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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Sunday 28 November 2010

Brave display from Denman

Sunday Supplement
What a tremendous Hennessey Gold Cup, and have we seen the emergence of a new order in the staying chasing ranks?
When they turned for home, with every fence jumped, the crowd roared on the defending champion Denman . Valiantly tho’ he tried, conceding 26lb to the likes of Diamond Harry and Burton Port was just too much. You have to remember that Nicky Henderson sent out Trabolgan to win the HGC with 11:12 after winning the RSA, and he was rated OR151. Burton Port ran 2nd in the RSA amd went into the HGC on OR153 – so, technically, a 2lb better horse than Trabolgan – yet carrying only 10st. Yesterday’s time was a fast one - 6m 27.81 – so, if you work on 4-lengths per second, Denman took about 3.50 secs longer and crossed the line in about 6m 31.30; or about 8.70 secs faster than when winning the race last year. The race was the only one to beat standard time in the entire 3-day meeting – this is rock solid form, and I would consider that Denman ran to a career best! Think about the time – it was 0.70secs above the course record on good-to-soft going! Denman recorded OR184 when winning the HGC last year, and I reckon he beat that yesterday and then ran to his absolute peak – and cracked. He could not get eventual winner DIAMOND HARRY off the bridle, and he reached his breaking point just after the 2nd-last fence. How do I rate the race?

If Denman bettered last year’s performance of OR184, by how much did he do it? I use The Tother One as the benchmark, and rate him at equalling his best of RPR163. That puts Denman on 190, and BURTON PORT and DIAMOND HARRY both on 179 (remember, Burton Port carried a 1lb over-weight with 10st 1lb). On that basis, Denman put up a better performance that when 2nd to Imperial Commander in the last Gold Cup. Perhaps he did (on paper), but races are not won by mathematics. Imperial Commander is about 6lb better than Denman, and on HGC form both Diamond Harry and Burton Port have about 11lb to find to beat Denman on level weights. On what we will see prior to the next Gold Cup, IMPERIAL COMMANDER @ 9/2 (William Hill) has to be taken, as does the 8/1 about Denman – this is cracking eachway value. From what we’ve seen when they’ve met at Cheltenham, Kauto Star does not like it being served up to him by Denman – it rattles his jumping rhythm. Given the fragility of Diamond Harry (trainer Nick Williams has already declared they won’t risk him again on the track before the Gold Cup), I reckon the 20/1 available on BURTON PORT for the Gold Cup looks cracking eachway value.

The pace of the Hennessey Gold Cup put the kybosh on several horses chances. Clearly, the going was too quick for SILVER BY NATURE and we should see a more improved performance on “soft” going or worse. The pace certainly did for WEIRD AL, and it looks like he’s not as good as was thought. What happened to PANDORAMA? After a couple of early errors, and being impeded by falling horses, he was adrift of the main group early-on and his jockey decided to pull him up. He has one more chance to redeem himself in my book.

The rest of the card was very impressive. PEDDLERS CROSS has put himself right into the Champion Hurdle picture in winning the Fighting Fifth, but I thought BINOCULAR ran very well considering that he went into the race very lightly prepared. I did advise in yesterday’s blog to take the 14/1 about the Champion Hurdle on PEDDLERS CROSS, and I hope you did as the value has now gone and he’s just best-priced at 6/1. BIG BUCKS winning the Long Distance hurdle was just a formality and he looks booked to win the World Hurdle at the Festival.

I was most disappointed with Minella Theatre in the 2m4f h’cap chase; he was under pressure from about a mile out and looked outclassed. Perhaps he’s better in smaller, less, competitive fields. As for Prince Du Beauchene (off the Alert List) he wants 3-mile, and this trip was too short for him.

All-in-all, the blog lost 3pts on Saturday which means that selections have now lost 1.40pts (from 19pts staked) during November. With most of racing cancelled due to the frost and snow, we may have to look to racing in December to recover the loss.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

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