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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Monday 29 November 2010

Last chance saloon at Folkestone

Today’s racing
After the “top-table” racing of the Hennessey meeting at Newbury, it’s back down-to-earth at Folkestone today for what may be the last jump meeting of the next few days. Hereford’s meeting on Tuesday has already gone, as has the Catterick meeting for Wednesday. The meeting at Ayr on Wednesday is in serious doubt as the course is currently frozen (there is an inspection planned at noon today). There is snow at Leicester and Market Rasen, which puts their meetings on Thursday in doubt – although Wincanton on Thursday at the moment seems hopeful of going ahead.

So then, just the Folkestone meeting today, but it does hold an interesting class 3 h’cap chase over 3m1f at 3:10. I am happy to oppose the fav Pacco, as he loved the soft going LTO and had very little to beat. He also loves Towcester (3 wins from 4 runs there) so with just about everything in his favour it was no wonder he ran-out a convincing winner. The quicker “good” going today may find him out tho’, as he has never run well when the going has been quicker than soft. Antonius Caesar (2nd-fav) ran his best race in ages LTO and given he last won off OR120, he is on a good mark of OR107 if he can recapture his old form. Ballyoliver (3rd-fav) is a chasing debutant from Venetia Williams stable. I always oppose her chasing debutants as she does not school her chasers at home prior to racing – they jump their 1st fence at the track! She employs a “sink or swim” attitude to chasers believing jumping is best learnt at the races rather than on the schooling ground. Which brings us to AMMUMITION, on a hat-trick and in the form of his life. I’m trying to find a chink in his form, but I can’t. Jonjo O’Neills Whataboutya won’t win off his h’cap mark of OR115. Reblis is an interesting runner, but his form suggests he’s best on soft or worse. DUNKELLY CASTLE looks capable of improving on what he’s shown to date, and he appreciates going right-handed. The form of his last race is working out well (couple of winners in Bobby Gee and Justabout, and Major Malarkey has run well since) and he looks the type to improve. His trainer, Roger Curtis, is having a bit of a quiet time lately (no wins in November), but he’s had a couple of chase winners at Folkestone in the past and this is his only runner today.

After a 3pts loss on Saturday, the blog is now on minus-1.40pts (from 19pts staked) during November.

Folkestone 3:10 DUNKELLY CASTLE, ½pt eachway @ 14/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)

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