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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 11 June 2010

Bafana, Bafana!

In today’s blog:
World Cup Specials
Today’s Selections
Review of yesterday’s blog
Betting on the Exchanges – strategy 2

World Cup Specials
Today marks the start of the first “African” World Cup and this is the start of a World Cup Specials section. With a bank of £100 we are going to make a wager on every game (if possible) with the objective to make as much as possible. There are two games today with the hosts South Africa playing World Cup veterans Mexico, and Uruguay playing France.
I reckon South Africa are in for a rude awakening on the world football stage and Mexico are no pushover; take MEXICO @ 13/8 (Bet365 & Stan James) to win for 1pt (£10).
As for France, they are not the side they were 4 years ago and Uruguay went through qualifying scoring plenty and conceding few. They look huge at 14/5 with Boylesports (as low as 9/4 with others); take URUGUAY @ 14/5 to win for 1pt (£10).

Today’s Selections
There are meetings everywhere today. Of the afternoon Flat meetings; at Sandown, Sir Michael Stoute has a great strike-rate and his runners are in form but both of his here are in tricky races. At York, Saunders CAPTAIN CAREY has all the ticks in the boxes, but I am not a great lover of 5f races. So its onto the evening meetings and if MUREB does not win for Suroor/Dettori in the 6:45 then there is something wrong. Suroor’s only runner of the day. The 7:55 at that meeting is particularly competitive, with only runners of the day from Roger Charlton, Luca Cumani and Barry Hills; this is a race to watch and take note of.
Also this evening at Chepstow, Sir Mark Prescott has his only runner today in the 6:25 CAFÉ ELEKTRIC and is another that should win. Also at that meeting, the fillies maiden at 8:05 is well contested with Stoute, Beckett and Cecil sending single representatives to the course, in Cecil’s case his only runner today. I would be tempted to put all 3 in a combination of straight forecasts (6 in total).
With the rain-storms across the country changing the going, I’m going to give racing selections a miss today and enjoy the football instead. BAFANA, BAFANA!

Review of yesterday’s blog (Thursday 10th June)
Not a good day for the blog selection Artic Shadow, which pulled-up after just a mile. This was after a period of considerable weakness in the market which suggests all was not right with the horse prior to the race. The rules say that a horse should be capable of running to its merits, if it isn’t then it should not run. I took 14/1 and was never in a position to lay-off once the race started.
I was right about the race fav Prophete De Guye and 2nd fav Knock Em Dead – neither was capable of winning the race, and you may have layed those to lose instead.
Although I did not abandon my principle of sticking to trainers-in-form yesterday, I did not provide you with a winner – yet trainers in form were rattling them in. Cumani was 2 from 2 yesterday, Stoute 2 from 3.

I came across this blog a few weeks back and it came up with a cracking winner yesterday in LUCKY NUMBERS at Haydock which I posted up on twitter. At the time posted on the blog it was 10/1 but was the subject of considerable market support having an SP of 4/1. Blog writer “The Laird” focuses on sprinters and he seems to have his finger on the pulse as he has provided a few winners from limited selections in recent weeks. Take note: http://sprinterstogo.blogspot.com

Betting on the exchanges
The 2nd strategy for novice punters who have been drawn to horse-racing and this blog by the Royal Ascot meeting. In anticipation of more visits to this blog from browsers looking for “tips” that are unfamiliar with betting exchanges (www.betfair.com), I am writing-up a few scenario’s for novices to have a go at, and the 1st such strategy was published on yesterday’s blog.
Having played the exchanges since the summer of 2001, I’ve been a “bettor”, a layer and a trader at times; and each has its benefits and pitfalls and I’ve probably found them all.

Strategy 2
Racing at Royal Ascot will be ultra-competitive as it is every year and a good way to try and prevent losses accumulating is by adopting a “back-to-lay” policy.
For the major racing festivals and meetings, the liquidity of the exchange markets is huge and there should be no problem placing wagers on the morning of the racing, usually at odds greater than industry SP (starting price).
If you have a fancy for a particular runner, place a wager at the best odds available – and with the increased turnover don’t take the odds available ask for them at the next increment (ie, don’t take 6.20, ask for 6.40 or 6.60). Then, when the money is “on”, place a “lay” to recover your stake at a much lower value. If it’s a close race and your selection is involved in the finish then – so long as at some point the selection looks like having a winning chance – the odds in-running should go below 2.10. What I tend to do is place a “lay” at about 3.05 to recover my stake, and another “lay” at 1.80 to take a small profit.
The upside to this is that if your selection runs well without winning then you are likely (but not guaranteed) to recover your stake, and may even make a profit from the race; the downside is that if your selection wins then you only collect a much reduced payout.

Example: Selection is best-priced at 8/1 with traditional bookmakers, and is priced at 9.40 on the exchanges. Your normal bet is £20 to win.

Place bet on Win market: £20 @ 9.40 anticipated profit (if winning) £168 (less 5% commission)
Place “lay” (and select to “keep” in-running) £20 @ 3.05 anticipated liability £41
Place “lay” (and select to “keep” in-running) £20 @ 1.80 anticipated liability £16

If your selection runs well enough to be involved in the finish without winning then the “lay” set at 3.05 should be taken and you emerge from the race even, without loss. If the selection is in a winning position inside the final furlong then the “lay” set at 1.80 should be taken – you are then in a profit situation (minimum of £20 less 5% commission) win or lose. If your selection wins then you collect the £168 profit from your initial “win” wager, less the liability on the “lays” of £57; profit on winning wager is £111 less 5% commission.

More Exchange betting strategies to follow will appear in the blog in the run-up to Royal Ascot next week.

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