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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday, 7 November 2013

Frustrating day

Another frustrating day for followers of the blog. There were 3 horse alerts runners and they were all placed in their respective races; BALDER SUCCES winning @ 8/15; THE POTTING SHED coming in 2nd @ 5/2 and BALLYWATT coming in 3rd @ 5/1.
In the race contested by The Potting Shed and Ballywatt, I was right to oppose the race-fav Forest Walker as he couldn't get involved and finished 4th. It can be misleading to follow novice chase form as sometimes the ability of horses in these races is mis-matched and what are ordinary winning performances are made to look something special when the opposition is weak. As such, when judging early season novice chase form, I pay a lot more attention to the clock and speed-ratings, as well as the race-readers' comments and (finally) my own opinion based on 45 years of watching jump racing on tv. As such, I'd have been happy to "lay" Forest Walker who started with an SP of 15/8, but laying is not the intention of this blog.
I did think The Potting Shed would take advantage of the over-rated race-fav, but it was not to be as Rockchasebullett was able to record his 1st win under rules (this was his 2nd chase run) on this better ground than he had on his chase debut. As he's only a 5yo, and he was able to make all in winning this, he's going onto the alert list. I'll leave The Potting Shed on for his next run as he was conceding the winner 13lbs, but I'm removing the 3rd placed Ballywatt. This horse (Ballywatt) has now run 12 races under rules and 12 point-to-points and is yet to win a race. He is consistent in that he flatters to deceive, but he has not "zip" in his performance. He probably will win a race, but only when stepped-up in trip to 3-mile and on heavy ground where he is left as the last horse standing.
AP McCoy was able to edge closer to the 4000 winner mark as he jocked-off the conditional rider James Huxham to take the ride on Minella For Steak and his win on that horse takes onto 3999. He has a couple of rides today at Towcester and probably the best chance he has is on Mountain Tunes in the 3:10. McCoy has a ride earlier in the afternoon on Church Field in the 2:10 and tho' this horse is also fancied he current odds do not (in my opinion) represent his chance. There is one from my alert list in this race, VALID POINT. He's not won for 2 years but he is a fairly decent hurdler who is better than his OR117 rating at his best, he's probably in the 125-130 region. There are a number of positive points: the horse loves Towcester having won on 3 of his 4 visits here over todays 21f trip and over 3-mile – so he won't be lacking stamina. He's also trainer Jim Old's only runner today and Jim Old has a great strike rate at Towcester. What I also like is that when Old puts-up Jason Maguire in the saddle then he usually means business. Unfortunately, the early 10/1 has gone and current best odds of 7/1 are a bit too skinny. He is possibly still a place-only option, as I feel place-only odds on the exchanges do not represent chances of being placed. I've written about this before, so you may want to do a search of the blog to read about my opinions on place-only wagers.
At 10/1, I'd have had a small each-way wager on Valid Point but, at the current odds, I can't.
Before I write-off, it's my birthday tomorrow (geez… 54 years old), so I may write a blog or I may give it a miss and be back on Saturday when I'm planning on spending the afternoon watching the racing on the tv – bliss!

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