Yesterday, I pondered long and hard over FOXCUB before deciding odds of 4/1 were not value. The horse completely blew those doubts away, romping home by 5-lengths with the field well strung out behind him. Even the mysterious French import (which was the main reason for my indecision) Garde Ville, running for David Pipe and in receipt of 19lb from FOXCUB, never got a look-in. The best decisions are always made in hindsight and I was being over-cautious. Then again BALBRIGGAN, who I thought was a shoo-in for the earlier chase handicap, had nothing left to give once relinquishing the lead 4-out and finsihed 3rd of the 4-runners.
Sometimes it would be a lot easier for me not to be writing the blog, as there is a responsibility to post wagers with a better chance of winning than their odds suggest. Although the blog remains in handsome profit for the jumps season to date, this recent run of results has taken the edge off my confidence. I'm sure 10 days ago I'd have had no problem making FOXCUB a solid win wager but I've gone a couple of weeks now without a winner. Yesterday evening I could not see why I'd looked this gift-horse in the mouth and rejected it.
Yesterday's blog selection SPEEDY BRUERE came in a distant 3rd behind the two market leaders. It was a case of either not being fit enough or good enough but, at the odds of 12/1 in a 7-runner race and with possibly 4 of those not being capable of being involved, it was a gamble worth taking that the selection would be in the 1st-2 home. SPEEDY BRUERE did well last season as a novice chaser and can do well again, on the back of this run, when returning to chasing.
We have a good 2-day meeting at Cheltenham on Friday and Saturday, and there looks like being some wagering opportunities coming up. I also have my office Christmas party on Friday evening, so It is likely I'll be writing my Saturday blog on Friday afternoon as I doubt I'll have the concentration to do any meaningful form-study on Saturday morning.
There are no alert runners entered today, but we do have a great meeting at Huntingdon with the feature race being the Peterborough Chase over 2m4f & 110 yards. The market leaders are Captain Chris and Riverside Theatre, but both of those are having their seasonal debut today. Of the pair, if they are both at their best then – at the weights – Riverside Theatre has a huge chance as he's in-receipt of 10lb from Captain Chris. The 6yo Module should be involved in the finish if his improvement is confirmed today – and he stays this trip. One who could surprise today in this is Ghizao who stays this trip and acts going right-handed, and (based on the form of his 3rd to Cue Card and Captain Chris at Ascot in February) could be bang there at the finish if he's fit enough. Given the way the Paul Nicholls horses are running, that may well be taken as read. An eachway wager on Captain Chris @ 4/1 with Stan James who are quarter-odds 1st & 2nd for the place would seem the most logical bet.
No recommended wagers from me today.
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