Frustrating day

Another frustrating day for followers of the blog. There were 3 horse alerts runners and they were all placed in their respective races; BALDER SUCCES winning @ 8/15; THE POTTING SHED coming in 2^nd @ 5/2 and BALLYWATT coming in 3^rd @ 5/1.

In the race contested by The Potting Shed and Ballywatt, I was right to oppose the race-fav Forest Walker as he couldn't get involved and finished 4^th. It can be misleading to follow novice chase form as sometimes the ability of horses in these races is mis-matched and what are ordinary winning performances are made to look something special when the opposition is weak. As such, when judging early season novice chase form, I pay a lot more attention to the clock and speed-ratings, as well as the race-readers' comments and (finally) my own opinion based on 45 years of watching jump racing on tv. As such, I'd have been happy to "lay" Forest Walker who started with an SP of 15/8, but laying is not the intention of this blog.

I did think The Potting Shed would take advantage of the over-rated race-fav, but it was not to be as Rockchasebullett was able to record his 1^st win under rules (this was his 2^nd chase run) on this better ground than he had on his chase debut. As he's only a 5yo, and he was able to make all in winning this, he's going onto the alert list. I'll leave The Potting Shed on for his next run as he was conceding the winner 13lbs, but I'm removing the 3^rd placed Ballywatt. This horse (Ballywatt) has now run 12 races under rules and 12 point-to-points and is yet to win a race. He is consistent in that he flatters to deceive, but he has not "zip" in his performance. He probably will win a race, but only when stepped-up in trip to 3-mile and on heavy ground where he is left as the last horse standing.

AP McCoy was able to edge closer to the 4000 winner mark as he jocked-off the conditional rider James Huxham to take the ride on Minella For Steak and his win on that horse takes onto 3999. He has a couple of rides today at Towcester and probably the best chance he has is on Mountain Tunes in the 3:10. McCoy has a ride earlier in the afternoon on Church Field in the 2:10 and tho' this horse is also fancied he current odds do not (in my opinion) represent his chance. There is one from my alert list in this race, VALID POINT. He's not won for 2 years but he is a fairly decent hurdler who is better than his OR117 rating at his best, he's probably in the 125-130 region. There are a number of positive points: the horse loves Towcester having won on 3 of his 4 visits here over todays 21f trip and over 3-mile – so he won't be lacking stamina. He's also trainer Jim Old's only runner today and Jim Old has a great strike rate at Towcester. What I also like is that when Old puts-up Jason Maguire in the saddle then he usually means business. Unfortunately, the early 10/1 has gone and current best odds of 7/1 are a bit too skinny. He is possibly still a place-only option, as I feel place-only odds on the exchanges do not represent chances of being placed. I've written about this before, so you may want to do a search of the blog to read about my opinions on place-only wagers.

At 10/1, I'd have had a small each-way wager on Valid Point but, at the current odds, I can't.

Before I write-off, it's my birthday tomorrow (geez… 54 years old), so I may write a blog or I may give it a miss and be back on Saturday when I'm planning on spending the afternoon watching the racing on the tv – bliss!

No fireworks for McCoy

It was an interesting day of racing yesterday at Exeter, not least because despite the media attention AP McCoy was unable to edge any closer to the 4000 winner mark from his 3 rides there. He has a couple of rides today but none look capable of winning.

Blog favourite CUE CARD was unable to repeat last season's win in the Haldon Gold Cup but, even so, ran a great race if you consider he was conceding the winner Somersby 17lb. I did write yesterday that Somersby was the favorite's biggest danger and the old boy ran right up to his current rating og OR155, which is about 7lb short of his best Whether he'll come on for the run is debateable, but before yesterday's race Henrietta Knight (who is now Mick Channon's assistant trainer) suggested he would. That would make him interesting if going for the Amlin Chase at Ascot.

My personal Alert List runner yesterday, RYDALIS, very nearly won. Apologies to the horse yesterday as I called the mare "him". It seems Venetia Williams horses can now be followed as she had the race won at the final fence, but faded on the run-in and she'd little left to give once passed by the eventual winner. We know she improves for racing so, as long as the handicapper does not go overboard – and there is no reason he should – she will look very decent NTO. The main thing tho' was we missed-out on backing a loser. Close isn't enough in this game and I'm happier not betting on losers. Personally, as I wrote yesterday, I had a small back-to-lay wager and was on at 10.50 and laid-off mid-race at 4.20. Considering there was plenty of money traded at under 1.40 (she actually touched 1.08 on the run-in) there was opportunity a-plenty. The winner - Gas Line Boy – has had very little racing and this was only his 2^nd chase. He could be a real blot on the handicap if he continues his rapid improvement.

There are a couple of meetings today but, at the time of writing, nothing looks interesting. I have a couple of alert list runners at Warwick: BALLYWATT and The POTTING SHED in the 1:20, and BALDER SUCCES in the 2:20.

I'm not sure about Ballywatt; the horse does not seem to have any gears at the business end of the race and I'm sure he'd prefer some give in the ground anyway. I think he'd prefer a step up to 3-mile. My other alert list horse in the same race, THE POTTING SHED looks a better proposition. Currently available at 7/2 this very lightly raced 6yo has plenty of scope to improve and should rate above OR130 this season. The race fav Forest Walker is also lightly raced, but I reckon he wants 3-mile and this shorter trip of 2m4f & 110 yards should play into the hands of THE POTTING SHED.

I cannot see BALDER SUCCES being beaten this afternoon, but neither can the bookies and he's well odds-on.

Selection:

Warwick 1:20, THE POTTING SHED, £10 win @ 7/2 (available generally, go BOG)

Bonfire celebrations for McCoy?

No wagers yesterday and it was a good idea to side-step the chase debut of Duke Of Monmouth. He'd been on my alert list most of last season when he was very consistent as a 3-mile hurdler but, as regards a chase career, he has some work to do.

The major news from yesterday was that AP McCoy moved to within 2 winners of the 4,000 mark and he could well reach that milestone today at Exeter – the course where he rode his first-ever winner way back in 1994. I'm expecting McCoy to take the opener at Exeter with FLEMENSON in the novice hurdle, tho' he'll be a skinny price. It may not go his way tho' as there is plenty of support for Champagne West.  Unfortunately, McCoy does not have a ride in the feature race, the Haldon Gold Cup.  Blog favourite, CUE CARD goes for a repeat of last season's win in this race. He's giving away 17lb and some to the 5 other rivals in this year's race, but CUE CARD should have enough class to dominate the race and win. There are plenty who are willing to oppose him tho' and the unbeaten chaser William's Wishes is the one carrying their money. I'm not so sure about this one being able to take on CUE CARD, and I'm more afraid of Somersby who always runs his best race when fresh. In receipt of 17lb, he looks the one to chase the fav home.

AP McCoy has another ride in the 3:50 with Well Hello There, but this looks a competitive handicap chase. There is one runner from my personal Alert List running today and it's in this race – RYDALIS. His form looked to tail off last season after a bright start having won the 1^st-2 of his 6 chases of his novice season. RYDALIS has won at Exeter before (over hurdles) and todays ground (good-to-soft, soft in places) will suit him. We know the stable is in form (3 winners on Saturday) and, in my opinion, RYDALIS is a potential OR125+ performer, which makes his mark today of OR115 very attractive. The only downside is that he's usually needed a run to get him race-fit, even last year when the Williams stable were flying in the autumn, RYDALIS needed a run. As such, I can't recommend a win wager and the odds of 6/1 do not represent value for an eachway wager either. He's a fairly good traveller, so there may be opportunity for exchange players to have a "back-to-lay" wager and try and nick a small profit by laying-off in-running.

Personally, I'd like to see AP McCoy riding Tarvini in the 4:20, as this 3-mile trip will really suit the horse who is a good staying hurdler. The ground is against him but, should there be a drying wind blowing and McCoy has managed to pick up a winner during the day, I can see AP jocking-off the lad and taking this ride to close the day.

No selections, but fingers crossed for AP McCoy.

Exciting times ahead

What a cracking weekend of jump racing and I happened to miss most of it being in Cornwall for the weekend. Don't think I was swanning about enjoying the sun there – it lashed it down with rain for most of the time and was blowing a hoolie with it!

I had a couple of small private wagers over the weekend, but no winners – just a couple of 2^nd's with HUMBIE @ 14/1 on Friday at Wetherby, and MERRY KING @ 8/1 on Saturday. I've had my eye on HUMBIE since he won at Carlisle in October 2011, and this close relative of Denman is a horse who could find a lot of improvement when tackling 3-miles. He's not had much racing for a 9yo, but has managed to finish in the places on 11 of his 17 starts to date, winning 5 times. As for MERRY KING, I thought he'd slipped under the radar on Saturday morning and I half-expected him to start the race as the fav given his progressive profile. What I hadn't counted on was Venetia Williams sending out a hat-trick of winners from her 4 runners at Ascot on Saturday, including picking-up the 2 major chase handicaps with Houblon Des Obeaux defeating Merry King, and Drumshambo taking the 17-furlong handicap earlier on the card. It looks like Venetia has her stable firing as well as it did this time last season. Both the Williams horses were on my alert list carried over from last season, but I overlooked both on the basis that I wasn't confident that Venetia had her stable at peak fitness. Drumshambo won 4 of his 6 starts between October and the end of the year in 2012 and should be followed in the coming weeks.

I missed a trick with Houblon Des Obeaux. I was at Ascot when he ran 2^nd to Rocky Creek in February, after which he ran a couple of poor races including one at the Cheltenham Festival. I also thought he'd be better on soft-heavy ground but I forgot he'd run a cracker on good ground at the Festival in 2012 (4^th in the Pertemps hurdle) and he also had winning form on good-to-soft. Add that he'd won his 1^st-couple of races of the 2012-13 season last autumn and (in hindsight) it wasn't difficult to see him running a big race on Saturday. I think Venetia Williams has another "Mon Mome" in this one.

I was also taken with the display by BLESS THE WINGS in this race as he was done for stamina in the final half-mile. A return to 20-21 furlongs NTO should see him in the winners enclosure.

There are a couple of meetings today at Kempton and Plumpton and, at the former meeting, I can see DUKE OF MONMOUTH running a big race if he's learnt to jump a fence well enough. This is his chase debut and, as a front-running hurdler with stamina to burn, he looks a ready-made staying chaser. This 3-mile trip is right up his street and Kempton does suit a front-runner. This is his debut tho' so it is a watching brief only.