Boxing Day spectacular

The 411th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

What a day we have in store today. Perhaps the most intriguing days racing we’ve had for many a day with reputations to be earned, restored and confirmed.
We have a huge amount of racing with meetings up and down the country so it won’t be possible to focus on it all.
Kempton hosts the day’s feature meeting and what a cracker of a day. The King George VI Chase sees the return of the battle for supremacy of Long Run and Kauto Star. Defending champion Long Run should be the fav for the race but odds of 11/8 are too short for me. I reckon that Long Run rates 170 (not OR182, and certainly not RPR187) and that puts him within striking distance of Diamond Harry if he’s in the form that he won the 2010 Hennessey Gold Cup. Both horses should come on for their run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock won by Kauto Star. As for Kauto, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will maintain the form of his Betfair Chase win but he may need to improve on that run to win today; the reason why is that this renewal looks one of the best we’ve seen in recent years. Captain Chris could well be a 170+ chaser in time, but he’s had an interrupted preparation and as such it is going to be a superlative performance for him to win. I really cannot see Master Minded staying this trip as the pace will be hot from the off with Golan Way almost certainly taking-on Kauto Star for the lead. He’s been called a few names, but Somersby is consistent and he’s also something to prove on his latest run. If he recaptures his best form then he could still be there in with a chance at the 2nd-last. I would make Long Run the 5/2 fav with Kauto Star at 9/2 and DIAMOND HARRY at 6/1 and that makes him the eachway value at 20/1 (Ladbrokes).
On the lead-up to the King George, we have a couple of novice chases which should see GRANDS CRUS winning the Feltham at 2:00, and before that the novice handicap looks very competitive tho’ I do like the chance of BLESS THE WINGS (9/1 with Stan James). Earlier this year, BINOCULAR won the previous Christmas Hurdle and he should do so again, unless Nicholl’s Rock On Ruby is the real-deal. I’d have BINOCULAR at 5/4 for this as he should run 165+ today and that should be good enough.
It’s the last race on the Kempton card that should provide me with a wager, and I’ve been waiting for PANTXOA to step up in trip from 2-mile and this 2m5f should prove his best. He is 9/1 for this with William Hill, quarter-odds to 4-places.
Wetherby has as its feature the Rowland Meyrick Chase at 1:45 and this race is as good as any handicap you’ll see. The fav Always Right will be taken on up front by Midnight Chase and that could be their undoing. Both are exceptional chasers and Always Right could end up the equal of Midnight Chase this season which suggests he’s well-in today. Knockara Beau also looks to be well-handicapped off OR143, but I feel he wants extreme trips of 3m4f+ to show his best. As such, I’m sticking with my Hennessey selection SARANDO who I fell will appreciate today’s easier “soft” going. He’s at 8/1 which is fair, but I’d hope for a little more perhaps 10/1. One that could shake them all up if he continues his improvement is HELPSTON who runs from 7lb out of the handicap and is 20/1, but he’s never looked his best on soft going.
On day’s like this it pays to pick and choose your targets as there will be plenty of value out there and you cannot possibly consider all the racing. The top races will be well-covered by the market, so look for some of the smaller races at the other meetings. Also pay attention to non-runners, as what may be a good price in the morning may not be by race-time; and vice versa. You may think your selection has a fair chance but if the danger is a non-runner suddenly yours is well-in. I was looking at Wincanton’s 1:40 and DIEREADH RE looked huge at 3/1 in the morning papers, but a couple of non-runners means the price has collapsed to 13/8. That’s no good to me, but if you’re having a multiple bet to small stakes for fun, then this is a decent addition. Another is WIDE RECIEVER at Market Rasen in the 1:35.
At Wincanton, SHAKING HANDS runs in the class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 renewing rivalry with Drybrook Bedouin on 2lb better terms. Both will enjoy this trip, tho’ it will suit SHAKING HANDS better, and he can win at useful odds of 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed).
Kim Bailey has won the handicap chase at Huntingdon (12:45) 3 times in recent years, and he’s entered BISHOPHILL JACK a 5yo who won his first chase LTO. That wasn’t great form, but this isn’t that competitive a race, and tho’ odds of 5/2 are skinny he should do the biz.
I’m going to keep looking at today’s racing as there will be plenty of fluctuation in the markets and opportunities will arise. If I spot any, then I will try and post a comment to this blog, but more likely I will advise of the fact on twitter via @wayward_lad.

Selections:
Kempton 3:40, PANTXOA, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wetherby 1:45, SARANDO, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 2:50, SHAKING HANDS, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)

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All comments are welcome.

If you want value, this is where to come

The 385th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

We start the week on a high after a great winner on Saturday from the only selection, with I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES romping home at 8/1. Unfortunately, no donations were received which was disappointing as (according to Statcounter) the blog had 111 unique visitors on Saturday, of which 52 were returning visitors.
With 54 visitors returning to this blog more than 6 times in the past week, and another 46 who have returned between 1 and 5 times, I am sure those that do return time and time again do so because they get some value from the blog.
I have updated my stats page and, since 1st November 2010, I have advised 187 wagers on this blog, and they have returned a total profit of 28.5525pts from 211pts staked; that's a Return on Investment of 13.53%.
If you visit the well-established site Tip Exchange (see adjacent link) which has been operating since 2004; from over 3700 registered “tipsters” only 17 (yes, just seventeen) of those who “back” horses (not layers) and who have placed more than 50 selections with their last selection being in the past 30-days, have a better ROI than 13.53%. Adjust the filter to more than 100 selections (I have advised 187 on this blog) and only 8 registered tipsters beat my ROI, and they ALL charge between £25 to £60 a month.

There is an interesting blog written by Steeplechasing (http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com) which is well worth a visit. It is written by Joe McNally and he’s written a page on possible value for the Gold Cup next March. I won’t steal his thunder, but it will come as no surprise to regular readers of this blog that I am pretty much in agreement with him as to where the next Gold Cup winner is coming from. Long Run should improve a few pounds with better jumping and so he is clearly the best from this side of the Irish Sea, but believe me when I say “the Irish are coming!”

There are 3 meetings today, so plenty to choose from. There are a lot of small fields which could be due to it being a Monday.
I cannot see a worthwhile wager at Ffos Las.
At Kempton, the 1st-4 races are headed by short-priced fav’s and they are not my cup’o’tea as I can’t see anything to oppose them with. An old friend in PICKAMUS runs in the 3:10 and he has going and trip in his favour, and he’s even won going right-handed. Seeing-as he does not stay a yard more than 2m5f it seems odd that his only chase race at a suitable trip last season was in a Grade 3 H’cap Chase in which he was almost certainly outclassed (he fell mid-race). It was unfortunate that he ran over 22f LTO off his last winning mark of OR130 as, if he’d stayed that trip, he would’ve won. Henry Daly has managed to get Barry Geraghty in the saddle, but I feel that won’t be enough to beat the fav MIDNIGHT APPEAL. This full-bro’ to My Petra is going the right way and looks leniently treated on OR127 considering he’s won 4 of his 5 chases and LTO met a decent rival in Roudoudou Ville. He was 2nd that day in a fast time at Sandown, and at 9/4 this proven jumper looks the value in the race. Like his other full bro’ Lake Legend, MIDNIGHT APPEAL needs a bit of rousting along and stays 2m4f+. This is Alan King’s only runner today and he’s worth a wager tho’, given his style of running, it could be worth having some money on in-running at perhaps 5/1 (6.00) as I reckon he may well trade a lot higher than his current odds of 3.25 – it’s a thought.
I cannot see anything at Ludlow either, so all-in-all for all the racing on offer, it is a disappointing looking day.

Selection:
Kempton 3:10, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win at 9/4 (Victor Chandler, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.