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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday, 7 December 2012
The Big Freeze is coming
We had another good winner on the blog last weekend in ROLLING ACES and, as such, made a ½pt profit last Saturday making 22.90pts profit last week. In the Hennessey, Fruity O'Rooney gave followers a great run and even jumping the 2nd-last I thought the horse would be placed and return a profit, but he tired quickly after the last fence. Harry the Viking never really got into the race and possibly wants a drop in grade and another half mile. Earlier on the card, Rey Nacarado looked like taking the race 2-out but was one-paced thereon. He does relish an extreme test, so perhaps softer going would benefit him.
Onto today, but before I continue THE WILL BE NO BLOG TOMORROW. Believe it or not, I actually have a full-time job and tonight it is the firm's Christmas Party. I'm staying-over in London afterwards and going Christmas shopping on Saturday in the "West-End". If I find any value in the morning (while I'm having breakfast somewhere in Borough Market) then I'll be posting it on twitter.
We have a couple of meetings today, at Sandown and Exeter, and they both look useful. I would keep an eye on the weather tho' especially the meeting at Sandown, as it's very cold and sleety this morning. At Exeter, the 4-mile handicap chase at 1:30 could be gruelling. There will be a good pace on thru'out courtesy of Shaking Hands (2nd in this race last year) and Ammunition. Lord Tomnoddy is interesting as his trainer Kim Bailey is 4 wins from 5 runners here in chases in the past 5 seasons. The horse will act on the soft (heavy in places) ground and, for a 10yo, is very lightly raced (just 8 races under rules), so there could be some improvement to come. But, at just 7/2 as I write, he does not look value to me. The one that does is GRADUATION NIGHT who I tipped on 10th November when coming 5th of 12 at Sandown over 3m1f. He looks to me like he'll enjoy this step-up in trip, and he'll be able to sit behind the pace-makers and pounce late-on when his stamina comes into play. Currently 10/1 (Betfred, BetVictor, Corals & Tote) he looks a worthwhile eachway wager. Later on the Exeter card at 3:15, I do like the look of THE BIG FREEZE but there's no room for error in his current odds of 3/1 in this novice handicap chase. Even so, I expect this 6yo horse from the Tim Vaughan stable to pay his way this winter.
At Sandown, the meeting looks a tricky one for punters, so tread carefully! The feature is the 2:20 which is a "Listed" chase over an extended 3-mile. I will be very surprised if BOLD SIR BRIAN is beaten in this, as he's not stopped improving and this trip of 3-miles could well be his best. He has already won at 2m7f at Kelso on soft, so I can't find any question-marks. This is a straight "match" with Pacha Du Polder from Paul Nicholls stable and BOLD SIR BRIAN should win with something in hand. I don't advise wagers at odds under 9/4, so I won't advise a wager on BOLD SIR BRIAN at 11/10 - but I wouldn't put anyone off. The amateur riders h'cap chase at 2:55 is a cracker. Quite why Vincitore is 16/1 is beyond me as he's proven at this trip and his rider, Miss Hart, gets on well with him. I'd expect a place from him. I tipped Brackloon High last week, and he fell at the 1st fence, so my confidence is shaken a bit in him. The market has moved for Dashing George as he's won over C&D in Feb11 and a repeat of that form would see him win easily. But, he's not a safe jumper of a fence, and his mistakes were his downfall LTO. Were he 8/1+ I'd say he was an eachway proposition, but at just 4/1 he's too short for me. The one I like the look of is SATOU, who is the only runner for trainer Phil Hobbs at Sandown today. This 6yo has been running well this autumn and he's also a C&D winner (Dec11). He looks like giving a bold show in this race, which has a few duffers racing in it, and odds of 7/1 (William Hill & Skybet) look generous. Finally, when Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty get together than take notice, so Berenger in the last race at Sandown should not be allowed to go off at 8/1 even if his form is a bit dubious. He's clearly a slow horse and lacking gears, but if anyone can conjure a run out of the horse it will be Geraghty.
Exeter 1:30, GRADUATION NIGHT, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (BetVictor, BOG, 5th odd a place 1,2,3)
Sandown 2:55, SATOU, ½pt eachway @ 7/1 (William Hill, BOG, 5th odd a place 1,2,3)
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