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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 15 October 2016

It may be Champions Day - but my focus is on Stratford

Yesterday's blog was full of profitable pointers (Throthethatch won @ 11/8; Present Man won at 11/8) but with the main selection Princeton Royale coming home 2nd after the major market movement that I predicted happened (SP was 3/1 from 11/2) we are still looking for our first winner of the season after 4 wagers.  As one of my readers observed - if we continue wagering on 3/1 chances at odds of 11/2 then (long-term) we will be in profit.

It's not so bad though, as our losing wager yesterday was the first to entirely wipe out the stake.  My post-race thoughts were that as my reading of the form envisaged it being just a 2-horse race, perhaps I should have suggested a straight forecast wager on the main danger (Keltus) to beat my selection.  That would have paid £11.57 to a £1 stake - and that's food for thought going forward.  This, if my regular readers need any reminding, is why I write the narrative and don't just put the time of a race, the name of a horse, and the minimum odds to take.  Please read the narrative, consider my opinion, and marry it to your own risk profile.

Onto Saturday, and what a busy day it is with a very entertaining flat meeting at Ascot as the headline act.  But we are not interested in overblown flat-racing. Our game is the jumps, and we have 3 meetings to contemplate at Stratford, Market Rasen and Ffos Las. 

The 3:15pm at Stratford is a 2m5f handicap chase in which I think there is a lot going for MOUNTAIN KING as he has the best form in the book and has the stamina to stay up to 3-miles. He ran on mainly soft ground last season which did him no favours, and transferring to Gordon Elliot plus racing on "good" ground rewarded him with a win LTO. I think when he's at his best he will be rated 145+ so with just a 3lb adjustment for his latest win he will race off OR136.  I fully expected him to be 2/1 this morning but there has been a move for Top Cat Henry and I'm not sure that is justified based on his racing history even though he ran with promise LTO.  As such you can get 7/2 about MOUNTAIN KING and I think that is great value. For me, he has more to fear from Mont Royale as Top Cat Henry wasn't finding much LTO and was already being rousted along when he was badly impeded and brought-down at the 2nd-last fence.

The Welsh Champion Hurdle is an interesting race at Ffos Las at 4:10pm as I reckon it is more open than the betting suggests. Welsh Shadow will need to show improvement to win off his current handicap mark, and I'm not sure Garde La Victoire (even though he's on my alert list) will be capable of winning this race as he reverts to hurdling from a decent novice chase season last winter. I do like the look of Tommy Silver, who is very unexposed; and also Henderson's Cardinal Walter who looked a potential top class novice hurdler in 2014-15 but missed the 2015 Cheltenham Festival through injury.  If he is fully recovered then he will make a mockery of his 9/1 odds (he's 10/1 with Stan James) but it is a risky proposition as when last seen on the track he was tailed-off.

Just the one wager today,

Stratford 3:15pm MOUNTAIN KING, £15 win @ 7/2 (available generally)

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