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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Sunday, 27 March 2011

AP O'Brien runs a Derby hopeful at Leopardstown

As expected, blog visitor numbers were down about 60% on weekday levels. It’s fair enough I suppose, but I’d have thought that a punt on a Saturday afternoon was part of the weekend’s entertainment for plenty of people. What it perhaps suggests is that the blog is not penetrating the committed punter market.

The blog selection yesterday SCOTS DRAGOON stayed on well enough to grab 3rd spot from Ogee after having looked like being tailed-off at one point. Jockey David Bass was hard at work from a long way out and much credit to him for getting the horse home in the money. The ½pt eachway stake returned a 0.4375pt profit. SCOTS DRAGOON should remain on this rating and on slightly quicker going NTO he should go very well. I expect him to take another try at the Scottish National as he clearly stays on well beyond 3m2f and should get the quick going he needs there. He was 12/1 last year when running off OR127, so if he goes there on just OR115 which is what he ran off yesterday then he’ll be worthy of a wager.

The fav Ogee ran a poor race; I did say he had it all to prove after an unconvincing run with conditions in his favour when last seen on the track. Also, I was on the button with suggesting Ruby Walsh was not good for Maktu. Walsh has a poor record when riding outside his retainers for Nicholls and Mullins. For me, Maktu stays 3-mile and not much further, and he had nothing more to give from the 2nd-last here. Rey Nacarado may have won the race, but he only out-stayed Maktu and if he’s raised more than a few pounds for this he may suffer.

Ireland starts the “flat” season in style today with a cracking meeting at Leopardstown. There are Guineas trials which should be interesting, but I’m looking at the final race on the card where O’Brien runs APACHE, a full brother to Cheshire Oaks winner Perfect Truth. He is bred to win a Derby and holds an entry (he’s 40/1) for the June race. He looks the type to improve a fair bit as a 3yo.

No selections today.

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