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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 6 November 2013

No fireworks for McCoy

It was an interesting day of racing yesterday at Exeter, not least because despite the media attention AP McCoy was unable to edge any closer to the 4000 winner mark from his 3 rides there. He has a couple of rides today but none look capable of winning.
Blog favourite CUE CARD was unable to repeat last season's win in the Haldon Gold Cup but, even so, ran a great race if you consider he was conceding the winner Somersby 17lb. I did write yesterday that Somersby was the favorite's biggest danger and the old boy ran right up to his current rating og OR155, which is about 7lb short of his best Whether he'll come on for the run is debateable, but before yesterday's race Henrietta Knight (who is now Mick Channon's assistant trainer) suggested he would. That would make him interesting if going for the Amlin Chase at Ascot.
My personal Alert List runner yesterday, RYDALIS, very nearly won. Apologies to the horse yesterday as I called the mare "him". It seems Venetia Williams horses can now be followed as she had the race won at the final fence, but faded on the run-in and she'd little left to give once passed by the eventual winner. We know she improves for racing so, as long as the handicapper does not go overboard – and there is no reason he should – she will look very decent NTO. The main thing tho' was we missed-out on backing a loser. Close isn't enough in this game and I'm happier not betting on losers. Personally, as I wrote yesterday, I had a small back-to-lay wager and was on at 10.50 and laid-off mid-race at 4.20. Considering there was plenty of money traded at under 1.40 (she actually touched 1.08 on the run-in) there was opportunity a-plenty. The winner - Gas Line Boy – has had very little racing and this was only his 2nd chase. He could be a real blot on the handicap if he continues his rapid improvement.
There are a couple of meetings today but, at the time of writing, nothing looks interesting. I have a couple of alert list runners at Warwick: BALLYWATT and The POTTING SHED in the 1:20, and BALDER SUCCES in the 2:20.
I'm not sure about Ballywatt; the horse does not seem to have any gears at the business end of the race and I'm sure he'd prefer some give in the ground anyway. I think he'd prefer a step up to 3-mile. My other alert list horse in the same race, THE POTTING SHED looks a better proposition. Currently available at 7/2 this very lightly raced 6yo has plenty of scope to improve and should rate above OR130 this season. The race fav Forest Walker is also lightly raced, but I reckon he wants 3-mile and this shorter trip of 2m4f & 110 yards should play into the hands of THE POTTING SHED.
I cannot see BALDER SUCCES being beaten this afternoon, but neither can the bookies and he's well odds-on.
Warwick 1:20, THE POTTING SHED, £10 win @ 7/2 (available generally, go BOG)

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