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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 4 December 2013

Decent meetings for a Wednesday

Wouldn't you just believe it! What did I write about BILLY CUCKOO yesterday?
If Billy Cuckoo was back to the form he showed last season, he could be interesting. He is a confirmed front runner and quite a game one at that, so this tight Southwell circuit will play to his strengths. Billy Cuckoo did need a run last season but his seasonal debut 6-weeks ago was so dire only his owner could fancy him today. Current odds of 14/1 are tempting tho' for a "back-to-lay" play on the exchanges as, with only 7 runners going to post, a place-only wager may be a bit optimistic.
Sure enough, BILLY CUCKOO set a strong pace from the off and on the 2nd-circuit of this tight Southwell track, it was quickly apparent that he'd seen off most of the field. One of the first to flag was LAST SHOT who was probably feeling the effects of a few recent races. BILLY CUCKOO briefly lost the lead at the 3rd-last fence to race fav Moorlands Jack, but had regained it by the next fence where the exhausted race-fav duly fell, leaving BILLY CUCKOO in a clear lead. The safe jumper that BILLY CUCKOO is meant taking the final fence was a formality and, apart from wandering a little on the run in, victory was assured.
Last season, BILLY CUCKOO was on my alert list as being a game front-runner he's apt to trade very low in-running even if he doesn't win his races. I took him off my list this after several poor runs culminating in his dire seasonal opener when I thought he may have lost his enthusiasm for the game. As it was, yesterday he was reluctant to start and needed a good kick and a slap with the "persuader" to get him to jump-off. I thought he was a 120-125 horse last season and, being able to handle soft/heavy ground, he should be in the frame a few more times in the coming months.
We have a couple of meetings today at Catterick and Ludlow. Catterick provides little entertainment, but the Beginners' Chase at 1:50 has some interesting entries in Holywell, Barrakilla and 2012 Cheltenham Festival winner Son Of Flicka. This sort of race is not the type I enjoy having a wager in, but the 3-mile handicap chase at 2:50 is. Unfortunately, early odds on this race do not indicate much in the way of value. Last years winner Nodform Richard is interesting, but he won this with the benefit of a "pipe-opener" last season. The race-fav Categorical is well exposed having run 43 chase races, and he seems best on soft/heavy ground. Sporadic chaser Everaard would be respected if the race were on soft ground and, with O'Callaghan Strand being untried beyond 2m5f except as a hurdler and having real stamina doubts, there's only Honest John and Noble Witness left. Of that pair, Honest John has not had much luck in-running recently but has won a 3m2f hurdle at Catterick and a couple of 3-mile chases. There is also no stamina doubts about Noble Witness, who won a chase over 3m1f at Towcester in May. Noble Witness is the 14/1 outsider of this 6-runner race and, with so many doubts over the others, he could be worth a small wager. As Billy Cuckoo showed yesterday, there is more to reading form than sticking to the obvious.
Ludlow has a great meeting for a Wednesday, with a couple of Class 3 handicaps. The 3m1f & 110yd chase at 2:10 has a competitive look about it and there is sure to be a good early pace from Pickamus. Personally, I think that horse doesn't stay 3-mile-plus, so he's unlikely to be the winner. Talkonthestreet has a lot to prove as a chaser after 3 lacklustre runs in this sphere, and even his recent hurdle race left an air of disappointment. You can never tell what sort of mood Charingworth will be in, and so that brings me to the likes of Faultless Feelings who is unexposed as a chaser yet has put in a couple of decent efforts recently. As for Union Jack D'Ycy from Venetia Williams, I'd like to see how this horse jumps a fence first before having a wager, as Venetia does not school her novice chasers at home – they learn to jump at the track! For me that leaves Cootehill. He loves Ludlow, and always runs a game and honest race. He is a bit one-paced at the business end, but with a strong early pace set by (non-stayer) Pickamus, there might not be much left in the tank of a few of these come the run-in and Cootehill may plod on to victory. Certainly, odds of 10/1 make Cootehill a prime eachway wager candidate.
No selections today as I like to wager on my horse alert runners, and there are none out today.

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