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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 15 December 2012

Cheltenham Saturday

Yesterday was not the best of days. I really convinced myself that Sound Stage had a half-decent chance, but he could cope with the ground. Let’s be honest, advance going reports described as  ”good-to-soft” should not become “heavy “  once racing starts. It made a mockery of form-study in advance of the racing.  My win selection, Bradley, also did not cope with the ground, whereas the race winner Master Overseer had good form on heavy.  It was a great run by Quartz De Thaix in 2nd and he can win again on better ground. Similarly, the final selection, Cross Kennon, struggled to last home.
Onto today, and let’s try and use that ground knowledge.
At Cheltenham, in the 1:20, OH CRICK has never been unplaced in 6 races on soft/heavy. With ground doubts over the fav Shooters Wood, and French import Garynella being an unknown quantity, I’m happy to have a 1pt win wager on OH CRICK at 9/2 (BetVictor) as the horse ran a cracker LTO.
The feature race at 2:30 has a strong fav in Walkon, who will love this ground. However, he’s best caught fresh and has “bounced” on his 2nd run of the season in the past. I cannot go for the 4yo Unioniste, tho’ I’m sure he’s a huge future, and I prefer his stablemate Cristal Bonus who has winning form on heavy ground. However, I’ve been banging-on about NADIYA DE LA VEGA all week and I’m not deserting the mare now. She should cope with the ground and comes here fit and well and has AP McCoy in the saddle (Barry Geraghty is on last years winner Quantitativeeasing).  A ½pt eachway at 10/1 (Hills, Paddy Power) looks good value to me.

That’s it for today (Christmas shopping calls):
Cheltenham 1:20, OH CRICK, 1pt win @ 9/2 (BetVictor, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:30, NADIYA DE LA VEGA, ½pt each way @ 10/1 (Hills & Paddypowwer, BOG)

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