Just a couple of meetings over the jumps today, at Southwell and Sedgefield. The meeting at Sedgefield looks poor. It is very hard to get excited about a class 5 novice handicap hurdle in which only 1 of the 12 runners has had a recent win (Ravi River @ 25/1 in the 2:30). The other races at the meeting are in a similar vein.
At Southwell, we have an alert runner – LAST SHOT in the 12:45. Unfortunately, this Venetia Williams trained horse is currently 6/4, and those odds are too short for me. In the same race, if Billy Cuckoo was back to the form he showed last season, he could be interesting. He is a confirmed front runner and quite a game one at that, so this tight Southwell circuit will play to his strengths. Billy Cuckoo did need a run last season but his seasonal debut 6-weeks ago was so dire only his owner could fancy him today. Current odds of 14/1 are tempting tho' for a "back-to-lay" play on the exchanges as, with only 7 runners going to post, a place-only wager may be a bit optimistic.
The next race has a better profile as finding horses that can truly stay 3-miles is always a good long term policy. There is only one horse in this novice hurdle with proven stamina "under-rules" over 3-mile, and that is MIDNIGHT MACARENA who happens to be a C&D winner. There is a lot of support for the fav Sego Success, but he's only won over 3-mile on the point-to-point field. His full brother did not win beyond 2m3f, which suggests this trip may stretch him.
I managed to have a successful small-odds win double on Sunday with Tutchec and Balbriggan, and LAST SHOT and MIDNIGHT MACARENA may be another. I'll not be putting this up as a wager, but I'll be having a £10 win double on the pair at odds of 6/4 and 4/1 with the likes of William Hill. If they both win then I can take the girlfriend out for a steak.
Still no movement with the ratings on the Racing Post website. It is extremely frustrating for me as my modus operandi if finding horses who I think have been overlooked or under-rated.
We are now in the winter months and it is likely that some of the weekday blogs may be a bit brief as I intend to post my blogs at least an hour before the 1st race of the day (or thereabouts). If nothing else, I want to give readers at least an hour to get their wager on, if there is a wager recommended. I think that is only fair.
No selections today.
Wouldn't you know it! BILLY CUCKOO virtually made all to win at an SP of 12/1. The pace he set was too strong for the market leaders Last Shot and Moorlands Jack, with the latter exhausted before 2-out and falling. Just shows that you should not ignore intuition when betting on horses.ReplyDelete