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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Sunday 27 November 2011

Sunday supplement

The 391st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)

A blank day yesterday with WYKE HILL falling at the 3rd fence before the race had properly got going, and HUMBIE running an absolute stinker. It was an uncharacteristic error for WYKE HILL, he just never got enough height and crashed thru’ the fence, despite leading the field into it (thereby having a clear view). As for HUMBIE, he never looked happy from the off, and altho’ he made some good jumps and looked capable of getting back into the race when they passed half-way, that effort was short-lived. As such, top-weight Hey Big Spender merely had to run to form to win this.

My antepost selection in the Hennessey – SARANDO – was the 1st to fall at the 16th (of 21) fence. The race was just starting to hot-up and he was bustled into the previous fence, so he may have been feeling the pinch a bit. Up until then, he was running and jumping well, so I’d say he’s well handicapped off OR153 and he should be winning again NTO. Overall, I thought the Hennessey was a decent race and the eventual winner CARRUTHERS ran up to the level of his best form the Spring of 2010 (when he ran 4th in the Gold Cup to Imperial Commander). There are a lot of worse antepost wagers you could make than considering CARRUTHERS and yesterday’s runner-up PLANET OF SOUND for the Gold Cup as place prospects. Considering PLANET OF SOUND has run only 4 times at trips beyond 2m5f, his record is that of a top-class chaser and he should be aimed at the Gold Cup (there was talk of the Grand National yesterday) as he has a real chance as he’d have beaten Long Run in last week’s Betfair Chase based on this Hennessey run.

My biggest disappointment was not putting-up OVERTURN as a selection at 3/1, as he was never going to be caught by Binocular in the fighting Fifth hurdle. There was a bit of debate on Twitter about the consistency of Binocular, tho’ I’m not sure why as there cannot be many racing fans who don’t know that the only target for the horse is the Champion Hurdle in March and any races prior to that are part of the preparation for the big race. If this pair meets again on Boxing Day at Kempton, I expect Binocular to improve about 7lb and beat Overturn by a few lengths, and I expect a further 7lb improvement on that again for the Champion Hurdle in March.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Wayward,
    just finished reading you tribute to Ginger McCain which I thoroughly enjoyed. Would you be able to drop me an email, I have a related proposal I'd like to make if you'd be interested in hearing it. Can reach me (Jonas) at: seo[at]gambling-guru.com