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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 7 December 2013

Big day ahead - early Christmas present

We opened yesterday with a winner when VIOLET DANCER won easily at the very attractive odds of 9/4. As I wrote, if the fav Sweet Deal was trained by anyone else other than Nicky Henderson, then VIOLET DANCER would be odds-on – “I think odds of 6/4 are good value.“ At times, I wish I was at the races rather than at my office desk as, at 9/4 VIOLET DANCER would have been a 2pt or £80 win wager. This is why I write a narrative behind my selections: At less than 9/4 (the minimum odds at which I advise a wager) VIOLET DANCER was a “no-bet”, but – at 9/4 – he was serious good value, and I hope readers took advantage.

Unfortunately, our blog selection MERRION SQUARE was 2nd and went down by just a neck! despite looking the most likely winner at the final fence. I was certainly expecting a big run, and that’s what we got, but it was not enough on the day. Still, we only lost a few quid thanks to the place wager.
I was right to side-step Foundation Man, who looked a bit jaded and never justified being the 11/4 joint fav in the race won by The Italian Yob. Don’t give up on Foundation Man tho’, being a half bro’ to Captain Chris he’ll make good use of his lenient OR120 rating. Unfortunately, Rolling Aces was undone tactically by jockey Jamie Moore on Vino Griego. The pace was never strong enough in this 3-runner race and Vino Griego was able to stalk Rolling Aces and pick him off on the run-in. Harry Topper was exposed as a poor jumper of a fence. Finally yesterday, Bally Legend scraped-home by a nose as he idled in front and was almost caught on the line. As I wrote yesterday, Caroline Keevil’s horses don’t run well at Exeter (she’s now only 3 wins from 61 runners there) and I’m glad I took the early 100/30 to small money.

Onto today and what a cracking day of racing we have ahead, with meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow and Wetherby. Before I go on, I have written a “Guest Blog” for the website www.gallopslive.com under my blog name of Wayward Lad, and the race I have chosen to focus on is the Becher Chase. Please take a visit to the site via the link as there is plenty going on there with some great bloggers and tipsters. Whatever happens with the Becher Chase, I won’t be using the result as part of my stats record for this blog – and I’ve tipped a runner currently at 22/1 with Stan James that I think has a great chance that is NOT one from my alert list.

There is plenty to be getting on with so without further ado, let’s get stuck in. The Horse Alerts:-
Sandown 12:50 – MRS PEACHEY
Sandown 1:20 - UPSWING, and WHISPER
Sandown 1:50 – BALDER SUCCES
Sandown 2:25 – VULCANITE, and WATERUNDER
Sandown 3:00 – VIVA COLONIA, and SIRE DE GRUGY
Chepstow 12:25 – ROUDOUDOU VILLE
Chepstow 12:55 – MIDNIGHT PRAYER
Chepstow 2:00 – QUARTZ DE THAIX
Chepstow 3:10 - RENARD

I’m giving the 1:00 a miss as CLONDAW KAEMPFER is on a recovery mission. I’ve looked at the 2:05 “Becher Chase” on the website www.gallopslive.com under my blog name of Wayward Lad. The 2:40 looks a better proposition as KATENKO stands head & shoulders above these in terms of ability on last season’s form, but odds of 9/4 currently available are borderline value. The 3:15 sees the return of our 25/1 hero MIDNIGHT APPEAL and we should not overlook his chance. He may have been raised 7lb by the handicapper, but that (in my opinion) is not enough for this much underrated chaser. Current odds of 8/1 look fair value even tho’ I think he’d have taken all the beating in the 3m2f Becher Chase and would have preferred him to go for that race instead.

This meeting has lost some of its shine with Sprinter Sacre not taking part in the Tingle Creek Chase. However, we have what look like some good opportunities. In the 12:50 we see the useful mare MRS PEACHEY. When you find a good mare then is pays to stick with her as mares-only races are a bit weak The 2:25 a 2-mile hurdle handicap, looks very interesting as I’ve been waiting for some time for VULCANITE to drop back in trip to 2-mile as he barely stays a yard further. I was hoping he’d go for a 2-mile chase, but we will have to make do with this hurdle. The last time he ran in a hurdle over this sort of trip, VULCANITE won well and I think he’s a better horse now. The ground isn’t soft enough for WATERUNDER but he should be in the shake-up. The Tingle Creek Chase should go to SIRE DE GRUGY but I’m not prepared to have a wager at the current odds. This 2-mile trip is too short for VIVA COLONIA and he’s outclassed anyhow. The final race on the Sandown card is a cracker – the London National over 3m5f & 110yards.  I think all of my horse alert runners BRADLEY, BUDDY BOLERO, and GODSMEJUDGE have good chances in this race. and I will be combining them in 3 “swingers” on the Tote.

When I saw the declarations for the 3-mile chase at 2:00, QUARTZ DE THAIX stood out, and with odds at 10/1 (Stan James and Paddy Power) he has to be an eachway wager. I think RENARD has a great chance in the 3:10, but the odds are too tight for a wager. And don’t forget to look for ROUDOUDOU VILLE. Off the track for a very long time, this horse was seriously talented in 2011 (gave Midnight Appeal 13lb and a 4-length beating) and if anywhere near that level the 16/1 on offer now will look live an early Christmas present. Well worth a couple of quid if your in the bookies.

Aintree 3:15 MIDNIGHT APPEAL, £5 eachway @ 8/1 with Bet Victor & Bet365
Sandown 2:25 VULCANITE, £5 eachway @ 16/1 with Stan James
Chepstow 2:00 QUARTZ DE THAIX, £5 eachway @ 10/1 with Stan James

Total Staked = £30

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