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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday 14 December 2012
Yesterday, I tipped BALLY LEGEND in the 1:50 at Taunton, and MARSHAL ZHUKOV in the 3:20, also at Taunton. Bally Legend was a well beaten 2nd in his race and looks like he's not going to be as good a chaser as he was a hurdler. However, MARSHAL ZHUKOV was an emphatic winner, leading 2-out to score at an SP of 2/1. A 1pt win wager on both selections would have seen you in profit by 1pt on the day at SP (starting prices) though Marshal Zhukov was available at 5/2 for most of the afternoon (I don't advise wagers at odds shorter than 9/4).
If there is no blog, then I will post any selections of mine on twitter. Don't worry, I'm not one of these tipsters who makes half-a-dozen (or more) selections a day and crows about it when just one wins. Before yesterday, my previous selection on twitter was on Tuesday - YA HAFED which I advised was an eachway wager @ 7/1. That selection also turned a profit, as YA HAFED finished 2nd at an SP of 17/2. Essentially, my selections are either 1pt win, or ½pt eachway. YA HAFED returned a 0.35pt profit at SP.
As there was no blog last Saturday, I advised 2 selections via twitter; both were 1pt win selections. Imperial Circus who finished 3rd of 5 runners; and Wayward Prince who won at and SP of 4/1. WAYWARD PRINCE opened at 9/2 on-course and was available at 5/1 in the morning, but I'm happy to take 4/1. So then, the last 3 days on which I've advised selections have all returned a profit and, just this week, if you are following me then you are 4.35pts ahead on an investment of 5pts; that a ROI (return on investment) of 87%. However, when I calculate my blog profit (and loss, if there is one) I will NOT include twitter selections as not everyone who reads the blog uses twitter.
On Wednesday, I suggested that ZARKANDAR looked a good wager in the International Hurdle on Saturday at Cheltenham. His current odds for that race are 5/4 which is fair. Now, as I've said, I don't advise wagers at odds of 9/4 so what will be a more long-term ploy is taking advantage of the 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle. I expect ZARKANDAR to win on Saturday and, when that happens, unless he only scrapes home by less than a neck those Champion Hurdle odds should contract and he could well be the 5/1 joint-fav (with Hurricane Fly) come 3:15pm on Saturday.
For the feature race on Saturday, the Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup (handicap chase) over 2m5f, Ghizao has not been declared. As such, I'm focusing totally on the mare Nadiya De La Vega. She runs off the same mark of OR145 as when 3rd in the Paddy Power LTO, and so she has a 5lb pull with Walkon. I repeat my assertion of earlier this week: at 10/1 quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4 she looks stonking value.
Today at Cheltenham we have a cracking day of racing. There's lots to write about so I won't spend too long on each race. The opening race has a red-hot fav in Broadbackbob, but "evens" is too short for me. He comes here with a lot of confidence and should win.
The 2nd race on the card is at 12:45, and 2 years ago SOUND STAGE won this in a canter off OR105. That was only his 3rd chase race and, later that season, he ran 2nd to Midnight Chase at level-weights over a similar trip. Were they to meet today, Midnight Chase would have to concede 45lbs to SOUND STAGE; and I rated SOUND STAGE at 132. He races off OR115 today and, in the intervening period, he's been campaigned primarily over 3-mile or more with stats of 10 runs, 0 wins, 2 places (both 3rd). SOUND STAGE does not stay a yard more than 2m6f. Yes, he'll plod-on into 6th or 7th, but he is not anywhere near as effective beyond 2m6f as he is at trips shorter than that. Trainer Caroline Keevil had a winner in MARSHAL ZHUKOV yesterday, and aims to have a winner at this Cheltenham meeting (she won the 2m1f hurdle with Bally Legend last year). I was hoping for slightly longer odds but 10/1 is fair enough.
I've not looked at the 1:20, so my next race is the 1:55, the 3m1½f handicap chase. This looks a cracker of a race and - as Tom Segal writes in the Racing Post (as Pricewise) any one of the front-3 in the betting can win this. I think Midnight Chase may just be past it, but Cheltenham brings out the best in him.. So, it's between Quartz De Thaix and BRADLEY. I favour the latter mainly as I think that the Cheltenham race he was 2nd in LTO will be very influential this season (Monbeg Dude runs in the Welsh National - you read it here first). The worry is that he may end up in a race-long battle for the lead with Midnight Chase and that will leave the race open for Quartz De Thaix to pounce. Giving 22lb to BRADLEY should prove too much for Midnight Chase tho' and BRADLEY should run-out a clear winner - even so, I would NOT take less than 3/1.
My final race assessment is for the 3:05 which is a 3-mile handicap hurdle. In my experience, genuine 3-mile hurdlers are rare beasts and, when you find one, you should follow them. CROSS KENNON is such a horse and when in his prime in this sphere 2 seasons back he was rated OR154 after running 4th in the World Hurdle in 2011. He looked back to his best LTO when losing out to the unexposed and potentially very good Goulanes to whom he was conceding 14lb, and a repeat of that should see him in the frame if not winning here. As such, 12/1 looks decent.
Lastly, I have been a big supporter of CUE CARD for the past couple of seasons, and I think he has a tremendous chance in the coming King George Chase on Boxing Day (for which he is 7/1). However, the horse who I reckon will follow him home is KAUTO STONE and if today's reports that AP McCoy is being offered the ride (Daryl Jacob being suspended) then I'd take the 16/1 eachway that's on offer.
Cheltenham 12:45, SOUND STAGE, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor both BOG ¼-odds a place 1,2,3)
Cheltenham 1:55, BRADLEY, 1pt win @ 3/1 (don't take less, it is generally available)
Cheltenham 3:05, CROSS KENNON, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 (William Hill, BetVictor both BOG ¼-odds a place 1,2,3,4)
I will also be having a personal ¼pt eachway double on SOUND STAGE and CROSS KENNON.
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Thanks from Wayward Lad