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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday, 30 November 2011

Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort'men

The 392nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)

Final day of November, and a great result for the month; the full results being:-
1st Nov, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4; unplaced …2.00pts lost
7th Nov, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
7th Nov, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
7th Nov, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 7/2; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
8th Nov, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
9th Nov, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
9th Nov, SANGFROID, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
11th Nov, CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew; unplaced …2.00pts lost
12th Nov, WOLF MOON, 1pt win; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
15th Nov, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
16th Nov, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win; lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
19th Nov, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew; WON @ 8/1 …9.60pts PROFIT
21st Nov, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win; lost (3rd of 5) …1.00pts lost
25th Nov, AIGLE D'OR, 2pts win; unplaced …2.00pts lost
26th Nov, WYKE HILL, 1pt win; Fell …1.00pts lost
26th Nov, HUMBIE, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost

Selections for November 2011 = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)

As can be seen, I am no follower of the fav’s and short-priced horses so the strike-rate of winners to runners is not huge – but, at the end of the day, I’m in profit.

There has been no blog since Sunday as the racing has been dire. To be fair, today’s racing is not much better.

At Hereford, Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort’men, so he must think that the horse has a future over fences. Always best watched these novice chases, especially when horses are jumping a fence for the 1st time in public. One I will be keeping an eye on is TIGER O’TOOLE who is not a bad hurdler (OR136) and his usualy style of running (held-up) could aid him here today over the first couple of fences by enabling to have a look at them and get into a rhythm. He’s 10/1 generally, and I’d rather have a “fiver” on him than risk £25 on one of the 7/4 joint-favs who head the market with the prospect of a similar return.

Later at Hereford, there is an interesting 2-mile h’cap chase at 2:50pm. The fav is Bradford Boris who is on my alert list, but I feel this trip is a bit on the short side for him and that he would prefer another half-mile. He will need to lead and set a decent pace to expose the others in the race, however his jumping hasn’t been fluent in the past. As such, I’m looking elsewhere in the race and Evan Williams (also trainer of Tiger O’Toole) sends the unexposed WESTER ROSS for this. Williams has his stable in top form (8 wins from 21 rnrs in past 14-days) and he has a 21% strike rate with chasers at Hereford. WESTER ROSS appreciated the drop to 2-mile LTO (he does not stay much further) and even tho’ he’s got a 7lb penalty, he is officially 2lb well-in for this. Odds of 9/2 look fair.

David Pipe sends out only one runner today – Poole Master in the 12:40 at Uttoxeter, interesting!

Neil Mulholland also has only one runner today – Big Knickers in the 3:40 at Uttoxeter. The horse looks well handicapped on his run when 2nd to E Street Boy but whether he will stay 3-mile today is the question.

No selections today, I will choose to end the month of November in profit.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

1 comment:

  1. David Pipe's only runner of the day - POOLE MASTER - wins at an SP of 11/8 (was 5/2 with many books from 11am till 12:30 (Paddy Power & Betfred).