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Record of the blog selections

Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 10 June 2010

Dolphin Rocks

A tremendously brave run for our only selection yesterday DOLPHIN ROCK who won at the generous odds of 9/2. Leading almost from the off, DOLPHIN ROCKS was able to dictate the pace and then, when the challenges came, battle-on bravely to run out a solid winner with a performance that showed a lot of promise. Quite why there was weak support in the market prior to the race is anyone’s guess – I thought the SP would be 3/1 or even shorter (hence my advice to take the 4/1 on offer in the morning). This was trainer TD Barron’s only runner at Haydock and he is a trainer in form having had winners at 13/8 and 7/2 with his sole runners on Sunday and Monday (sent none out on Tuesday) and a 55% strike-rate win & place (5w:6p:20r) and a 75% win & place strike-rate in the past 7-days. His stable is bouncing.

Review of yesterday’s blog (Wednesday 10th June)
A great day for the blog yesterday as, along with a 9/2 winner from our only selection, we spotted the weakness of the Sir Michael Stoute runner JEDI sent nearly 300 miles to Hamilton. At the time of posting, JEDI was 9/4 and that looked short to me, but the money kept pouring on from the Stoute supporters who thought him a good thing. I said in the blog that “I fear the horse will want further than this 12f, as his half-brothers Hi Calypso and Warringah did” and that’s how it proved, the horse coming home 4th at 7/4 and the RP race-comment was “He left the impression that he will be suited by a longer trip”. If you want the best racing advice and comment, read the Wayward Lad blog.

Today’s Selections
Plenty of flat racing today at Nottingham, Newbury and Yarmouth this afternoon and Haydock this evening. However, it is at Uttoxeter this evening that my attention has been drawn and the 3-mile class 4 handicap chase at 7:40. The fav for this race, Prophete De Guye, won a weak race over C&D last-time-out and has a 7lb penalty for that win. Technically 2lb “well-in” as his handicap rating has gone up 9lb but has yet to take effect, he will be the focus of the shop-punters. This is the chasing debut for 2nd-fav Knock Em Dead and this is a tough initiation. I was initially drawn to Skippers Lad who missed most of the winter campaign waiting for the return of good going which he gets today. The trip of 3-mile will suit him too, but a glance through the form-book shows that ARTIC SHADOW gave him 6lb and a 5-length beating over C&D last July. ARTIC SHADOW also does not like soft going and ran 4 times on it without success over the winter, including pulling-up LTO. His trainer Tim Vaughan is in rare form having sent out 9 winners from 22 runners in the last 11 days, so we know his string are fit to run a race. I would rate Skippers Lad a 5/1 chance (he’s available at 10/1 generally) but he is a bit of a plodder, and as ARTIC SHADOW is 7lb better-off with him on their last meeting (when he beat Skippers Lad by 5-lengths!) and given the form his trainer is in and with going and trip in his favour, he's rated a 3/1 chance. As he’s available at 12/1 with the Tote (10’s and 11’s elsewhere) he must rate todays value wager.

Uttoxeter 7:40 - ARTIC SHADOW @ 1pt each-way @ 12/1

Betting on the exchanges
With Royal Ascot next week, I’ve noticed there is a lot more activity regarding racing threads on twitter and this is likely to increase to a “climax” on Ladies Day next Thursday. In anticipation of more visits to this blog from browsers looking for “tips” that are unfamiliar with betting exchanges (www.betfair.com), I am writing-up a few scenario’s for novices to have a go at.
Having played the exchanges since the summer of 2001, I’ve been a “bettor”, a layer and a trader at times; and each has its benefits and pitfalls and I’ve probably found them all.

Strategy 1
A simple way to offer some protection to your wagers is to place a bet using both the win market and the place-only markets. The place-only market can offer some real value if your selection is not one of the market leaders, especially if you place your bet a couple of hours before the race.
First, decide on the amount of money you are prepared to wager on your selection (for this example we’ll use £20). On the place-only market for the race find the odds available for your selection then divide your stake by those odds; that is the amount to wager on the place-only market on your selection. For example, if the place-only odds for your selection are 3.20
£20 ÷ 3.20 = £6.25
Then, place the remaining balance of your wager (£20 - £6.25 = £13.75) on your selection in the “win” market.
If your selection runs well enough to be placed then you lose nothing (well, just 5% commission on place market winnings of £13.75); but if your selection wins then you collect big-style.
This style of betting offers the “protection” of an each-way bet but, as the stakes are adjusted according to the odds by a simple calculation, it maximises the return should your selection win.

More Exchange betting strategies to follow will appear in the blog in the run-up to Royal Ascot next week.

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