The 401st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 25
Winners = 5
Points staked = 30pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 13.60pts (ROI = 45.33%)
Yesterday’s meeting at Cheltenham was very informative in my opinion, and should throw-up a fair few winners, possibly even a Festival winner.
It started with the odds-on Hinterland being turned-over by the 14/1 BABY MIX who was having his hurdling debut in England having raced in France till mid-October and only joined trainer Tom George on 21st November, 3 weeks ago. BABY MIX looked very impressive indeed.
The 3-mile novice chase has been won by some decent horses, and 3 times in the past 7 years by Paul Nicholls (with Inchidaly Rock, What A Friend, Cornish Rebel). As such, his winner of this JOIN TOGETHER looks to have a bright future. He fell in his debut chase on 22nd Oct and, based on the form of that race, he may have gone close had he finished. The form of his next run (which he won) has worked out well enough. Mossley did not jump well today in defeat, so that tempers the form of today's race a little, but he was well there till stamina told from 2-out. Mossley is also clearly a smaller horse than JOIN TOGETHER and he may struggle as a chaser. I’d say this run puts JOIN TOGETHER 2nd only to Grands Crus amongst the staying novice chasers and (on a line thru’ Sonofvic) Nicholls will know just how good that one is.
The next race on the card - the class 2 handicap chase - fell apart when Tanks For That and Dave’s Dream both lost their riders at the 4th-last. Takeroc was already beaten when he fell at the next fence as he needs the bare 2-mile on a flat track to show his best. As such, my selection HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO was left in front and very quickly seemed unhappy with the situation with subsequent winner Astracad taking-up the running after the 3rd-last fence. He stayed-on again after the 2nd last (as he was now chasing rather than leading) but he was unable to re-assert his authority on the race. He should stay on OR135 and I feel he’ll be best going right-handed (has won twice at Ludlow) as he held his head oddly, and he could also stay up to 2m4f. As for Rileyev, the sooner he steps up to 2m4f, the better in my opinion.
The novice hurdle was dominated by SEA OF THUNDER – a half-bro’ to champion hurdler MAC’S JOY – who stole a commanding lead going to the final flight with the race at his mercy, but there he fell in spectacular fashion. Given he’d been put in his place by Hazy Tom LTO at Wetherby it could just be that that unbeaten 5yo (who is entered to run at Ascot next week) could be a lot better than the OR143 rating he’s been allotted. Whatever, SEA OF THUNDER is improving fast and looks to be OR140+ and might yet be worthy of being mentioned in the same sentence as his illustrious half-bro’.
The feature race of the meeting, the Spinal Research Gold Cup, went to Quantitativeeasing, a horse that I was not surprised to see win over a course and trip that he has excelled at. He has improved with every run prior to today, but in this race he matched his best effort and he may find life tough when re-rated as he’ll surely go up at least 7lb. Medermit in 2nd is as consisitent a horse as you’ll find and runs to the same level over fences as he did as a hurdler, 157-159. He is the benchmark for this race. Roudoudouville had the race won jumping the last, but the Cheltenham hill claimed him. If he stays on OR145 he can win a race over 2m4f. As for my selection GHIZAO, he made a couple of errors in his jumping and at halfway I’d almost given up on him. But, at the top o’the hill he travelled quickly into contention and looked to be travelling best after 3-out and landed in 3rd at the 2nd-last. However, he did not stay the final couple of furlongs and his effort petered-out. The tactical speed he showed in this competitive race marked him out as a classy horse, and a race over 2m1f or 2m2f could see him at his best. I still think he has the potential to run well in the QM Champion Chase next March for which he is 33/1.
The Grade 2 International hurdle produced another top hurdler in GRANDOUET for Nicky Henderson to go alongside Binocular, and Oskar Whisky. The runner-up Overturn won the Fighting Fifth hurdle last week and I reckon matched that performance in this, which puts GRANDOUET at about 160 (Overturn has never run better than 160, so where the handicapper gets OR168 from is anyone’s guess). Overturn will never win a Champion Hurdle, but GRANDOUET might. The RP’s race analysis tries to dampen down GRANDOUET’s Champion Hurdle potential by coming out with the “5yo’s don’t run well in the Champion Hurdle” bunkum, which should be binned alongside “2½ milers go well in the National”, and “French-breds don’t stay the National trip”. Let’s look at the facts:-
In 2011 – 2 x 5yo’s ran, Clerks Choice (6th) and Mille Chief (last of 11).
In 2010 - a 5yo was 3rd (Zaynar),
in 2009 - 5yo's came 2nd, 3rd and 4th (Celestial Halo, Binocular, Crack Away Jack - 23 ran)
In 2008 - a 5yo's came 1st and 3rd (Katchit, Punjabi - the only 2 5yo's in the race)
In 2007 - a 5yo came 3rd (Afsoun) with the only other 5yo (Detroit City) in 6th.
In 2006 - there were 3 x 5yo's in the race rated, OR145, OR147 and OR154
In last 5 years, 5yo's have filled 7 of the 16 available places (was 4th paid in 2009?) - that's a helluva strike-rate for an "age" so easily dissed – when they only provided 10 of the total 71 runners in those 5 years! On those stats, I’d say every 5yo that runs in the Champion Hurdle should be backed.
Along with GRANDOUET, the 3rd-placed horse BRAMPOUR ran in last March’s Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, and this is looking like having been a classic year for the 4yo’s.
The final race on the day’s entertaining card saw OSCAR WHISKY win at odds-on. He is the best performing hurdler this side of the Irish Sea seen this autumn and should be a lot shorter than 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle. The reason he’s not is that he’s probably more likely to go for the World Hurdle (for which he’s 8/1) and whether that’s the case will likely be answered if he takes up his entry for the Long Walk Hurdle next week at Ascot.
At Punchestown today (Sunday) we have the John Durkan Memorial Chase, a Grade 1 event over 2m4f. On official ratings there is very little splitting the main contenders. Top-rated is Rubi Light who will have going and trip in his favour but, for me, the jury is still out on whether he is really an OR164 horse, as he wasn’t beating OR137 rated Coolcashin much when he fell at the last (was re-mounted and finished 3rd) LTO. JONCOL will also love the trip and going and won this race 2 years ago as a 6yo. For me, he is the one they all have to beat. Were this race over 3-mile, I would not hesitate in nominating Kempes as I feel he needs further than 2m4f.The trip and going will also suit Tranquil Sea, but I feel he’s more of a 155-157 rated chaser, whereas JONCOL is 160-163. Interestingly, Barry Geraghty who rode both these horses when they last ran (and won on both) has opted for Tranquil Sea, and so Paul Carberry has the ride on JONCOL. If Geraghty’s choice results in the odds shortening on Tranquil Sea (from 7/2) then it could be that I can obtain 3/1 or even 7/2 about JONCOL and that would represent value in my book as at his current odds of 5/2 the market has it about right.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Showing posts with label Punchestown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Punchestown. Show all posts
Sunday, 11 December 2011
Wednesday, 26 October 2011
3 to Follow for the Jumps - from Wayward Lad
The 366th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
For the last jumps season 2010-11, I produced a “Horse Alert List” identifying 19 horses to form the basis for an alert list for the season, and the results of that alert list are still available on the blog (see adjacent page). Of the 19 selected horses on the list, 3 did not run all season (Ebadiyan died in December 2010, Kalellshan has not been seen since winning at the Galway Festival of 2010, and Going Wrong finally reappeared in a novice chase last week). The other 16 horses ran a total of 63 times between 1st November 2010 and Sunday 10th April 2011 (the day after Grand National day) winning 10 races between them. What was remarkable about the list was that after Absolute Shambles lost on 1st February, the list was losing 53.25pts to recommended stakes (if 4/1 or under, 2pts win; over 4/1, 1pt eachway); but between then and close-of-play on Grand National day, the list recovered 35.125pts at SP.
There were mistakes and lessons learned from the list; Free World (ran 4, lost 4), Pickamus (ran 6, lost 6) and Cesium (ran 4, lost 4) were clearly badly handicapped and they may be worth taking a look at this season. Others, like Mont Present (ran once) Weird Al (ran 3, won 1, injured LTO), Gentle Ranger (ran 4, 4th in Midlands National), Midnight Haze (ran 3, won 1) and Rapid Increase (ran 3, won 1) still have a lot of potential. I am a bit gutted that I did not run the list from 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011, as the summer hat-trick by ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES (won at 25/1, 8/1 and 5/2) would surely have taken the list into profit for the season!
That introduction brings me to suggesting 3 horses to follow for the 2011-12 Jumps season, and they are:-
FLAT OUT – Willie Mullins unexposed 2nd-season chaser was last seen leading the Irish “Arkle” field into the 2nd-last fence and looking fully in command. That field included REALT DUBH (subsequently 3rd in the “Arkle” at the Festival to Captain Chris) and NOBLE PRINCE (won the Jewson Novice Chase over 2m5f at the Festival). It should be remembered that FLAT OUT was 5th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in what was only his 2nd hurdle race; the 1st four finishers being Menorah, Get Me Out Of Here, Dunguib, and Oscar Whisky; that was some performance and this has turned-out to be spectacular form!
Currently, FLAT OUT is rated on a very lenient handicap chasing mark of OR146 (Realt Dubh is now on OR157, and Noble Prince is on OR160). Mullins has him entered for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham next month, for which his odds are currently at 14/1. Myself, I would not be surprised to see this horse follow a similar path to that of Exotic Dancer in 2006/07, mopping-up top handicaps en-route to a Festival appearance.
GHIZAO- Paul Nicholls targeted this horse at the “Arkle” very early in the 2010-11 season. His win at Cheltenham in November 2010 was in a fast time and he had subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris well behind him that day. They met again at Newbury, and again (despite a 10lb penalty) GHIZAO put Captain Chris in his place. They next met in the “Arkle” itself and, as a vocal supporter of GHIZAO from that November race, he was carrying one of my larger wagers. It went wrong when at the top o’the hill, GHIZAO took-off half-a-stride too soon causing his lower abdomen to land on top of the fence. That mistake knocked the stuffing from him and he coasted thereon to the finish. He was next seen at Aintree where he met Finians Rainbow (2nd in the Arkle btn 2¾ lengths) at levels and, but for colliding with that horse at the 2nd-last and coming-off worst, he may well have won. Clearly, Captain Chris was a better horse in the Spring than he was in the previous autumn, but whether he is better than GHIZAO (should the latter get a clear round) is debateable. Paul Nicholls has already pencilled in races like the Tingle Creek en-route to taking-in the Queen Mother Champion Chase next March, and I reckon he will prove worthy. Currently 20/1 for the QMCC, he’s due to start this campaign in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on 1st November and we should see an improvement in his jumping.
My final horse of the 3 took a lot of deliberation. Having already nominated an Irish horse in FLAT OUT, I wanted to include another trained on this side of the Irish Sea. The Irish, going into the 2011-12 season, have perhaps their strongest “squad” for many a year; Noble Prince, Bostons Angel, and Hurricane Fly are just the tip of an iceberg of talent. Given the furore over the revised “whip” rules that is causing consternation amongst jockeys and punters, the horses that seem best-placed to benefit are those that love to bowl-along in front running & jumping for the pleasure of it and so requiring the minimum use of the whip. As such, my final choice for my 3-to-Follow is:-
WISHFUL THINKING trained by Phil Hobbs. Altho’ he was well-held by Noble Prince in the “Jewson” at the Festival, his two subsequent victories at Aintree and Punchestown showed him to be thoroughly top-class. This was especially so the way he put Medermit to the sword at Aintree. Given his style of running, a possible excuse for his defeat at the hands of Noble Prince was that he went-off too fast on ground that was probably too quick for him. Remember, he failed to act on similar going at Aintree in April 2010 and when the word “soft” appears in the going description he has won 5 from 7 (2nd on his debut NH Flat race, and fell at the 1st fence on his novice chase debut). Altho’ he has never run beyond 2m5f, he has only lacked the stamina to win when beaten by Noble Prince, so 3-mile should be within his scope. He could just be capable of leading all-the-way (like Desert Orchid) in the King George on Boxing Day for which he is currently 14/1.
No selections for the blog today despite there being an attractive meeting at Haydock.
Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online. If anyone has any problems with it please tell me.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
For the last jumps season 2010-11, I produced a “Horse Alert List” identifying 19 horses to form the basis for an alert list for the season, and the results of that alert list are still available on the blog (see adjacent page). Of the 19 selected horses on the list, 3 did not run all season (Ebadiyan died in December 2010, Kalellshan has not been seen since winning at the Galway Festival of 2010, and Going Wrong finally reappeared in a novice chase last week). The other 16 horses ran a total of 63 times between 1st November 2010 and Sunday 10th April 2011 (the day after Grand National day) winning 10 races between them. What was remarkable about the list was that after Absolute Shambles lost on 1st February, the list was losing 53.25pts to recommended stakes (if 4/1 or under, 2pts win; over 4/1, 1pt eachway); but between then and close-of-play on Grand National day, the list recovered 35.125pts at SP.
There were mistakes and lessons learned from the list; Free World (ran 4, lost 4), Pickamus (ran 6, lost 6) and Cesium (ran 4, lost 4) were clearly badly handicapped and they may be worth taking a look at this season. Others, like Mont Present (ran once) Weird Al (ran 3, won 1, injured LTO), Gentle Ranger (ran 4, 4th in Midlands National), Midnight Haze (ran 3, won 1) and Rapid Increase (ran 3, won 1) still have a lot of potential. I am a bit gutted that I did not run the list from 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011, as the summer hat-trick by ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES (won at 25/1, 8/1 and 5/2) would surely have taken the list into profit for the season!
That introduction brings me to suggesting 3 horses to follow for the 2011-12 Jumps season, and they are:-
FLAT OUT – Willie Mullins unexposed 2nd-season chaser was last seen leading the Irish “Arkle” field into the 2nd-last fence and looking fully in command. That field included REALT DUBH (subsequently 3rd in the “Arkle” at the Festival to Captain Chris) and NOBLE PRINCE (won the Jewson Novice Chase over 2m5f at the Festival). It should be remembered that FLAT OUT was 5th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in what was only his 2nd hurdle race; the 1st four finishers being Menorah, Get Me Out Of Here, Dunguib, and Oscar Whisky; that was some performance and this has turned-out to be spectacular form!
Currently, FLAT OUT is rated on a very lenient handicap chasing mark of OR146 (Realt Dubh is now on OR157, and Noble Prince is on OR160). Mullins has him entered for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham next month, for which his odds are currently at 14/1. Myself, I would not be surprised to see this horse follow a similar path to that of Exotic Dancer in 2006/07, mopping-up top handicaps en-route to a Festival appearance.
GHIZAO- Paul Nicholls targeted this horse at the “Arkle” very early in the 2010-11 season. His win at Cheltenham in November 2010 was in a fast time and he had subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris well behind him that day. They met again at Newbury, and again (despite a 10lb penalty) GHIZAO put Captain Chris in his place. They next met in the “Arkle” itself and, as a vocal supporter of GHIZAO from that November race, he was carrying one of my larger wagers. It went wrong when at the top o’the hill, GHIZAO took-off half-a-stride too soon causing his lower abdomen to land on top of the fence. That mistake knocked the stuffing from him and he coasted thereon to the finish. He was next seen at Aintree where he met Finians Rainbow (2nd in the Arkle btn 2¾ lengths) at levels and, but for colliding with that horse at the 2nd-last and coming-off worst, he may well have won. Clearly, Captain Chris was a better horse in the Spring than he was in the previous autumn, but whether he is better than GHIZAO (should the latter get a clear round) is debateable. Paul Nicholls has already pencilled in races like the Tingle Creek en-route to taking-in the Queen Mother Champion Chase next March, and I reckon he will prove worthy. Currently 20/1 for the QMCC, he’s due to start this campaign in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on 1st November and we should see an improvement in his jumping.
My final horse of the 3 took a lot of deliberation. Having already nominated an Irish horse in FLAT OUT, I wanted to include another trained on this side of the Irish Sea. The Irish, going into the 2011-12 season, have perhaps their strongest “squad” for many a year; Noble Prince, Bostons Angel, and Hurricane Fly are just the tip of an iceberg of talent. Given the furore over the revised “whip” rules that is causing consternation amongst jockeys and punters, the horses that seem best-placed to benefit are those that love to bowl-along in front running & jumping for the pleasure of it and so requiring the minimum use of the whip. As such, my final choice for my 3-to-Follow is:-
WISHFUL THINKING trained by Phil Hobbs. Altho’ he was well-held by Noble Prince in the “Jewson” at the Festival, his two subsequent victories at Aintree and Punchestown showed him to be thoroughly top-class. This was especially so the way he put Medermit to the sword at Aintree. Given his style of running, a possible excuse for his defeat at the hands of Noble Prince was that he went-off too fast on ground that was probably too quick for him. Remember, he failed to act on similar going at Aintree in April 2010 and when the word “soft” appears in the going description he has won 5 from 7 (2nd on his debut NH Flat race, and fell at the 1st fence on his novice chase debut). Altho’ he has never run beyond 2m5f, he has only lacked the stamina to win when beaten by Noble Prince, so 3-mile should be within his scope. He could just be capable of leading all-the-way (like Desert Orchid) in the King George on Boxing Day for which he is currently 14/1.
No selections for the blog today despite there being an attractive meeting at Haydock.
Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online. If anyone has any problems with it please tell me.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 19 October 2011
Shares available in CHILWORTH LASS
The 360th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday with CAPTAIN DASH being a non-runner.
With horseracing being poor yesterday, I took a look at the Trainers Stats for Jump Racing over the past 4 years to see if I could find any interesting pointers. This is a “work in progress” and something that I will add to “as & when” - so, don’t think this is the last of the trainer-form blogs. I will not be looking at the likes of Nicholls, Henderson etc as the horses from those stables are well researched anyway. What I’m looking for are trainers who regularly have 20+ winners during the winter who have greater than expected strike-rates with either hurdlers, or chasers, or before or after Xmas and the like.
David Arbuthnot
He does not have many horses in the stable (just 19 in 2010-11) but he had a 30% strike-rate for the season. Last season, he did particularly well with his hurdlers but that was unusual as he is consistently finding winners with his chasers. In the past 4 seasons he’s had 21 winners from 74 chases (28%) and considering not one was a 1st-time-out (FTO) winner (0 from 7) he’s a man to note, especially in chase races of class 3 or lower.
Kim Bailey
Currently undergoing a resurgence since moving to Thorndale Farm in Sept 2006. Many won’t know that Kim Bailey has won all of the “Big-3” races; the Grand National (1990: Mr Frisk), the Gold Cup (1995: Master Oats) and the Champion Hurdle (1995: Alderbrook). Bailey had his best season in years in 2010-11, but he seems particularly adept at placing his chasers; 14 wins from 59 chase runs and 6 of his 12 chasers won FTO. He should be especially noted when he sends one for a class 3 chase (or lower) at trips of 2m4f or longer (11 wins from 49 runs; +£41.58 to £1).
Next, a plug for the White Diamond Racing Partnership of which I am a member. This was formed to own and race the 3yo juvenile hurdler CHILWORTH LASS who is in training with Sheena West on the South Downs just outside Brighton. Sheena has been firing in the winners this autumn including a hat-trick with ALFRAAMSEY another 3yo hurdler that (like Chilworth Lass) was bought out of the Mick Channon yard. The vibes are good about Chilworth Lass and her debut over hurdles is anticipated to be in November. There are still a couple of shares left in the syndicate so if you are interested please contact whitediamondracing@gmail.com and Tom Castle or Stefan Fellows will sort out the details. I’ve a good feeling about this horse as she is tenacious and game and reminds me of Katchit (oh, were she to prove as good!).
A couple of jump meetings today, but both Fontwell and Worcester are suffering from good-to-firm ground. Racing at Fontwell looks uncompetitive although one from my private alert list – TARVINI – looks like he’s recapturing form of old and he could be an eachway wager in the hurdle at 4:30. So, the focus is on Worcester.
Paul Nicholls sends ALDERTUNE for the 3:15 which is a novice chase and while the Charlie Longsdon runner Vincitore must be respected, Nicholls thinks a lot of Aldertune and, in coming here, he must be considered one of his better novice chasers. Unfortunately, current odds of 11/10 (I was hoping for 9/4+) are too short and not value.
Charlie Longsdon sends one off my private alert list to Worcester – RESTEZEN D’ARMOR for the 4:20. Longsdon won this race last year with Sir Ian and, by comparison, the two horses are complete opposites – Sir Ian being a bold front-runner and Restezen D’Armor a hold-up horse; so-much-so that sometimes it looks like he’s given up! Another interesting one in the race is Rate Of Knots who looks extremely well handicapped on OR116. The doubt about him is the ground as he’s looked best suited by soft or worse, so why he’s running here today is debateable (have just learned he’s a non-runner). King Ozzy will no-doubt help make the pace and trainer Lawney Hill is 3 from 7 here with chasers and that makes his odds of 9/2 (Betfred) fair for this 6-runner race. It is hard to see RESTEZEN D’ARMOR being beaten now, but odds of 2/1 are not value (I’m wanting 5/2+).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections for the blog yesterday with CAPTAIN DASH being a non-runner.
With horseracing being poor yesterday, I took a look at the Trainers Stats for Jump Racing over the past 4 years to see if I could find any interesting pointers. This is a “work in progress” and something that I will add to “as & when” - so, don’t think this is the last of the trainer-form blogs. I will not be looking at the likes of Nicholls, Henderson etc as the horses from those stables are well researched anyway. What I’m looking for are trainers who regularly have 20+ winners during the winter who have greater than expected strike-rates with either hurdlers, or chasers, or before or after Xmas and the like.
David Arbuthnot
He does not have many horses in the stable (just 19 in 2010-11) but he had a 30% strike-rate for the season. Last season, he did particularly well with his hurdlers but that was unusual as he is consistently finding winners with his chasers. In the past 4 seasons he’s had 21 winners from 74 chases (28%) and considering not one was a 1st-time-out (FTO) winner (0 from 7) he’s a man to note, especially in chase races of class 3 or lower.
Kim Bailey
Currently undergoing a resurgence since moving to Thorndale Farm in Sept 2006. Many won’t know that Kim Bailey has won all of the “Big-3” races; the Grand National (1990: Mr Frisk), the Gold Cup (1995: Master Oats) and the Champion Hurdle (1995: Alderbrook). Bailey had his best season in years in 2010-11, but he seems particularly adept at placing his chasers; 14 wins from 59 chase runs and 6 of his 12 chasers won FTO. He should be especially noted when he sends one for a class 3 chase (or lower) at trips of 2m4f or longer (11 wins from 49 runs; +£41.58 to £1).
Next, a plug for the White Diamond Racing Partnership of which I am a member. This was formed to own and race the 3yo juvenile hurdler CHILWORTH LASS who is in training with Sheena West on the South Downs just outside Brighton. Sheena has been firing in the winners this autumn including a hat-trick with ALFRAAMSEY another 3yo hurdler that (like Chilworth Lass) was bought out of the Mick Channon yard. The vibes are good about Chilworth Lass and her debut over hurdles is anticipated to be in November. There are still a couple of shares left in the syndicate so if you are interested please contact whitediamondracing@gmail.com and Tom Castle or Stefan Fellows will sort out the details. I’ve a good feeling about this horse as she is tenacious and game and reminds me of Katchit (oh, were she to prove as good!).
A couple of jump meetings today, but both Fontwell and Worcester are suffering from good-to-firm ground. Racing at Fontwell looks uncompetitive although one from my private alert list – TARVINI – looks like he’s recapturing form of old and he could be an eachway wager in the hurdle at 4:30. So, the focus is on Worcester.
Paul Nicholls sends ALDERTUNE for the 3:15 which is a novice chase and while the Charlie Longsdon runner Vincitore must be respected, Nicholls thinks a lot of Aldertune and, in coming here, he must be considered one of his better novice chasers. Unfortunately, current odds of 11/10 (I was hoping for 9/4+) are too short and not value.
Charlie Longsdon sends one off my private alert list to Worcester – RESTEZEN D’ARMOR for the 4:20. Longsdon won this race last year with Sir Ian and, by comparison, the two horses are complete opposites – Sir Ian being a bold front-runner and Restezen D’Armor a hold-up horse; so-much-so that sometimes it looks like he’s given up! Another interesting one in the race is Rate Of Knots who looks extremely well handicapped on OR116. The doubt about him is the ground as he’s looked best suited by soft or worse, so why he’s running here today is debateable (have just learned he’s a non-runner). King Ozzy will no-doubt help make the pace and trainer Lawney Hill is 3 from 7 here with chasers and that makes his odds of 9/2 (Betfred) fair for this 6-runner race. It is hard to see RESTEZEN D’ARMOR being beaten now, but odds of 2/1 are not value (I’m wanting 5/2+).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 17 October 2011
Please register your interest - thanks!
The 358th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
No selections for the blog yesterday, but I wish I had posted up the couple that were on my alert list - as they both won!
For those who follow me via twitter (you can find me at @wayward_lad) you will know that I posted the following in Saturday evening at 10:39pm (just before watching Match Of The Day): “Sheena West sends well-regarded ALFRAAMSEY to Kempton for the opener tomorrow, and it's hard not to see him winning.” And win he did at odds of 15/8.
Later in the afternoon on Sunday, the horse I told you of in last Thursday’s blog – De Valira – won at Cork over a trip of 2m4f. Being ridden by Ruby Walsh probably helped, as did the extra couple of furlongs (ran over 2m2f on Thursday), and he won at the rewarding odds of 11/2 (opened at 13/2).
I may not post selections or write a daily blog – but (and I’ve written this before) there is plenty of information on this blog to help find you winning wagers. If you like having a wager on horseracing, then you should make this blog a regular port of call.
Could I ask a favour of readers of this blog?
I am trying to ascertain how many of the “hits” on the blog are actual visitors who read it, and how many are just search engines that “ping” the blog. Could you please “tick” one of the reaction boxes that are below this blog (just above the comments section)? Also, would anyone prefer to have the blog emailed to them when it is published online rather than have to visit it via the internet (I appreciate that some employers restrict internet access) and does anyone know a “tool” that I can add onto the blog that would allow visitors to register for such a service? The notification tool on this blog only tells visitors who register when there is a change on the blog, it does not tell them what the change is.
The meeting at Plumpton is disappointing today, so no selections.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
No selections for the blog yesterday, but I wish I had posted up the couple that were on my alert list - as they both won!
For those who follow me via twitter (you can find me at @wayward_lad) you will know that I posted the following in Saturday evening at 10:39pm (just before watching Match Of The Day): “Sheena West sends well-regarded ALFRAAMSEY to Kempton for the opener tomorrow, and it's hard not to see him winning.” And win he did at odds of 15/8.
Later in the afternoon on Sunday, the horse I told you of in last Thursday’s blog – De Valira – won at Cork over a trip of 2m4f. Being ridden by Ruby Walsh probably helped, as did the extra couple of furlongs (ran over 2m2f on Thursday), and he won at the rewarding odds of 11/2 (opened at 13/2).
I may not post selections or write a daily blog – but (and I’ve written this before) there is plenty of information on this blog to help find you winning wagers. If you like having a wager on horseracing, then you should make this blog a regular port of call.
Could I ask a favour of readers of this blog?
I am trying to ascertain how many of the “hits” on the blog are actual visitors who read it, and how many are just search engines that “ping” the blog. Could you please “tick” one of the reaction boxes that are below this blog (just above the comments section)? Also, would anyone prefer to have the blog emailed to them when it is published online rather than have to visit it via the internet (I appreciate that some employers restrict internet access) and does anyone know a “tool” that I can add onto the blog that would allow visitors to register for such a service? The notification tool on this blog only tells visitors who register when there is a change on the blog, it does not tell them what the change is.
The meeting at Plumpton is disappointing today, so no selections.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday, 13 October 2011
De Valira could show young-bloods the way home
The 354th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
Yesterday’s selection – ARCHIE’S WISH – was a non-runner.
In hindsight, it was probably another bullet missed as I very much doubt that he’d have been able to win the race yesterday as Charlie Longsdon continues to keep his stable runners in top-form and his entry in the race – Wide Receiver – won the race very easily.
My other “tentative” selection was TRES CORONAS, but he got no run at all as he reared in the stalls and was left at the start – possibly due to his jockey being slow to remove the hood placed over the horse’s head to coax him to enter the stalls. As such, put a line thru’ this formline and ignore it.
There are a couple of interesting meetings at Wincanton and Uttoxeter, but there is also a quality midweek meeting in Ireland at Punchestown. I cannot see anything of interest at Wincanton, tho’ at Uttoxeter the 2-mile h’cap chase at 4:40 looks a possibility. I thought FARLEIGH HOUSE was a shade unlucky not to come out on-top and win on Tuesday at Huntingdon, as he looked to have the race at his mercy after the final flight (it was a hurdle race). From that, we know the horse is fit and in good spirits and, at this stage of the season, that’s a big plus.
At Punchestown, there is a competitive Grade 3 novice chase over 2m2f at 3:45 and DE VALIRA has looked a lot more like realising the potential of his novice hurdle days as a chaser (had a long period of absence due to injury). He may be a 9yo but he has bags of class and looked like winning LTO approaching the last fence till caught for pace. The extra couple of furlongs today will be more to his favour and he is better than a 10/1 chance, as I’d have him at 4/1 for this. I’m not sure he’ll win as both Shinrock Paddy and Rathlin have similar qualities and they are younger, but I’m sure DE VALIRA will be placed in the 1st-3, so perhaps a “place-only” wager on the exchanges.
No need to push the boat out yet as there is a good meeting at Cheltenham tomorrow and Saturday and there will surely be some good wagering opportunities.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Yesterday’s selection – ARCHIE’S WISH – was a non-runner.
In hindsight, it was probably another bullet missed as I very much doubt that he’d have been able to win the race yesterday as Charlie Longsdon continues to keep his stable runners in top-form and his entry in the race – Wide Receiver – won the race very easily.
My other “tentative” selection was TRES CORONAS, but he got no run at all as he reared in the stalls and was left at the start – possibly due to his jockey being slow to remove the hood placed over the horse’s head to coax him to enter the stalls. As such, put a line thru’ this formline and ignore it.
There are a couple of interesting meetings at Wincanton and Uttoxeter, but there is also a quality midweek meeting in Ireland at Punchestown. I cannot see anything of interest at Wincanton, tho’ at Uttoxeter the 2-mile h’cap chase at 4:40 looks a possibility. I thought FARLEIGH HOUSE was a shade unlucky not to come out on-top and win on Tuesday at Huntingdon, as he looked to have the race at his mercy after the final flight (it was a hurdle race). From that, we know the horse is fit and in good spirits and, at this stage of the season, that’s a big plus.
At Punchestown, there is a competitive Grade 3 novice chase over 2m2f at 3:45 and DE VALIRA has looked a lot more like realising the potential of his novice hurdle days as a chaser (had a long period of absence due to injury). He may be a 9yo but he has bags of class and looked like winning LTO approaching the last fence till caught for pace. The extra couple of furlongs today will be more to his favour and he is better than a 10/1 chance, as I’d have him at 4/1 for this. I’m not sure he’ll win as both Shinrock Paddy and Rathlin have similar qualities and they are younger, but I’m sure DE VALIRA will be placed in the 1st-3, so perhaps a “place-only” wager on the exchanges.
No need to push the boat out yet as there is a good meeting at Cheltenham tomorrow and Saturday and there will surely be some good wagering opportunities.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 6 May 2011
Diamond in the Dee
Another busy day of racing, with Flat race meetings at Chester, Nottingham and Lingfield in the afternoon, and at Ascot, Ripon, and Hamilton in the evening. There is also an evening jumps race meeting at Aintree plus another day at Punchestown in Ireland.
From my Horse Alert list, at Chester there is Pintura (1:45), Glens Diamond (2:20), and Mr Macattack (4:40). I feel Pintura is better with some “give” in the ground, and as he also likes to be held up and come with a run he’ll need luck on his side in this race of 16 starters, even with a decent draw (stall 5). Current odds of 9/2 look skinny to me, and I’m not interested.
However, GLEN’S DIAMOND impressed me a lot when winning LTO, when displaying an ability to quicken off a fast pace. He looks like a decent 3yo in the making, and should prove to be a lot better than his current OR98 rating. The going (good-to-firm) and trip will suit him, whereas the fav Maqaraat has it all to prove. With The Paddyman and Tinkertown exposed (and not good enough) and Laajooj not looking good enough, GLEN’S DIAMOND looks a solid wager. Last night when I wrote this column, odds of 3/1 were available with a couple of bookmakers (Paddy Power & Stan James), but this morning the best available is 11/4.
In my opinion, given the form he’s shown on the track LTO, and that he’s shown that a performance of 110+ is within his grasp, GLEN’S DIAMOND should be the fav for this race, and I reckon he should be 7/4 with Maqaraat at 100/30.
As for Mr Macattack in the 4:40, he’s not been suited by Chester in two previous visits, so he’s one for another day, especially if it’s a straight 7-furlongs (eg Leicester).
At Nottingham, my Horse Alert List has Misrepresent (3:40), and Frontline Phantom (4:15). Misrepresent is entered for the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot next month, and she ran-on tremendously well in her racecourse debut having started-off very “green”. If connections are serious about her ability at home to warrant a Group 1 entry, then this maiden should be a walk in the park. FRONTLINE PHANTOM should be well-up to winning off OR66 given he won (effectively) off OR70 LTO (was running from 4lb out of the handicap). However, the odds will be very small indeed.
At Ascot, from my Horse Alert List runs BUZZ LAW (5:20), which is another horse from the stable of Mrs K Burke who is also responsible for FRONTLINE PHANTOM. This race looks a very competitive handicap and will be the focus analysis post-race.
Selection:
Chester 2:20, GLEN’S DIAMOND, 2pts win @ 11/4 (Paddy Power, William Hill & Bet365, all best odds guaranteed)
Total Stake = 2pts
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
From my Horse Alert list, at Chester there is Pintura (1:45), Glens Diamond (2:20), and Mr Macattack (4:40). I feel Pintura is better with some “give” in the ground, and as he also likes to be held up and come with a run he’ll need luck on his side in this race of 16 starters, even with a decent draw (stall 5). Current odds of 9/2 look skinny to me, and I’m not interested.
However, GLEN’S DIAMOND impressed me a lot when winning LTO, when displaying an ability to quicken off a fast pace. He looks like a decent 3yo in the making, and should prove to be a lot better than his current OR98 rating. The going (good-to-firm) and trip will suit him, whereas the fav Maqaraat has it all to prove. With The Paddyman and Tinkertown exposed (and not good enough) and Laajooj not looking good enough, GLEN’S DIAMOND looks a solid wager. Last night when I wrote this column, odds of 3/1 were available with a couple of bookmakers (Paddy Power & Stan James), but this morning the best available is 11/4.
In my opinion, given the form he’s shown on the track LTO, and that he’s shown that a performance of 110+ is within his grasp, GLEN’S DIAMOND should be the fav for this race, and I reckon he should be 7/4 with Maqaraat at 100/30.
As for Mr Macattack in the 4:40, he’s not been suited by Chester in two previous visits, so he’s one for another day, especially if it’s a straight 7-furlongs (eg Leicester).
At Nottingham, my Horse Alert List has Misrepresent (3:40), and Frontline Phantom (4:15). Misrepresent is entered for the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot next month, and she ran-on tremendously well in her racecourse debut having started-off very “green”. If connections are serious about her ability at home to warrant a Group 1 entry, then this maiden should be a walk in the park. FRONTLINE PHANTOM should be well-up to winning off OR66 given he won (effectively) off OR70 LTO (was running from 4lb out of the handicap). However, the odds will be very small indeed.
At Ascot, from my Horse Alert List runs BUZZ LAW (5:20), which is another horse from the stable of Mrs K Burke who is also responsible for FRONTLINE PHANTOM. This race looks a very competitive handicap and will be the focus analysis post-race.
Selection:
Chester 2:20, GLEN’S DIAMOND, 2pts win @ 11/4 (Paddy Power, William Hill & Bet365, all best odds guaranteed)
Total Stake = 2pts
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Thursday, 5 May 2011
Trainers to note on the Flat (turf) this summer
No selections today, despite the huge amount of racing going on. As I advised yesterday, I am being patient and awaiting a wagering opportunity to recoup current losses (approx 7pts) and bring the blog back into a profit situation.
In response to a request, I’ve taken a look the trainers on the Flat (turf) to explore whether it is worth following any in particular this summer. My personal thoughts generally are that trainers (like all humans) are creatures of habit. As such, they have their favourite tracks, and profitable periods occur during the season when their methods are working to an optimum. One angle that I have used for a long period (since 2002) is to pay attention to trainers in form. From the trainer statistics issued daily on Sporting Life’s website, I prepare a list of trainers who have achieved at least a 40% strikerate “win & place” with all runners in the previous 14-days – the only proviso being that the trainer should have won at least 3 races in that period. This (at the height of summer) will produce a daily list of 15 to 20 trainers who are “in form”. From that list, I pay particular attention to trainers who have just one runner from their stable on that day, or have sent a horse over 150 miles for a race (while sending others to a closer track), or have a high strikerate of winners at a track (ie. 20% plus). As such, this is a constantly moving list of trainers who go in and out of form. I use this to vary the amount that I stake on a wager, so if an in-form trainer has a single runner at a track over 150 miles from his stable and the trainer has a high strikerate at that track, then that horse will have my maximum wager on it.
Individual trainers that I follow include:
John GOSDEN: 2010 stats 74 wins from 384 runners (19%)
Gosden regularly hits his peak form in the months of July, August and September.
2007 win-to-runs: July, 9 – 37; Aug, 11 – 67; Sept, 11 – 54
2008 WTR: July, 13 – 73; Aug, 14 – 57; Sept, 17 – 64
2009 WTR: July, 11 – 64; Aug, 9 – 55; Sept, 6 – 50
2010 WTR: July, 7 – 47; Aug, 24 -70; Sept, 22 – 100
In the past 4 seasons in those months, Gosden has averaged 20.90% winners-to-runners (154 from 738) and even in 2009 which was comparatively poor, 15.4% of his runners won. His best month is August (56 from 268, 23.3%). Trips North, up the A1, should be noted; Thirsk (2 from 6), Pontefract (5 from 19), Newcastle (5 from 19), Doncaster (20 from 96), and Beverley (2 from 5) show that. Pay attention to his 4yo+ handicappers (20 from 107, £52.28 profit to a £1).
One of my favourite trainers was Mick JARVIS, but he’s now retired and the license has been taken over by his assistant Roger Varian, and we’ll have to see how his methods affect the strikerate at that stable this season.
Luca CUMANI, is another favourite of mine. He is not as consistent as Gosden but in the period June to September (inclusive), but when he hits form in this period then you have to follow his runners. For the past 3 seasons, June has been very profitable (30 from 134, 22.4%), and Cumani has managed to keep his horses going into September (44 from 197, 22.3%) for the past 4 seasons. Again, Cumani has no problem making a trip with his horses and when he visits Folkestone (10 from 31), Doncaster (13 from 59), Haydock (11 from 48) and Leicester (13 from 53). While he has a solid 20% strikerate with his handicappers, his ability in this sphere is well known and following him blind is not profitable.
Jeremy NOSEDA is a trainer who I’ve come to pay attention to, especially when he send out solitary runners. If he goes to the races with just a single runner, take note. On the face of it, his across the board losses suggest that he is not a trainer to follow, but his strikerate with 3yo’s in handicaps is a remarkable 21% (35 wins from 167 runners, past 4 seasons) and I am paying close attention to these this season. The summer months of June, July, August and September for the past 4 seasons have seen Noseda have tremendous success with all his 3yo’s; from 272 runners he’s had 68 winners (25.0%) and in some months he’s had over 30% wins to runs.
I’ll come back to this again over the next week and add to the list of trainers to take note of.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
In response to a request, I’ve taken a look the trainers on the Flat (turf) to explore whether it is worth following any in particular this summer. My personal thoughts generally are that trainers (like all humans) are creatures of habit. As such, they have their favourite tracks, and profitable periods occur during the season when their methods are working to an optimum. One angle that I have used for a long period (since 2002) is to pay attention to trainers in form. From the trainer statistics issued daily on Sporting Life’s website, I prepare a list of trainers who have achieved at least a 40% strikerate “win & place” with all runners in the previous 14-days – the only proviso being that the trainer should have won at least 3 races in that period. This (at the height of summer) will produce a daily list of 15 to 20 trainers who are “in form”. From that list, I pay particular attention to trainers who have just one runner from their stable on that day, or have sent a horse over 150 miles for a race (while sending others to a closer track), or have a high strikerate of winners at a track (ie. 20% plus). As such, this is a constantly moving list of trainers who go in and out of form. I use this to vary the amount that I stake on a wager, so if an in-form trainer has a single runner at a track over 150 miles from his stable and the trainer has a high strikerate at that track, then that horse will have my maximum wager on it.
Individual trainers that I follow include:
John GOSDEN: 2010 stats 74 wins from 384 runners (19%)
Gosden regularly hits his peak form in the months of July, August and September.
2007 win-to-runs: July, 9 – 37; Aug, 11 – 67; Sept, 11 – 54
2008 WTR: July, 13 – 73; Aug, 14 – 57; Sept, 17 – 64
2009 WTR: July, 11 – 64; Aug, 9 – 55; Sept, 6 – 50
2010 WTR: July, 7 – 47; Aug, 24 -70; Sept, 22 – 100
In the past 4 seasons in those months, Gosden has averaged 20.90% winners-to-runners (154 from 738) and even in 2009 which was comparatively poor, 15.4% of his runners won. His best month is August (56 from 268, 23.3%). Trips North, up the A1, should be noted; Thirsk (2 from 6), Pontefract (5 from 19), Newcastle (5 from 19), Doncaster (20 from 96), and Beverley (2 from 5) show that. Pay attention to his 4yo+ handicappers (20 from 107, £52.28 profit to a £1).
One of my favourite trainers was Mick JARVIS, but he’s now retired and the license has been taken over by his assistant Roger Varian, and we’ll have to see how his methods affect the strikerate at that stable this season.
Luca CUMANI, is another favourite of mine. He is not as consistent as Gosden but in the period June to September (inclusive), but when he hits form in this period then you have to follow his runners. For the past 3 seasons, June has been very profitable (30 from 134, 22.4%), and Cumani has managed to keep his horses going into September (44 from 197, 22.3%) for the past 4 seasons. Again, Cumani has no problem making a trip with his horses and when he visits Folkestone (10 from 31), Doncaster (13 from 59), Haydock (11 from 48) and Leicester (13 from 53). While he has a solid 20% strikerate with his handicappers, his ability in this sphere is well known and following him blind is not profitable.
Jeremy NOSEDA is a trainer who I’ve come to pay attention to, especially when he send out solitary runners. If he goes to the races with just a single runner, take note. On the face of it, his across the board losses suggest that he is not a trainer to follow, but his strikerate with 3yo’s in handicaps is a remarkable 21% (35 wins from 167 runners, past 4 seasons) and I am paying close attention to these this season. The summer months of June, July, August and September for the past 4 seasons have seen Noseda have tremendous success with all his 3yo’s; from 272 runners he’s had 68 winners (25.0%) and in some months he’s had over 30% wins to runs.
I’ll come back to this again over the next week and add to the list of trainers to take note of.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Tuesday, 3 May 2011
SIZING EUROPE to confirm superiority
There are a few Flat Racing meetings at Bath, Catterick, and Newcastle; and a couple of “jump” meetings at Exeter and Fakenham. Nothing of interest at Bath, ditto at Catterick. I was hoping Newcastle might provide an opportunity, but no; by far the best racing of the day comes from Punchestown in Ireland – and it’s over the jumps.
Yesterday’s blog posting was a bit late in the day, as I travelled up from the South-East to Liverpool during the day to visit family for the week. I should be at Aintree this Friday evening – so if you’re going, give me a shout on twitter.
There are 2 great races at Punchestown; the Champion Novice Chase over 3m1f and the Champion Chase over 2 mile. In the novice chase, the race hangs on the jumping ability of Quito De La Roque. I was on him LTO and he provided the blog with a great winning wager at Aintree, but this time I’m tempted to consider another – THEGREATJOHNBROWNE. When they last met, there was only a couple of lengths between them and that day it was clear that the stamina of THEGREATJOHNBROWNE waned in the heavy going. He’s been rested since then, whereas all the others have had busy campaigns, and this “good” going could be the making of him. Even so, he still has to prove himself over this trip and on the going, but the 11/2 looks tempting and if longer odds become available then I'll take advantage.
It is hard to see any of the opposition lowering the colours of SIZING EUROPE in the Champion Chase. It will require a herculean effort, or a huge dose of bad luck affecting the favourite. Based on the festival result, SIZING EUROPE should be odds-on for this, I’d say 4/5 with Big Zeb at 11/4. As such, odds of 2/1 available this morning look very generous indeed. The only doubt is that last season after winning the Arkle, SIZING EUROPE could only manage 3rd in this race behind Golden Silver.
Yesterday, I read that Timeform have rated FRANKEL at 142 behind only Sea Bird II (144), Brigadier Gerard (143) and Tudor Minstrel (143). For me, ratings are only half the story (maybe less than that) and it has to be remembered that the most recent of those 3 horses, Brigadier Gerard, won Group 1 races at a mile, 10-furlongs and 12-furlongs and on all sorts of going. As such, I feel FRANKEL has a bit to prove to be compared with those greats of old just yet. He needs another Group 1 win under his belt, at the very least.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Yesterday’s blog posting was a bit late in the day, as I travelled up from the South-East to Liverpool during the day to visit family for the week. I should be at Aintree this Friday evening – so if you’re going, give me a shout on twitter.
There are 2 great races at Punchestown; the Champion Novice Chase over 3m1f and the Champion Chase over 2 mile. In the novice chase, the race hangs on the jumping ability of Quito De La Roque. I was on him LTO and he provided the blog with a great winning wager at Aintree, but this time I’m tempted to consider another – THEGREATJOHNBROWNE. When they last met, there was only a couple of lengths between them and that day it was clear that the stamina of THEGREATJOHNBROWNE waned in the heavy going. He’s been rested since then, whereas all the others have had busy campaigns, and this “good” going could be the making of him. Even so, he still has to prove himself over this trip and on the going, but the 11/2 looks tempting and if longer odds become available then I'll take advantage.
It is hard to see any of the opposition lowering the colours of SIZING EUROPE in the Champion Chase. It will require a herculean effort, or a huge dose of bad luck affecting the favourite. Based on the festival result, SIZING EUROPE should be odds-on for this, I’d say 4/5 with Big Zeb at 11/4. As such, odds of 2/1 available this morning look very generous indeed. The only doubt is that last season after winning the Arkle, SIZING EUROPE could only manage 3rd in this race behind Golden Silver.
Yesterday, I read that Timeform have rated FRANKEL at 142 behind only Sea Bird II (144), Brigadier Gerard (143) and Tudor Minstrel (143). For me, ratings are only half the story (maybe less than that) and it has to be remembered that the most recent of those 3 horses, Brigadier Gerard, won Group 1 races at a mile, 10-furlongs and 12-furlongs and on all sorts of going. As such, I feel FRANKEL has a bit to prove to be compared with those greats of old just yet. He needs another Group 1 win under his belt, at the very least.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)