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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Monday 4 November 2013

Exciting times ahead

What a cracking weekend of jump racing and I happened to miss most of it being in Cornwall for the weekend. Don't think I was swanning about enjoying the sun there – it lashed it down with rain for most of the time and was blowing a hoolie with it!
I had a couple of small private wagers over the weekend, but no winners – just a couple of 2nd's with HUMBIE @ 14/1 on Friday at Wetherby, and MERRY KING @ 8/1 on Saturday. I've had my eye on HUMBIE since he won at Carlisle in October 2011, and this close relative of Denman is a horse who could find a lot of improvement when tackling 3-miles. He's not had much racing for a 9yo, but has managed to finish in the places on 11 of his 17 starts to date, winning 5 times. As for MERRY KING, I thought he'd slipped under the radar on Saturday morning and I half-expected him to start the race as the fav given his progressive profile. What I hadn't counted on was Venetia Williams sending out a hat-trick of winners from her 4 runners at Ascot on Saturday, including picking-up the 2 major chase handicaps with Houblon Des Obeaux defeating Merry King, and Drumshambo taking the 17-furlong handicap earlier on the card. It looks like Venetia has her stable firing as well as it did this time last season. Both the Williams horses were on my alert list carried over from last season, but I overlooked both on the basis that I wasn't confident that Venetia had her stable at peak fitness. Drumshambo won 4 of his 6 starts between October and the end of the year in 2012 and should be followed in the coming weeks.
I missed a trick with Houblon Des Obeaux. I was at Ascot when he ran 2nd to Rocky Creek in February, after which he ran a couple of poor races including one at the Cheltenham Festival. I also thought he'd be better on soft-heavy ground but I forgot he'd run a cracker on good ground at the Festival in 2012 (4th in the Pertemps hurdle) and he also had winning form on good-to-soft. Add that he'd won his 1st-couple of races of the 2012-13 season last autumn and (in hindsight) it wasn't difficult to see him running a big race on Saturday. I think Venetia Williams has another "Mon Mome" in this one.
I was also taken with the display by BLESS THE WINGS in this race as he was done for stamina in the final half-mile. A return to 20-21 furlongs NTO should see him in the winners enclosure.
There are a couple of meetings today at Kempton and Plumpton and, at the former meeting, I can see DUKE OF MONMOUTH running a big race if he's learnt to jump a fence well enough. This is his chase debut and, as a front-running hurdler with stamina to burn, he looks a ready-made staying chaser. This 3-mile trip is right up his street and Kempton does suit a front-runner. This is his debut tho' so it is a watching brief only.

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