Today is a big day for the blog as I post up a review of my most favourite race of the entire year (flat and jumps) and that’s the Grand National.
This year the betting market is dominated by the Irish entries that provide 3 of the 1st-4 in the market, including the current fav The Midnight Club.
My initial shortlist consists of the following:-
DON’T PUSH IT @ 16/1 (Hills, best odds guaranteed (BOG), 14’s Bet365 Non-runner, no bet (NRNB))
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE @ 25/1 (Bet365 NRNB & BOG)
WEST END ROCKER @ 33/1 (Bet365 NRNB & BOG)
MIDNIGHT CHASE @ 33/1 (Bet365 NRNB & BOG)
THE TOTHER ONE @ 50/1 (Stan James NRNB)
NORTHERN ALLIANCE @ 50/1 (Bet365 NRNB & BOG)
GRAND SLAM HERO @ 80/1 (Bet365 NRNB & BOG)
For the reasons behind my shortlist you’ll have to read the attached page (see left-side of the screen for the tab). I realise that there are 7 on the shortlist, but what I would suggest you do is have a small wager on these today (say £2 win and a £2 eachway wager on each selection; £6 staked on 7 selections, totals £42), and then a week from today, when we will know the final 40 likely to start, any further wagers can be made.
If push comes to shove, and I’d only one horse to take from this list, it would be NORTHERN ALLIANCE with 10st 8lb. Trainer AJ Martin has been trying to land a coup in this race for many years, and I think (with this horse) he has a good chance of pulling it off.
There were no recommended wagers on the blog yesterday. Of the 3 horses mentioned on the blog QUARTZ DE THAIX was a late non-runner, and RAYA STAR and PAPRADON both ran well below what was expected.
There is just the single jump meeting at Ludlow.
I like the look of Havingotascoobydo (what a mouthful) in the 2m5f handicap hurdle at 3:35, but odds of 5/2 don’t tempt me. The next on the card at 4:05 does tho’. It looks a wide open race on the betting, but there are a couple of right-hand specialists; namely The Snail, but also Tyup Pompey, and course winners Leamington Lad, Cruchain and Azulada Bay. The Snail has dropped to OR118 which is a 1lb above his last winning mark which was here over C&D. Tyup Pompey has lost the plot these days, as has Leamington Lad who - if he could recapture his form when 3rd here Sunnyhill Boy over C&D – would be a shoo-in. Cruchain tends to throw-away his races and is unreliable, and that brings me to AZULADA BAY. He won his first-ever race LTO and in 3 chases to date he’s improved with every one and looks a much better chaser than hurdler. Jason Maguire has the ride and at current odds of 9/1 (Betfred, BOG 5th odds a place 1,2,3) he looks the value in this even tho’ he’s ben off since that race in November. He is a prominent racer and safe jumper of a fence.
Selection:
Ludlow 4:05, AZULADA BAY, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 (Betfred, BOG 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
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It's always a tricky making the final selection for the blog (if any) as there is the need to weigh-up the chances of winning with the odds available. I did think HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO was the most likely winner of the 3:35 at Ludlow, but thought he was more of a 100/30 chance. Altho' he ran out a 5-length winner, he did waver a bit on the run-in and he was at the limit to win this.
ReplyDeleteNot a good result - AZULADA BAY (despite looking fit enough) was never in the race and was detached from the main group from the off, eventually being pulled-up about 4-out. The race was won by debut chaser Russian Epic after Cruchain jumped the last fence looking the most likely winner.
ReplyDeleteI've learned this morning that NORTHERN ALLIANCE is to be ridden by Barry Geraghty (can't do better than him) in the National.
ReplyDeleteTrainer AJ (Tony) Martin says (on Sporting Life website):-
"All going well Northern Alliance will be there and as long as the ground doesn't go to soft, he'll take his chance," Martin told At The Races."
"He's in good form and we probably shouldn't have run him on his last couple of runs. He's finished second and third but the ground in Ireland has been too heavy for him."
"We've given him a break and he seems fresh and well. He just wants proper decent ground."