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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 7 December 2012

The Big Freeze is coming

Welcome back and, before I recap on last weekend's performance, did any readers manage to take advantage of that 6/1 winner that I advised via twitter yesterday? There was just one horse running off my personal alert list (I use easyodds, as their alert list facility is free and - so far - without limit on numbers), and that was DREAM FUNCTION. This horse is a sister to Captain Chris and had won twice from 3 races last autumn (2011) for trainer Phil Hobbs, before moving to Ireland. I sent out a message on twitter (my handle is: @wayward_lad) at 12:15pm which left readers plenty of time to get on before the race started at Clonmel at 2:45. I am not a "tipster" who puts-up selections less than 5 minutes before the off-time on twitter - many do, but not me. Admittedly, the selection was fortunate as Cadspeed, trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Ruby Walsh, was 12-lengths clear of Dream Function coming to the final fence where he fell. That left Dream Function to saunter past the stricken horse and take an easy win. The horse was very easy to back (I was on at 10.50 on Betfair about 30 mins before the race), but as it wasn't posted on the blog I'll not take the winner into my profit figures for the season.

We had another good winner on the blog last weekend in ROLLING ACES and, as such, made a ½pt profit last Saturday making 22.90pts profit last week. In the Hennessey, Fruity O'Rooney gave followers a great run and even jumping the 2nd-last I thought the horse would be placed and return a profit, but he tired quickly after the last fence. Harry the Viking never really got into the race and possibly wants a drop in grade and another half mile. Earlier on the card, Rey Nacarado looked like taking the race 2-out but was one-paced thereon. He does relish an extreme test, so perhaps softer going would benefit him.

Onto today, but before I continue THE WILL BE NO BLOG TOMORROW. Believe it or not, I actually have a full-time job and tonight it is the firm's Christmas Party. I'm staying-over in London afterwards and going Christmas shopping on Saturday in the "West-End". If I find any value in the morning (while I'm having breakfast somewhere in Borough Market) then I'll be posting it on twitter.

We have a couple of meetings today, at Sandown and Exeter, and they both look useful. I would keep an eye on the weather tho' especially the meeting at Sandown, as it's very cold and sleety this morning. At Exeter, the 4-mile handicap chase at 1:30 could be gruelling. There will be a good pace on thru'out courtesy of Shaking Hands (2nd in this race last year) and Ammunition. Lord Tomnoddy is interesting as his trainer Kim Bailey is 4 wins from 5 runners here in chases in the past 5 seasons. The horse will act on the soft (heavy in places) ground and, for a 10yo, is very lightly raced (just 8 races under rules), so there could be some improvement to come. But, at just 7/2 as I write, he does not look value to me. The one that does is GRADUATION NIGHT who I tipped on 10th November when coming 5th of 12 at Sandown over 3m1f. He looks to me like he'll enjoy this step-up in trip, and he'll be able to sit behind the pace-makers and pounce late-on when his stamina comes into play. Currently 10/1 (Betfred, BetVictor, Corals & Tote) he looks a worthwhile eachway wager. Later on the Exeter card at 3:15, I do like the look of THE BIG FREEZE but there's no room for error in his current odds of 3/1 in this novice handicap chase. Even so, I expect this 6yo horse from the Tim Vaughan stable to pay his way this winter.

At Sandown, the meeting looks a tricky one for punters, so tread carefully! The feature is the 2:20 which is a "Listed" chase over an extended 3-mile. I will be very surprised if BOLD SIR BRIAN is beaten in this, as he's not stopped improving and this trip of 3-miles could well be his best. He has already won at 2m7f at Kelso on soft, so I can't find any question-marks. This is a straight "match" with Pacha Du Polder from Paul Nicholls stable and BOLD SIR BRIAN should win with something in hand. I don't advise wagers at odds under 9/4, so I won't advise a wager on BOLD SIR BRIAN at 11/10 - but I wouldn't put anyone off. The amateur riders h'cap chase at 2:55 is a cracker. Quite why Vincitore is 16/1 is beyond me as he's proven at this trip and his rider, Miss Hart, gets on well with him. I'd expect a place from him.  I tipped Brackloon High last week, and he fell at the 1st fence, so my confidence is shaken a bit in him. The market has moved for Dashing George as he's won over C&D in Feb11 and a repeat of that form would see him win easily. But, he's not a safe jumper of a fence, and his mistakes were his downfall LTO. Were he 8/1+ I'd say he was an eachway proposition, but at just 4/1 he's too short for me. The one I like the look of is SATOU, who is the only runner for trainer Phil Hobbs at Sandown today. This 6yo has been running well this autumn and he's also a C&D winner (Dec11). He looks like giving a bold show in this race, which has a few duffers racing in it, and odds of 7/1 (William Hill & Skybet) look generous. Finally, when Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty get together than take notice, so Berenger in the last race at Sandown should not be allowed to go off at 8/1 even if his form is a bit dubious. He's clearly a slow horse and lacking gears, but if anyone can conjure a run out of the horse it will be Geraghty.

Exeter 1:30, GRADUATION NIGHT, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (BetVictor, BOG, 5th odd a place 1,2,3)

Sandown 2:55, SATOU, ½pt eachway @ 7/1 (William Hill, BOG, 5th odd a place 1,2,3)

Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all visitors, I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.  If you've had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!  Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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