Two winners y'day at 4/1 and 7/2, & potential 170% ROI

The 373rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

What a cracking set of results for the blog yesterday.
Just 3 selections and 2 winners, YOU KNOW YOURSELF was advised at 4/1 and won well at an SP of 11/4, and SARANDO romped home at 7/2 (wager advised with Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed).
I also advised taking the 40/1 on SARANDO for the Hennessey – did you? The best odds available this morning are 20/1, and trainer Paul Webber said afterwards. "We'll certainly have to look at the Hennessy now. I think he'll get into that with a 4lb penalty and I'd like to think there's still a bit of improvement in him”.
So, from 4pts staked we collected 10pts profit.
Also, I’ve been back thru’ my records and since 1st November 2010 when I started recording all my selections on the blog, I have made 11 x 2pt win selections, and 7 of them have won! They have recorded a 37.50pt profit from 22pts staked – that’s a 170% return on investment.

First, a plug for a great website if you are entering in the Tote Ten-To-Follow competition. You must visit Peter Martins site that is dedicated to the competition, the link is adjacent. Peter has been running this site for 14 years and it certainly makes putting together a shortlist so much easier. So do yourself a favour and visit http://www.petermartinconsult.supanet.com/racing/ttf/current.htm

As it’s my birthday today, I was hoping to go racing at Lingfield, but the meeting looks a poor one and there’s nothing there of interest to me.

Huntingdon is not much better. The h’cap hurdle at 3:20 could be a race to take an interest in. There has been a move for the fav Right Stuff who won his 1st hurdle at his 12th attempt LTO. He is 13/8 at best, which seems incredibly skinny for a horse that barely gats 2-mile and the extra 110 yards of today’s race could well find him out. Spectait has not seen a hurdle since October 2008, and won in some style a year earlier at Aintree – his sole hurdle win from 4 starts. He will be fit from a busy flat campaign, but he’s 15lb off his best on the flat now, and OR109 could be a bit high for him today. I’d go for Tayarat who won over C&D LTO, but his jockey has only 2 wins from 45 career rides so he does not exude confidence. I want to oppose the fav, but the only horse that looks capable of running well enough to beat him is KING OZZY who is the only runner today for Lawney Hill. He will enjoy the going and, being a prominent runner, should enjoy the pace set by Tayarat. He is a better hurdler than chaser, as he’s not looked comfortable in that sphere and he will have stamina at the business end having won at 2m3f. There is also money this morning for Break The Chain, so I won’t be recommending a wager in this race, tho’ I think Right Stuff is more of a 7/2 chance than 13/8.

At Sedgefield, the 2m4f Novices h’cap chase looks interesting. One from my alert list last season runs in GOING WRONG. He was off for nearly 2-years with a broken pelvis, so was certainly ring-rusty on his return LTO. He ran well for a long way over a trip (2-mile) much too short for him, and the extra half-mile today will be in his favour. I reckon he was capable of OR145 as a hurdler, so running off OR127 today is another bonus. The form of that last race has worked out well (if not brilliant) with the 2nd and 3rd both being beaten by very decent looking horses yesterday. None in this field, other than GOING WRONG, look like they’ll appreciate this trip, so odds of 3/1 look generous. On a line thru’ The Cockney Mackem, there is nothing separating Quite The Man and Flinty Bay, yet the latter is 5/2 and Quite The Man is at 7/1. My selection is GOING WRONG, but I will also have a straight forecast including Quite The Man.

Selections:
Sedgefield 2:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

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