 and been placed 3 times in the other 9 chase races; he’s also won 2 from 3 on heavy. His weight of 11st 5lb will be tough for him, but I can see only a handful completing this extreme test, and he’s likely to be one of them so at 28/1 (Bet365, Corals, Stan James) he is worth a “fun” eachway wager and he’ll be carrying my money.
I’m not making any official selections today and tomorrow I’m off to see relatives for a couple of days so, hopefully, I’ll be back with the blog on New Years Day.
It’s been a great year and I hope that my regular readers will continue to visit and support the blog. For new readers, horseracing is a great spectacle and full of emotion and exhilaration, and (if you take it seriously) you can win a bit as well.
All the best and (borrowing a term from Sir Bruce) “Keep Racing!”
Kauto the Magnificent!
In all my 50-odd years, I have never seen a horse with as much ability, bravery, resolution, and gameness all wrapped-up in one body. And I probably never will again. We will never be able to compare the relative abilities of Arkle in the 1060’s with Kauto Star today, but if you consider long-term resilience then there is no comparison. Alongside Kauto Star, a huge (and I mean huge) amount of credit has to be given to Paul Nicholls who has managed to keep the horse sound for so many years enabling Kauto Star to compete at the highest level for 7 seasons. Most horses suffer some sort of injury which curtails their career.
I rated Long Run at 168 (thru’ Nacarat in 4th) when winning the previous running of the King George, and at 170 (thru’ What A Friend in 4th) when winning the Gold Cup. Yesterday, I reckon he ran a career best of 172 and that puts Kauto Star on 173 (Racing Post have rated Kauto at 182). My ratings also put Captain Chris on 155 which was the level at which he ran for the most of last season and perhaps that is his true level of ability. I had a personal wager on Somersby at 23.0 on Betfair and laid-off at 8.0 just after the 4rd last fence when he was travelling well as any (he actually went below 5.00 in-running) but there his stamina gave out. So, Henrietta Knight was right and he is a 2½ miler at most. If Kauto can maintain this level of form then he is the one to beat in the Gold Cup no doubt but, if anything, this race showed that replacing Waley-Cohen with Barry Geraghty on Long Run might conjure up an improved performance there.
I had a decent day yesterday and placed a “yankee” based on my shorter-priced selections of Bishophill Jack (won @ 11/4), Wide Reveiver (won @ 9/4), Diereadh Re (won @ 13/8) and Shaking Hands (3rd@ 9/2). Perhaps I should have included Binocular (won @ 5/4) and of the others mentioned on the blog, Helpston ran a good 2nd (was 20/1 in the morning) but was beaten by the 7lb over-weight he was carrying, and Bless The Wings (15/2) also ran a good 2nd at Kempton.
I was very disappointed with Sarando in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby, and perhaps he is not as good as I once thought. As for my other selection, Pantxoa, he was given an awful ride being held far too far off the pace and altho’ he made ground in the latter stages he had no chance of being involved. He does have ability, but how that will convert into a win is beyond me.
Onto today, and we have the Welsh National at Chepstow which is always a great pointer to the top staying chases in the new year. The heavy going there will suit only a couple of runners and watching today’s race may prove hard going for those who are not accustomed to long-distance staying chases. Le Beau Bai was my early days selection and was 14/1 on 23rd December, but now we know the state of the going he’s just 9/1 at best. The others that will relish today’s conditions are Giles Cross, Carruthers, Blazing Bailey, Galaxy Rock and the 5yo, As De Fer. It takes an exceptional horse to carry more than 11st to win these long-distance chases, and so (based on previous trends) Giles Cross and Le Beau Bai are the obvious candidates to win this. They will be there at the finish but neither have any gears, but Galaxy Rock and As De Fer do as does BLAZING BAILEY who won a tough class 2 handicap chase at Cheltenham last New Years Day with 11st. He won over 3m4f NTO, was outclassed at the Festival when the early pace of his race was too quick, and the going was again too fast for him in the Scottish National and he pulled-up. He’s had just the one run this season when not far behind Carruthers in the Hennessey. This will be his 10th chase and he’s won 3 and been placed 3 times in the other 9 chase races; he’s also won 2 from 3 on heavy. His weight of 11st 5lb will be tough for him, but I can see only a handful completing this extreme test, and he’s likely to be one of them so at 28/1 (Bet365, Corals, Stan James) he is worth a “fun” eachway wager and he’ll be carrying my money.
I’m not making any official selections today and tomorrow I’m off to see relatives for a couple of days so, hopefully, I’ll be back with the blog on New Years Day.
It’s been a great year and I hope that my regular readers will continue to visit and support the blog. For new readers, horseracing is a great spectacle and full of emotion and exhilaration, and (if you take it seriously) you can win a bit as well.
All the best and (borrowing a term from Sir Bruce) “Keep Racing!”
Sunday, 11 December 2011
JONCOL to take the John Durkan at Punchestown
The 401st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 25
Winners = 5
Points staked = 30pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 13.60pts (ROI = 45.33%)
Yesterday’s meeting at Cheltenham was very informative in my opinion, and should throw-up a fair few winners, possibly even a Festival winner.
It started with the odds-on Hinterland being turned-over by the 14/1 BABY MIX who was having his hurdling debut in England having raced in France till mid-October and only joined trainer Tom George on 21st November, 3 weeks ago. BABY MIX looked very impressive indeed.
The 3-mile novice chase has been won by some decent horses, and 3 times in the past 7 years by Paul Nicholls (with Inchidaly Rock, What A Friend, Cornish Rebel). As such, his winner of this JOIN TOGETHER looks to have a bright future. He fell in his debut chase on 22nd Oct and, based on the form of that race, he may have gone close had he finished. The form of his next run (which he won) has worked out well enough. Mossley did not jump well today in defeat, so that tempers the form of today's race a little, but he was well there till stamina told from 2-out. Mossley is also clearly a smaller horse than JOIN TOGETHER and he may struggle as a chaser. I’d say this run puts JOIN TOGETHER 2nd only to Grands Crus amongst the staying novice chasers and (on a line thru’ Sonofvic) Nicholls will know just how good that one is.
The next race on the card - the class 2 handicap chase - fell apart when Tanks For That and Dave’s Dream both lost their riders at the 4th-last. Takeroc was already beaten when he fell at the next fence as he needs the bare 2-mile on a flat track to show his best. As such, my selection HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO was left in front and very quickly seemed unhappy with the situation with subsequent winner Astracad taking-up the running after the 3rd-last fence. He stayed-on again after the 2nd last (as he was now chasing rather than leading) but he was unable to re-assert his authority on the race. He should stay on OR135 and I feel he’ll be best going right-handed (has won twice at Ludlow) as he held his head oddly, and he could also stay up to 2m4f. As for Rileyev, the sooner he steps up to 2m4f, the better in my opinion.
The novice hurdle was dominated by SEA OF THUNDER – a half-bro’ to champion hurdler MAC’S JOY – who stole a commanding lead going to the final flight with the race at his mercy, but there he fell in spectacular fashion. Given he’d been put in his place by Hazy Tom LTO at Wetherby it could just be that that unbeaten 5yo (who is entered to run at Ascot next week) could be a lot better than the OR143 rating he’s been allotted. Whatever, SEA OF THUNDER is improving fast and looks to be OR140+ and might yet be worthy of being mentioned in the same sentence as his illustrious half-bro’.
The feature race of the meeting, the Spinal Research Gold Cup, went to Quantitativeeasing, a horse that I was not surprised to see win over a course and trip that he has excelled at. He has improved with every run prior to today, but in this race he matched his best effort and he may find life tough when re-rated as he’ll surely go up at least 7lb. Medermit in 2nd is as consisitent a horse as you’ll find and runs to the same level over fences as he did as a hurdler, 157-159. He is the benchmark for this race. Roudoudouville had the race won jumping the last, but the Cheltenham hill claimed him. If he stays on OR145 he can win a race over 2m4f. As for my selection GHIZAO, he made a couple of errors in his jumping and at halfway I’d almost given up on him. But, at the top o’the hill he travelled quickly into contention and looked to be travelling best after 3-out and landed in 3rd at the 2nd-last. However, he did not stay the final couple of furlongs and his effort petered-out. The tactical speed he showed in this competitive race marked him out as a classy horse, and a race over 2m1f or 2m2f could see him at his best. I still think he has the potential to run well in the QM Champion Chase next March for which he is 33/1.
The Grade 2 International hurdle produced another top hurdler in GRANDOUET for Nicky Henderson to go alongside Binocular, and Oskar Whisky. The runner-up Overturn won the Fighting Fifth hurdle last week and I reckon matched that performance in this, which puts GRANDOUET at about 160 (Overturn has never run better than 160, so where the handicapper gets OR168 from is anyone’s guess). Overturn will never win a Champion Hurdle, but GRANDOUET might. The RP’s race analysis tries to dampen down GRANDOUET’s Champion Hurdle potential by coming out with the “5yo’s don’t run well in the Champion Hurdle” bunkum, which should be binned alongside “2½ milers go well in the National”, and “French-breds don’t stay the National trip”. Let’s look at the facts:-
In 2011 – 2 x 5yo’s ran, Clerks Choice (6th) and Mille Chief (last of 11).
In 2010 - a 5yo was 3rd (Zaynar),
in 2009 - 5yo's came 2nd, 3rd and 4th (Celestial Halo, Binocular, Crack Away Jack - 23 ran)
In 2008 - a 5yo's came 1st and 3rd (Katchit, Punjabi - the only 2 5yo's in the race)
In 2007 - a 5yo came 3rd (Afsoun) with the only other 5yo (Detroit City) in 6th.
In 2006 - there were 3 x 5yo's in the race rated, OR145, OR147 and OR154
In last 5 years, 5yo's have filled 7 of the 16 available places (was 4th paid in 2009?) - that's a helluva strike-rate for an "age" so easily dissed – when they only provided 10 of the total 71 runners in those 5 years! On those stats, I’d say every 5yo that runs in the Champion Hurdle should be backed.
Along with GRANDOUET, the 3rd-placed horse BRAMPOUR ran in last March’s Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, and this is looking like having been a classic year for the 4yo’s.
The final race on the day’s entertaining card saw OSCAR WHISKY win at odds-on. He is the best performing hurdler this side of the Irish Sea seen this autumn and should be a lot shorter than 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle. The reason he’s not is that he’s probably more likely to go for the World Hurdle (for which he’s 8/1) and whether that’s the case will likely be answered if he takes up his entry for the Long Walk Hurdle next week at Ascot.
At Punchestown today (Sunday) we have the John Durkan Memorial Chase, a Grade 1 event over 2m4f. On official ratings there is very little splitting the main contenders. Top-rated is Rubi Light who will have going and trip in his favour but, for me, the jury is still out on whether he is really an OR164 horse, as he wasn’t beating OR137 rated Coolcashin much when he fell at the last (was re-mounted and finished 3rd) LTO. JONCOL will also love the trip and going and won this race 2 years ago as a 6yo. For me, he is the one they all have to beat. Were this race over 3-mile, I would not hesitate in nominating Kempes as I feel he needs further than 2m4f.The trip and going will also suit Tranquil Sea, but I feel he’s more of a 155-157 rated chaser, whereas JONCOL is 160-163. Interestingly, Barry Geraghty who rode both these horses when they last ran (and won on both) has opted for Tranquil Sea, and so Paul Carberry has the ride on JONCOL. If Geraghty’s choice results in the odds shortening on Tranquil Sea (from 7/2) then it could be that I can obtain 3/1 or even 7/2 about JONCOL and that would represent value in my book as at his current odds of 5/2 the market has it about right.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 25
Winners = 5
Points staked = 30pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 13.60pts (ROI = 45.33%)
Yesterday’s meeting at Cheltenham was very informative in my opinion, and should throw-up a fair few winners, possibly even a Festival winner.
It started with the odds-on Hinterland being turned-over by the 14/1 BABY MIX who was having his hurdling debut in England having raced in France till mid-October and only joined trainer Tom George on 21st November, 3 weeks ago. BABY MIX looked very impressive indeed.
The 3-mile novice chase has been won by some decent horses, and 3 times in the past 7 years by Paul Nicholls (with Inchidaly Rock, What A Friend, Cornish Rebel). As such, his winner of this JOIN TOGETHER looks to have a bright future. He fell in his debut chase on 22nd Oct and, based on the form of that race, he may have gone close had he finished. The form of his next run (which he won) has worked out well enough. Mossley did not jump well today in defeat, so that tempers the form of today's race a little, but he was well there till stamina told from 2-out. Mossley is also clearly a smaller horse than JOIN TOGETHER and he may struggle as a chaser. I’d say this run puts JOIN TOGETHER 2nd only to Grands Crus amongst the staying novice chasers and (on a line thru’ Sonofvic) Nicholls will know just how good that one is.
The next race on the card - the class 2 handicap chase - fell apart when Tanks For That and Dave’s Dream both lost their riders at the 4th-last. Takeroc was already beaten when he fell at the next fence as he needs the bare 2-mile on a flat track to show his best. As such, my selection HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO was left in front and very quickly seemed unhappy with the situation with subsequent winner Astracad taking-up the running after the 3rd-last fence. He stayed-on again after the 2nd last (as he was now chasing rather than leading) but he was unable to re-assert his authority on the race. He should stay on OR135 and I feel he’ll be best going right-handed (has won twice at Ludlow) as he held his head oddly, and he could also stay up to 2m4f. As for Rileyev, the sooner he steps up to 2m4f, the better in my opinion.
The novice hurdle was dominated by SEA OF THUNDER – a half-bro’ to champion hurdler MAC’S JOY – who stole a commanding lead going to the final flight with the race at his mercy, but there he fell in spectacular fashion. Given he’d been put in his place by Hazy Tom LTO at Wetherby it could just be that that unbeaten 5yo (who is entered to run at Ascot next week) could be a lot better than the OR143 rating he’s been allotted. Whatever, SEA OF THUNDER is improving fast and looks to be OR140+ and might yet be worthy of being mentioned in the same sentence as his illustrious half-bro’.
The feature race of the meeting, the Spinal Research Gold Cup, went to Quantitativeeasing, a horse that I was not surprised to see win over a course and trip that he has excelled at. He has improved with every run prior to today, but in this race he matched his best effort and he may find life tough when re-rated as he’ll surely go up at least 7lb. Medermit in 2nd is as consisitent a horse as you’ll find and runs to the same level over fences as he did as a hurdler, 157-159. He is the benchmark for this race. Roudoudouville had the race won jumping the last, but the Cheltenham hill claimed him. If he stays on OR145 he can win a race over 2m4f. As for my selection GHIZAO, he made a couple of errors in his jumping and at halfway I’d almost given up on him. But, at the top o’the hill he travelled quickly into contention and looked to be travelling best after 3-out and landed in 3rd at the 2nd-last. However, he did not stay the final couple of furlongs and his effort petered-out. The tactical speed he showed in this competitive race marked him out as a classy horse, and a race over 2m1f or 2m2f could see him at his best. I still think he has the potential to run well in the QM Champion Chase next March for which he is 33/1.
The Grade 2 International hurdle produced another top hurdler in GRANDOUET for Nicky Henderson to go alongside Binocular, and Oskar Whisky. The runner-up Overturn won the Fighting Fifth hurdle last week and I reckon matched that performance in this, which puts GRANDOUET at about 160 (Overturn has never run better than 160, so where the handicapper gets OR168 from is anyone’s guess). Overturn will never win a Champion Hurdle, but GRANDOUET might. The RP’s race analysis tries to dampen down GRANDOUET’s Champion Hurdle potential by coming out with the “5yo’s don’t run well in the Champion Hurdle” bunkum, which should be binned alongside “2½ milers go well in the National”, and “French-breds don’t stay the National trip”. Let’s look at the facts:-
In 2011 – 2 x 5yo’s ran, Clerks Choice (6th) and Mille Chief (last of 11).
In 2010 - a 5yo was 3rd (Zaynar),
in 2009 - 5yo's came 2nd, 3rd and 4th (Celestial Halo, Binocular, Crack Away Jack - 23 ran)
In 2008 - a 5yo's came 1st and 3rd (Katchit, Punjabi - the only 2 5yo's in the race)
In 2007 - a 5yo came 3rd (Afsoun) with the only other 5yo (Detroit City) in 6th.
In 2006 - there were 3 x 5yo's in the race rated, OR145, OR147 and OR154
In last 5 years, 5yo's have filled 7 of the 16 available places (was 4th paid in 2009?) - that's a helluva strike-rate for an "age" so easily dissed – when they only provided 10 of the total 71 runners in those 5 years! On those stats, I’d say every 5yo that runs in the Champion Hurdle should be backed.
Along with GRANDOUET, the 3rd-placed horse BRAMPOUR ran in last March’s Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, and this is looking like having been a classic year for the 4yo’s.
The final race on the day’s entertaining card saw OSCAR WHISKY win at odds-on. He is the best performing hurdler this side of the Irish Sea seen this autumn and should be a lot shorter than 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle. The reason he’s not is that he’s probably more likely to go for the World Hurdle (for which he’s 8/1) and whether that’s the case will likely be answered if he takes up his entry for the Long Walk Hurdle next week at Ascot.
At Punchestown today (Sunday) we have the John Durkan Memorial Chase, a Grade 1 event over 2m4f. On official ratings there is very little splitting the main contenders. Top-rated is Rubi Light who will have going and trip in his favour but, for me, the jury is still out on whether he is really an OR164 horse, as he wasn’t beating OR137 rated Coolcashin much when he fell at the last (was re-mounted and finished 3rd) LTO. JONCOL will also love the trip and going and won this race 2 years ago as a 6yo. For me, he is the one they all have to beat. Were this race over 3-mile, I would not hesitate in nominating Kempes as I feel he needs further than 2m4f.The trip and going will also suit Tranquil Sea, but I feel he’s more of a 155-157 rated chaser, whereas JONCOL is 160-163. Interestingly, Barry Geraghty who rode both these horses when they last ran (and won on both) has opted for Tranquil Sea, and so Paul Carberry has the ride on JONCOL. If Geraghty’s choice results in the odds shortening on Tranquil Sea (from 7/2) then it could be that I can obtain 3/1 or even 7/2 about JONCOL and that would represent value in my book as at his current odds of 5/2 the market has it about right.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 10 December 2011
A landmark page - the 400th blog post
The 400th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 23
Winners = 5
Points staked = 28pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 15.60pts (ROI = 55.71%)
Wow! The 400th blog page, who would’ve thought it?
It’s an auspicious day for the blog, so let’s see if we can mark it with a good winner.
There was no blog yesterday. I’ve just started a new job and the opportunities for sneaking half-an-hour in the morning to write and post-up the blog online are scarce. However, I am working on it and will probably have to resort to writing the blog the evening before racing on the train home from work. The majority of my selections emanate from my personal alert list and, so long as I can keep on top of that, I should be able to maintain my performance.
Thursday’s selections were a little disappointing. THE COCKNEY MACKEM ran a decent enough race and looked like winning 3-out (touched 1.20 in-running) but in the end, he had no effective response when challenged. As for ROSSBRIN, the race came too soon after the bold effort of his previous run.
There are a stack from my alert list running today: they are:-
Cheltenham
12:45 Join Together & Traffic Article
1:20 Takeroc
2:30 Great Endeavour / Ghizao / I’msingingtheblues / Quantitativeeasing / Roudoudou Ville
3:05 Brampour
3:35 Any Given Day & The Knoxs
Doncaster
1:05 Lively Baron & Emmaslegend
2:15 Quite The Man
3:20 Benny Be Good
Lingfield
12:20 Goring One
2:05 Helpston & Carpincho
The feature meeting is Cheltenham. Let’s get to it and the 12:45 has a couple of non-runners now so just 5 go to post. If TRAFFIC ARTICLE repeats his form of his LTO win here over an extended 3-mile then he’s going to need a good one to beat him on today’s terms, at 7/1 he’s the value for me in this.
The 1:20 looks a tricky race on paper. I feel TAKEROC needs a flat track and Cheltenham wont suit him. Tanks For That is best fresh, as he proved LTO, but the runner-up that day HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO looks to have a great chance here as he’s likely got the stamina to stay 2m4f (and he’ll need that today in this over 2m & 110yds) and looks to be improving still. Rileyev will be arriving late on the scene, possibly too late; and Oh Crick seems to find nothing under pressure these days despite travelling well in his races. Astracad has been highly tried and his form is difficult to weigh-up, as such I feel the balance of probabilities lies with HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO at 4/1.
The feature race at 2:30 is very competitive and why it cannot find a decent long-term sponsor is beyond me. Great Endeavour would have won the Hennessey had it been a 3-mile race and I think he is still competitive off OR157 which is 6lb higher than he ran off in the Hennessey. Ditto, I’mSingingtheblues who should be able to win off OR152, but not over this trip. IT would not surprise me to see Quantitativeeasing win today, but then Divers who finished just behind him LTO has a similar chance. Given the ”good” going, I am surprised that GHIZAO runs in this, but his rating of OR154 is (in my opinion) very lenient and he should be 160+. He was not pushed at all LTO after a couple of early errors and Ruby Walsh being in the saddle gives me more confidence. He’s 17/2 with some bookies, and that is too long.
I’m hoping Sanctuaire does not run too big a race in the International hurdle at 3:05 as I reckon his OR150 rating is very exploitable. Let’s hope he’s used as a pacemaker for BRAMPOUR, and drops out early. The Relkeel hurdle at 3:35 should be a near walk-over for OSCAR WHISKY who looks a decent antepost for the Champion Hurdle (if that’s what his target is).
Lingfield has been abandoned as I write this, and there is a further inspection planned at 10:30am at Doncaster
I’ll post this now, and return to Doncaster later if I see a selection there.
Selections
Cheltenham 1:20, HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:30, GHIZAO, 1pt win @ 17/2 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 23
Winners = 5
Points staked = 28pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 15.60pts (ROI = 55.71%)
Wow! The 400th blog page, who would’ve thought it?
It’s an auspicious day for the blog, so let’s see if we can mark it with a good winner.
There was no blog yesterday. I’ve just started a new job and the opportunities for sneaking half-an-hour in the morning to write and post-up the blog online are scarce. However, I am working on it and will probably have to resort to writing the blog the evening before racing on the train home from work. The majority of my selections emanate from my personal alert list and, so long as I can keep on top of that, I should be able to maintain my performance.
Thursday’s selections were a little disappointing. THE COCKNEY MACKEM ran a decent enough race and looked like winning 3-out (touched 1.20 in-running) but in the end, he had no effective response when challenged. As for ROSSBRIN, the race came too soon after the bold effort of his previous run.
There are a stack from my alert list running today: they are:-
Cheltenham
12:45 Join Together & Traffic Article
1:20 Takeroc
2:30 Great Endeavour / Ghizao / I’msingingtheblues / Quantitativeeasing / Roudoudou Ville
3:05 Brampour
3:35 Any Given Day & The Knoxs
Doncaster
1:05 Lively Baron & Emmaslegend
2:15 Quite The Man
3:20 Benny Be Good
Lingfield
12:20 Goring One
2:05 Helpston & Carpincho
The feature meeting is Cheltenham. Let’s get to it and the 12:45 has a couple of non-runners now so just 5 go to post. If TRAFFIC ARTICLE repeats his form of his LTO win here over an extended 3-mile then he’s going to need a good one to beat him on today’s terms, at 7/1 he’s the value for me in this.
The 1:20 looks a tricky race on paper. I feel TAKEROC needs a flat track and Cheltenham wont suit him. Tanks For That is best fresh, as he proved LTO, but the runner-up that day HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO looks to have a great chance here as he’s likely got the stamina to stay 2m4f (and he’ll need that today in this over 2m & 110yds) and looks to be improving still. Rileyev will be arriving late on the scene, possibly too late; and Oh Crick seems to find nothing under pressure these days despite travelling well in his races. Astracad has been highly tried and his form is difficult to weigh-up, as such I feel the balance of probabilities lies with HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO at 4/1.
The feature race at 2:30 is very competitive and why it cannot find a decent long-term sponsor is beyond me. Great Endeavour would have won the Hennessey had it been a 3-mile race and I think he is still competitive off OR157 which is 6lb higher than he ran off in the Hennessey. Ditto, I’mSingingtheblues who should be able to win off OR152, but not over this trip. IT would not surprise me to see Quantitativeeasing win today, but then Divers who finished just behind him LTO has a similar chance. Given the ”good” going, I am surprised that GHIZAO runs in this, but his rating of OR154 is (in my opinion) very lenient and he should be 160+. He was not pushed at all LTO after a couple of early errors and Ruby Walsh being in the saddle gives me more confidence. He’s 17/2 with some bookies, and that is too long.
I’m hoping Sanctuaire does not run too big a race in the International hurdle at 3:05 as I reckon his OR150 rating is very exploitable. Let’s hope he’s used as a pacemaker for BRAMPOUR, and drops out early. The Relkeel hurdle at 3:35 should be a near walk-over for OSCAR WHISKY who looks a decent antepost for the Champion Hurdle (if that’s what his target is).
Lingfield has been abandoned as I write this, and there is a further inspection planned at 10:30am at Doncaster
I’ll post this now, and return to Doncaster later if I see a selection there.
Selections
Cheltenham 1:20, HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:30, GHIZAO, 1pt win @ 17/2 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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