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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Monday 28 March 2011

Have we seen an Oaks filly over in Ireland?

A couple of interesting events on Sunday.
At Hexham, trainer Sue Smith recorded another winner when using talented 5lb claimer Shane Byrne. This season, Byrne has ridden almost exclusively for Sue Smith and has won on 16 of his 95 rides for the stable. However, if you look at his stats, when he rides a chaser for Sue Smith then take note as 12 of those winners have come from 51 chase rides, and his winner on Sunday was in a novice chase race.

At Leopardstown in Ireland, the opening fillies maiden went to MESARIYA trained by John Oxx, and this filly routed a decent field on her racing debut. It seems she could be destined for an attempt at the Oaks (Epsom or Curragh) based on this run. She’s one to watch. Oxx later ran HISTORY NOTE in the 7f Guineas Trial who was highly rated despite running over an inadequate trip but, for me, the one to note for this summer was MESARIYA. The O’Brien colt APACHE was beaten later in the afternoon, and looks like falling short based on this.

There are 2 jump meetings this afternoon, at Plumpton (my local track) and Towcester.
The entries for Plumpton look very ordinary, and some of the races are poorly supported. From my Horse Alert List runs ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, and he has been very disappointing this season. The horse looked a shadow of the one that beat Reblis at Huntingdon in December 2009 (just 15 months ago) and he meets that horse on 11lb better terms today! Looking at this race, the 3:40 at Plumpton, it’s hard to make a case for any as they are all out of form.

Towcester looks not much better, but the class 3 hurdle over 3-mile at 4:30 deserves a look. The fav Lidar has never run beyond 2m4f and Towcester, with its infamous uphill finish, is not the place to explore stamina. I don’t think Towcester will suit Connectivity either who has done most of his racing in Ireland on LH flat tracks. Prophet De Guye is a much better chaser than hurdler, and he’s never shown much over hurdles at all. Premier Des Marais stays 3-mile well (won over 3m2f at Huntingdon) and also has shown his best form going RH, but he was raised 10lb for that recent win and struggled off that mark LTO. An interesting one is Kilbeggan Blade who has not hurdled for 2 years, but last did off a mark of OR141 (runs off OR113 today) and also has a 10lb claimer riding. She’s On The Case is another with stamina to prove. Earcomesthedream has been struggling off his rating lately, and may want a bit of ‘give’ anyway, and Whitewater Dash is another who has never hurdled as well as he’s jumped a fence. If there is any life left in Kilbeggan Blade then, off the equivalent of OR103, he could win this doing handsprings. If push came to shove, I’d go for Premier Des Marais, but there are too many question marks in this race to warrant a wager.

No selections today.

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1 comment:

  1. ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES finally got it together to win at 13/2 for the Alert List. That's 7.80pts profit on a 1pt eachway stake. I'll prepare an update of the Alert List results.