Looking for a winner at Folkestone

The 380th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ if you read the blog you will have noted that I wrote that Emma Lavelle has a good record at Plumpton – and she took the opener with the 11/1 winner Gleann Eagas. Lavelle has now recorded 8 winners from her last 19 runners.
Flaming George only just failed (by a neck) to win for Paul Nicholls, and this race looks decent form. On a more galloping track he could be capable of running to a level of 125+.
Master Milan looked like continuing Jonjo O’Neill's awful November until pure class got him home – his hurdling was atrocious. And trainer of the moment, David Pipe, came away with a brace of winners from 4 sent to Plumpton. Take note of WINGS OF ICARUS – he’s a half-brother to top class chaser QUITO DE LA ROQUE and World Hurdle 3rd, KAZAL. He should find 2m5f+ his best trip in time.
AP McCoy was at Leicester, and had 3 winners from 4 rides – none of them supplied by his retaining trainer, Jonjo O’Neill.

There are two meetings today at Fakenham and Folkestone, and they are both poor quality. It could well be a day for following the money. At Folkestone, one from last season’s alert list runs in ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. Now, this horse has led me a merry dance these past 12 months, running 14 times since 19th Sept ’10 and winning 4 times at odds of 5/2, 13/2, 8/1 and 25/1 – and I did not have a wager on him when he won, but consistently followed him when he lost! Today, he is 9/2 with Paddy Power in what looks on paper to be a 2-horse race (only 5 go to post) as Current Climate makes his chase debut, and both Baroque and Romney Marsh are very poor chasers. With main rival Run To Fly making the long trip from South Wales for Peter Bowen, he is a 4/5 odds-on fav. Both are front-runners, both will stay this trip. What swings me towards ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES is that he’s won a chase off a 7lb higher rating, and he’s won on today’s going (good-to-firm). Also, claimer Tom Cannon takes off 5lb and he is worth every ounce. He’s won 7 chases from 21 rides for Chris Gordon (trainer of ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES) this season.

Selection:
Folkestone 3:30, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, best odds guaranteed)

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