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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 21 December 2012

Cue Card worthy of an interest

There was only one horse running from my personal alert list yesterday, and I managed to persuade myself not to have a wager on it - SHAKING HANDS went on to win the 2:10 at Towcester @11/2, beating my selection Chac Du Cadran into 2nd in the process.

So much for me thinking the horse would not be happy on the rain-sodden ground, he made-all and came home the 11/2 winner. His previous races on soft/heavy going have seen him pull-up (LTO), come last of 11, 4th of 13, 3rd of 9, 2nd of 7, 1st of 11 (as a novice chaser), pulled-up (again), and 1st of 10 in his debut chase. With a couple of novice chase wins on heavy I was perhaps being over-critical, but he has pulled-up a couple of times too on extreme going. His rider, Tom Scudamore, gave him every opportunity to win by moving over to the stands-side rail after the 2nd last which caused the runner-up to move into the centre of the track if he was going to overtake. That caused Chac Du Cadran to lose his balance going into the final fence, and more vital yards and momentum, which he was unable to recover on the run-in. This was a hard slog and I reckon all the 1st-3 home will need a good rest after this.  Anyway, I'm in need of a change in fortune.

Today, we have only Ascot surviving the rain of the past few days. At 2:30, we see the chasing debut of the current "Arkle" fav Simonsig, from Nicky Hendersons's stable. I would be surprised to see this horse beaten today, but I am also surprised to see the horse have his chase debut on such awful, testing ground. Current odds of 1/5 are a bit stupid in my opinion as Henderson has had a couple of dodgy novice chasers in the recent past which were very decent hurdlers - so it is not a formality. In the 3:05 at Ascot, there is one from my alert list, SPANISH ARCH. This horse looks like he has a big future ahead of him, but I hate having wagers on heavy ground on horses that have no previous winning form on it, so I'll be watching only.

Looking ahead, it is interesting that connections of JUNIOR have stumped-up the £10,000 supplementary entry fee for the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day. They are clearly expecting this to be a slog in the mud, something that JUNIOR is well-up for and he'll come into this race bang-in-form. Let's be honest, unless those at the head of the market all fail to finish then JUNIOR is unlikely to win, however he is capable of taking 3rd or 4th place and providing a profit on the supplementary entry fee. He may well be worth including in any "swinger" wagers on the Tote, if that is your bag.. The more the weather stays wet, the more likely it is that LONG RUN will win on Boxing Day. He currently has an OR172 rating, and I think he's up to that mark, especially when racing on soft/heavy ground. I have been a big supporter of CUE CARD since his novice hurdle days (if you remember, there was talk that he may even have attempted the Champion Hurdle as a 5yo novice), but he is unproven at 3-mile as either a hurdler or a chaser. I think he will stay 3-mile, and I think he is potentially a better 3-miler than Long Run, but that is still to be proven on the track. The worry is that if he doesn't stay 3-mile then he may stop very quickly after the 3rd last fence on Boxing Day. Currently, CUE CARD is 5/1 at best odds (offered by Vic Chandler) and that's worth a small win wager, say ½pt.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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