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Record of the blog selections

Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.

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Tuesday, 30 November 2010

November look back

Yesterday’s racing
Despite the efforts of the trainers in getting their horses to the course, jockeys on making the journey also, bookmakers on travelling there to make a market for the betting industry, and owners who very obligingly funded the whole operation – Folkestone was called off with the runners at the post for the 1st race.

The jump meeting at Hereford today has already been lost to the weather, and Wednesday’s meetings at Catterick and Ayr are also lost. There is a meeting at Plumpton planned for tomorrow tho’ the course is currently frozen and an inspection started at 8:00am this morning. There is snow at Leicester and Market Rasen, which puts their meetings on Thursday in doubt. Wincanton on Thursday at the moment seems hopeful of going ahead, and it is considered 80% raceable.

Today’s racing

There is AW flat racing at Lingfield and Southwell, but this blog is only concerned with jump racing until the result of the next Grand National is known next April; so I can’t provide advice on the AW racing today.

November blog results
The blog selections for the month of November were as follows:-
1st November: FREE WORLD, 2pts win, 2nd @ 3/1 - 2pts lost
2nd November: VAMIZI, 1pt win, 3nd @ 100/30 - 1pt lost
3rd November: JUSTABOUT, 1pt win, unplaced @ 9/2 – 1pt lost
4th November: GIFTED LEADER, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 6/1 – 0.10pts profit
10th November: BUFFALO BOB, ½pt eachway, 2nd @ 13/2 – 0.15pts profit
11th November: MIDNIGHT HAZE, 1pt win, WON @ 9/2 – 4.50pts profit
11th November: JUSTABOUT, 1pt win, WON @ 7/2 – 3.50pts profit
13th November: MAD MAX, 1pt eachway, 4th @ 9/1 – 1.25pts profit
13th November: FINGERONTHEPULSE, ½pt eachway, unplaced @ 22/1 – 1pt lost
16th November: PLEIN POUVIOR, 1pt win, unplaced @ 9/2 = 1pt lost
19th November: LE BURF, ½pt win, 3rd @ 6/1 – 0.50pts lost
20th November: IMPERIAL COMMANDER and ZAYNAR, 1pt win double = 1pt lost
24th November: DIAMOND FRONTIER, 1pt win @ 5/2 – 1pt lost
25th November: SOUND STAGE, 1pt eachway, 2nd @ 8/1 – 0.60pts profit
27th November: SILVER BY NATURE, ½pt eachway, unplaced @ 25/1 – 1pt lost
27th November: MINELLA THEATRE, 1pt eachway, unplaced @ 11/1 – 2pts lost

November Balance = lost 1.40pts from 19pts staked.


I’ve also noted the following winners during the month in the narrative which - if you were a bit more speculative - you may have been on; I’m A Legend @ 7/2; FLEMISH INVADER @ 5/2; GHIZAO @ 13/2; and EXTRA BOLD @ 7/2.

Ante-post Advice
I’ve also provided ante-post advice during the month, suggesting taking the odds of 14/1 on PEDDLERS CROSS prior to him winning the Fighting Fifth hurdle – he’s now best-priced @ 6/1 for the Champion Hurdle.

Other antepost advice provided during the month:
IMPERIAL COMMANDER, 2pts win @ 9/2 for the Gold Cup (on 22/11 and again on 28/11)
DENMAN, 1pt eachway @ 8/1 for the Gold Cup (on 28/11)
BURTON PORT ½pt eachway @ 20/1 for the Gold Cup (on 28/11)
GHIZAO 1pt eachway @ 12/1 for the Arkle (on 23/11)
GAUVAIN ½pt eachway @ 25/1 for the QM Champion Chase (on 15/11)

I also suggested on 23rd November not ignoring anything sent out by Nicky Henderson from then on until the end of next February. In the past 7 days, he’s sent out 23 runners and, as luck would have it, only had 3 winners. But he has had a few go close, and he is a man to keep on the right side of.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Monday, 29 November 2010

Last chance saloon at Folkestone

Today’s racing
After the “top-table” racing of the Hennessey meeting at Newbury, it’s back down-to-earth at Folkestone today for what may be the last jump meeting of the next few days. Hereford’s meeting on Tuesday has already gone, as has the Catterick meeting for Wednesday. The meeting at Ayr on Wednesday is in serious doubt as the course is currently frozen (there is an inspection planned at noon today). There is snow at Leicester and Market Rasen, which puts their meetings on Thursday in doubt – although Wincanton on Thursday at the moment seems hopeful of going ahead.

So then, just the Folkestone meeting today, but it does hold an interesting class 3 h’cap chase over 3m1f at 3:10. I am happy to oppose the fav Pacco, as he loved the soft going LTO and had very little to beat. He also loves Towcester (3 wins from 4 runs there) so with just about everything in his favour it was no wonder he ran-out a convincing winner. The quicker “good” going today may find him out tho’, as he has never run well when the going has been quicker than soft. Antonius Caesar (2nd-fav) ran his best race in ages LTO and given he last won off OR120, he is on a good mark of OR107 if he can recapture his old form. Ballyoliver (3rd-fav) is a chasing debutant from Venetia Williams stable. I always oppose her chasing debutants as she does not school her chasers at home prior to racing – they jump their 1st fence at the track! She employs a “sink or swim” attitude to chasers believing jumping is best learnt at the races rather than on the schooling ground. Which brings us to AMMUMITION, on a hat-trick and in the form of his life. I’m trying to find a chink in his form, but I can’t. Jonjo O’Neills Whataboutya won’t win off his h’cap mark of OR115. Reblis is an interesting runner, but his form suggests he’s best on soft or worse. DUNKELLY CASTLE looks capable of improving on what he’s shown to date, and he appreciates going right-handed. The form of his last race is working out well (couple of winners in Bobby Gee and Justabout, and Major Malarkey has run well since) and he looks the type to improve. His trainer, Roger Curtis, is having a bit of a quiet time lately (no wins in November), but he’s had a couple of chase winners at Folkestone in the past and this is his only runner today.

After a 3pts loss on Saturday, the blog is now on minus-1.40pts (from 19pts staked) during November.

Selection:
Folkestone 3:10 DUNKELLY CASTLE, ½pt eachway @ 14/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Sunday, 28 November 2010

Brave display from Denman

Sunday Supplement
What a tremendous Hennessey Gold Cup, and have we seen the emergence of a new order in the staying chasing ranks?
When they turned for home, with every fence jumped, the crowd roared on the defending champion Denman . Valiantly tho’ he tried, conceding 26lb to the likes of Diamond Harry and Burton Port was just too much. You have to remember that Nicky Henderson sent out Trabolgan to win the HGC with 11:12 after winning the RSA, and he was rated OR151. Burton Port ran 2nd in the RSA amd went into the HGC on OR153 – so, technically, a 2lb better horse than Trabolgan – yet carrying only 10st. Yesterday’s time was a fast one - 6m 27.81 – so, if you work on 4-lengths per second, Denman took about 3.50 secs longer and crossed the line in about 6m 31.30; or about 8.70 secs faster than when winning the race last year. The race was the only one to beat standard time in the entire 3-day meeting – this is rock solid form, and I would consider that Denman ran to a career best! Think about the time – it was 0.70secs above the course record on good-to-soft going! Denman recorded OR184 when winning the HGC last year, and I reckon he beat that yesterday and then ran to his absolute peak – and cracked. He could not get eventual winner DIAMOND HARRY off the bridle, and he reached his breaking point just after the 2nd-last fence. How do I rate the race?

If Denman bettered last year’s performance of OR184, by how much did he do it? I use The Tother One as the benchmark, and rate him at equalling his best of RPR163. That puts Denman on 190, and BURTON PORT and DIAMOND HARRY both on 179 (remember, Burton Port carried a 1lb over-weight with 10st 1lb). On that basis, Denman put up a better performance that when 2nd to Imperial Commander in the last Gold Cup. Perhaps he did (on paper), but races are not won by mathematics. Imperial Commander is about 6lb better than Denman, and on HGC form both Diamond Harry and Burton Port have about 11lb to find to beat Denman on level weights. On what we will see prior to the next Gold Cup, IMPERIAL COMMANDER @ 9/2 (William Hill) has to be taken, as does the 8/1 about Denman – this is cracking eachway value. From what we’ve seen when they’ve met at Cheltenham, Kauto Star does not like it being served up to him by Denman – it rattles his jumping rhythm. Given the fragility of Diamond Harry (trainer Nick Williams has already declared they won’t risk him again on the track before the Gold Cup), I reckon the 20/1 available on BURTON PORT for the Gold Cup looks cracking eachway value.

The pace of the Hennessey Gold Cup put the kybosh on several horses chances. Clearly, the going was too quick for SILVER BY NATURE and we should see a more improved performance on “soft” going or worse. The pace certainly did for WEIRD AL, and it looks like he’s not as good as was thought. What happened to PANDORAMA? After a couple of early errors, and being impeded by falling horses, he was adrift of the main group early-on and his jockey decided to pull him up. He has one more chance to redeem himself in my book.

The rest of the card was very impressive. PEDDLERS CROSS has put himself right into the Champion Hurdle picture in winning the Fighting Fifth, but I thought BINOCULAR ran very well considering that he went into the race very lightly prepared. I did advise in yesterday’s blog to take the 14/1 about the Champion Hurdle on PEDDLERS CROSS, and I hope you did as the value has now gone and he’s just best-priced at 6/1. BIG BUCKS winning the Long Distance hurdle was just a formality and he looks booked to win the World Hurdle at the Festival.

I was most disappointed with Minella Theatre in the 2m4f h’cap chase; he was under pressure from about a mile out and looked outclassed. Perhaps he’s better in smaller, less, competitive fields. As for Prince Du Beauchene (off the Alert List) he wants 3-mile, and this trip was too short for him.

All-in-all, the blog lost 3pts on Saturday which means that selections have now lost 1.40pts (from 19pts staked) during November. With most of racing cancelled due to the frost and snow, we may have to look to racing in December to recover the loss.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Saturday, 27 November 2010

Hennessey GC - history in the making?

Yesterday’s (Friday’s) Horseracing
I said earlier in the week that you cannot ignore anything Henderson sends out at this time of the year, and he sent out 5 to Newbury and was rewarded with 2 winners at odds of 13/2 and 13/8. He also had a 3rd at 12/1, meaning a healthy level stakes profit on the day.

The worst news was Noel Fehily breaking a wrist when his mount Rivaliste fell. It looks like Kauto Star will now be ridden on Boxing Day by AP McCoy – let’s hope the man rides his luck between now and then.

Today’s Horseracing
Only the one jump meeting at Newbury, but what a brilliant meeting it is!
The Fighting Fifth hurdle has been transferred from the snowbound Newcastle, to form part of an 8-race card including the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle and the days feature race, the Hennessey Gold Cup.

Let’s start with the feature race, and if Denman can win today with top-weight off OR182 then it will be a performance (in my opinion) equal to anything Arkle did in the 1960’s. Much as I’d love the horse to do it, I just cannot see it happening as I would be surprised if there is not a future Gold Cup winner in this field (other than Denman) amongst Neptune Collonges, Weird Al, Pandorama, Silver By Nature, Burton Port or Diamond Harry. And what about the likes of Taranis and Madison Du Berlais? WEIRD AL is on my Alert List (see adjacent pages). If the ground were soft I would not hesitate in recommending SILVER BY NATURE @ 25/1 as an eachway selection (but then his odds would be a lot shorter if the going were soft). Even so, this is a very talented horse and if he were with a fancy “southern” trainer then you’d be lucky to get odds over 10/1. He is an excellent eachway chance at the odds, and his trainer Lucinda Russell sent out a couple of winners on Friday at Musselburgh.

For the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, if PEDDLERS CROSS is to take the Champion Hurdle route this season, then he must be able to serve it up to reigning Champion hurdler Binocular. I think that PEDDLERS CROSS is potentially the most exciting prospect in jump racing, but I also think that the 2-mile trip at Newbury will find him out as he would ideally want a trip of 20f or more. If he wins this then the Champion Hurdle market will be turned on its head – so, perhaps the way to go is a punt on that instead, for which PEDDLERS CROSS is 14/1.

It is virtually impossible to consider BIG BUCKS being beaten in the Long Distance Hurdle; so on to the 2m4f h’cap chase at 3:40 – the final race on the card. The fav Working Title is fit from hurdling, and a talented hurdler he is too, but I cannot see him mixing it with these experienced chasers. There is one from my alert list in this - Prince De Beauchene, and he was very highly tried LTO. This is much more to his level and he may prove hard to beat. Another in the race I like is Minella Theatre who won LTO and, of the 4 to finish, 2 have run since and they’ve both won. I have a feeling that Prince De Beauchene would prefer 3-mile, and so the vote goes to MINELLA THEATRE. Very consistent as a hurdler, he’s suffered broken blood vessels as a chaser and, as he’s won 2 of the 3 chase’s he’s completed (was 4th to Weird Al over this trip in the other, and that’s cracking good form) he is very unexposed. The going will be perfect for him, and the runner-up LTO has run well off a mark 7lb higher suggesting the 10lb hike for the LTO win is reasonable.

Selections:
Newbury 3:05 SILVER BY NATURE, ½pt eachway @ 25/1 (various, 4th odds)
Newbury 3:40 MINELLA THEATRE, 1pt eachway @ 11/1 (various, 4th odds)
Total = 3pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad