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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 11 December 2013

Unlucky yet again!

Yet another 2nd for the blog selection as FIRM ORDER – dropped out early and then brought smoothly thru' the small field into 2nd place 3-out when he looked the most likely winner – came to challenge the long-term leader Pete The Feat at the final fence whereupon the leader gave him a bump as he jumped, hampering our selection. FIRM ORDER was unable to get back on terms on the run-in and went down by under 2-lengths. This trip is probably at the extreme of the stamina limitation of FIRM ORDER and I think that, without the final fence bump from the eventual winner, he'd have taken the race.  We have to feel a bit aggrieved at the turn of events in this race.
It was even more painful as FIRM ORDER had drifted out to an SP of 6/1. Knowing he'd drop out early, as he had at Sandown LTO, I had another £5 on in-running when he went to 14.00 on the exchanges and altho' FIRM ORDER never went odds-on in-running; he did trade at well under 3.00. A word for the other horse-alert runner ON TREND and that is that this horse clearly needs plenty of give in the ground to show his best form. His day will come: as I wrote yesterday he needs it "soft/heavy as all his best form has been on ground with plenty of depth, and a right-handed track".
My other alert runner VALID POINT jumped well-enough but was outclassed. This race was also a good lesson in why it does not pay to wager on odds-on chances in jump racing. The odds-on fav African Gold came to win the race at the 3rd-last fence going upsides the leader, but missed a stride (being a novice chaser) and promptly walked thru' the fence going down in the process. He was very lucky he wasn't very badly hurt.
It is a fairly ordinary day of racing today with a couple of meetings at Leicester and Hexham. We have several alert list runners, who all are running at Leicester. In the 12:40 we have SPEEDY BRUERE, in the 2:10 it is BALBRIGGAN, and in the 3:10 it is our "unlucky" old friend, FOXCUB.
Firstly FOXCUB, who has today's trip in his favour, comes here in tip-top form having looked like being a runaway winner for followers of the blog LTO till he skewed the final flight and tipped his jockey out the side door. He has been raised 8lb for that effort to OR127 and I think he's capable of defying that re-rating. What worries me more is that the ground today has some give in it being good-to-soft. I think he should win this today, providing the ground is not too soft, as it looks a weak race on paper apart from the mysterious French import Garde Ville running for David Pipe. Garde Ville receives 19lb from FOXCUB and really is the spanner in the works of this race. At odds of 4/1, it hurts me to write it, but I think there's not enough value for a win wager on FOXCUB.
BALBRIGGAN should win the 2:10 as he looked a well-handicapped winner LTO over C&D and carries only a 7lb penalty for that win, effectively racing off OR122 today. I think he's an OR135+ chaser in the making, possibly OR140+ as he is only a 6yo. Unfortunately, current odds are only 6/5 and that is too short for me to recommend as a wager.
SPEEDY BRUERE is more interesting in the 12:40. This horse was chasing last season ending the season on OR123. Today's trip and ground are perfect for him and he has his first hurdle race in the UK today, so is completely unexposed in this sphere. He was off the track from August 2010 till 16th December last year and this very lightly race 7yo could be one for the forecasts in this 7-runner race. The hot-fav is the Paul Nicholls horse Silsol who is expected to win today, but the 2nd fav Algernon Pazham will need to improve on his form to-date and prove his stamina for this trip to be in the shake-up. SPEEDY BRUERE will be prominent thru'out making this a proper race and, providing he's fit enough, he could have them all off the bridle in the last half-mile. Odds of 12/1 cannot be ignored and he is an eachway selection.
Leicester 12:40 SPEEDY BRUERE, £5 eachway @ 12/1 (available generally, choose BOG bookie)

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