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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 1 June 2010
St Nicholas Abbey out of Derby
Another blog I follow (http://laytheplacebet.blogspot.com/) had its recent run of success come to an end with only 1 succesful lay from 6 selections over the bank holiday weekend. Let's hope he pulls it around this week as place-laying can be a solid cash-cow if you play the odds right.
I place-laid just a single runner on Saturday at Catterick (its not something I put up on the blog before-hand as I watch the market odds and they only really develop in the 20 mins before the off) BECKERMET in the class 3, 7f handicap with 9-runners and the fav at 7/2, and 5 runners at 8/1 or shorter in the RP betting forecast. Competitive field and I thought Beckermet would be 8/1+ as from 24 races over 7f or longer its never-ever won and only been placed 6 times - all its wins have been over 5-6f, so clearly it does not stay 7f. Add to that Catterick favours a front-runner and there were 2 in the field so a good clip was guaranteed and it was a no-brainer. I could not believe it when I saw Beckermet was 4/1 and I place-laid at an average of 2.05 - it came 7th and the race-report says it all "prominent early, mid-division, ridden over 2f out, weakened final furlong".
Back to todays racing, and there's an interesting jumps meeting at Ffos Las tonight. None of my "trainer in-form" selections come from there tho'. There are 24 flat trainers with a 40%+ strike-rate "win & place" in the past 14-days, and today 14 of them send out runners, and 6 send out just a single horse to the track:-
W Haggas in the Yarmouth 6:45 with KAYAAN
Sir M Stoute in the Yarmouth 6:45 with TOP TIGRESS
I'll give these 3yo maidens a miss in this.
P D'Arcy in the Yarmouth 6:15 with TUPELO
Another one that should be passed-over, this being a class 6 2yo "seller", however D'Arcy has a tremendous 30% strike-rate at Yarmouth and is 4 wins from 8, 2yo runners.
Mrs R A Carr in the Redcar 4:00 with LUCKY ART
Mrs Carr has her string in tip-top form (only unplaced runner at the weekend was Beckermet - see above) but this lover of Thirsk will want it softer than today's Goo0to-Firm.
B Smart in the Redcar 5:30 with GREEN POPPY
Another class 6, this time a 6f amateur riders race for which GREEN POPPY is the RP fav - why? A race best avoided.
Which leaves us with John Gosden's BEACON HILL in the 4:45 at Leicester. Gosden is 9 from 27 here and 2 from 8 with his 2yo's and that is good enough for me despite it being a hotly contested maiden.
So that's today selections:
BEACON HILL 1pt e/w in the Leicester 4:45 - currently 6/1 (don't take less than 5/1).
I expect a better run from TUPELO but it needs a proverbial "rocket" to win this - has Mr D'Arcy worked the oracle?
And finally, Aidan O'Brien has pulled one-time Derby fav St Nicholas Abbey from the race with a "suspected pulled-muscle" - I doubt it will see the track again, and should now go straight to the paddocks in Kentucky.