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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 27 November 2010

Hennessey GC - history in the making?

Yesterday’s (Friday’s) Horseracing
I said earlier in the week that you cannot ignore anything Henderson sends out at this time of the year, and he sent out 5 to Newbury and was rewarded with 2 winners at odds of 13/2 and 13/8. He also had a 3rd at 12/1, meaning a healthy level stakes profit on the day.

The worst news was Noel Fehily breaking a wrist when his mount Rivaliste fell. It looks like Kauto Star will now be ridden on Boxing Day by AP McCoy – let’s hope the man rides his luck between now and then.

Today’s Horseracing
Only the one jump meeting at Newbury, but what a brilliant meeting it is!
The Fighting Fifth hurdle has been transferred from the snowbound Newcastle, to form part of an 8-race card including the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle and the days feature race, the Hennessey Gold Cup.

Let’s start with the feature race, and if Denman can win today with top-weight off OR182 then it will be a performance (in my opinion) equal to anything Arkle did in the 1960’s. Much as I’d love the horse to do it, I just cannot see it happening as I would be surprised if there is not a future Gold Cup winner in this field (other than Denman) amongst Neptune Collonges, Weird Al, Pandorama, Silver By Nature, Burton Port or Diamond Harry. And what about the likes of Taranis and Madison Du Berlais? WEIRD AL is on my Alert List (see adjacent pages). If the ground were soft I would not hesitate in recommending SILVER BY NATURE @ 25/1 as an eachway selection (but then his odds would be a lot shorter if the going were soft). Even so, this is a very talented horse and if he were with a fancy “southern” trainer then you’d be lucky to get odds over 10/1. He is an excellent eachway chance at the odds, and his trainer Lucinda Russell sent out a couple of winners on Friday at Musselburgh.

For the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, if PEDDLERS CROSS is to take the Champion Hurdle route this season, then he must be able to serve it up to reigning Champion hurdler Binocular. I think that PEDDLERS CROSS is potentially the most exciting prospect in jump racing, but I also think that the 2-mile trip at Newbury will find him out as he would ideally want a trip of 20f or more. If he wins this then the Champion Hurdle market will be turned on its head – so, perhaps the way to go is a punt on that instead, for which PEDDLERS CROSS is 14/1.

It is virtually impossible to consider BIG BUCKS being beaten in the Long Distance Hurdle; so on to the 2m4f h’cap chase at 3:40 – the final race on the card. The fav Working Title is fit from hurdling, and a talented hurdler he is too, but I cannot see him mixing it with these experienced chasers. There is one from my alert list in this - Prince De Beauchene, and he was very highly tried LTO. This is much more to his level and he may prove hard to beat. Another in the race I like is Minella Theatre who won LTO and, of the 4 to finish, 2 have run since and they’ve both won. I have a feeling that Prince De Beauchene would prefer 3-mile, and so the vote goes to MINELLA THEATRE. Very consistent as a hurdler, he’s suffered broken blood vessels as a chaser and, as he’s won 2 of the 3 chase’s he’s completed (was 4th to Weird Al over this trip in the other, and that’s cracking good form) he is very unexposed. The going will be perfect for him, and the runner-up LTO has run well off a mark 7lb higher suggesting the 10lb hike for the LTO win is reasonable.

Newbury 3:05 SILVER BY NATURE, ½pt eachway @ 25/1 (various, 4th odds)
Newbury 3:40 MINELLA THEATRE, 1pt eachway @ 11/1 (various, 4th odds)
Total = 3pts staked

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