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Saturday 8 October 2016

Jump racing on Saturday - Perfect!

No selection yesterday but Young Dillon ran a cracker to be 2nd in the 3m2f hurdle race at Exeter.  Unfortunately, he was beaten by The Romford Pele who I thought would stay the trip but was (possibly) badly handicapped. How wrong was I? Clearly, the Rebecca Curtis stable have sorted out last seasons problems and her horses are looking well handicapped after a season of poor form.

Onto today and what a meeting at Chepstow. The 6-runner novice chase at 3:15pm is a good place to start and trainer Henderson, who won this last year, has 2 or the 6 runners. Theinval looks to be out of his depth despite having the most chasing experience, but he will ensure a good pace for Hammersly Lake. He may be an 8yo novice chaser, but he won easily LTO and in a good time too.  The race fav is the 4yo Clan Des Obeaux sent by Paul Nicholls but this will be his chase debut. Even so, he only carries 10st3lb and gets at least 11lb from the others and 16lb from the Henderson pair and Flying Angel, who also won LTO. I do think novices who have jumped a fence on the track are the best ones to rely on in these races, but Rock The Kasbah, who is having his chase debut, is on my alert list and a horse who could be a top class chaser. The other horse on 11st is Our Kaempfer but I think he may find this race too quick for him and he will come into his own over a longer trip. If I had to place a wager, I think it would be on Imperial Cup winner FLYING ANGEL at 3/1 with some bookies, but this could be an exciting race.

I've spent a lot of time looking at the 3-mile handicap chase run at 5pm.  I sent out an "early pointer" email yesterday evening on my selection as I am expecting the odds to contract today.  The "good" ground at Chepstow is the key as most of this field will be wanting the ground softer (in some cases a lot softer) to be seen at their best form.  Paul Nicholls loves this meeting and he sends the fav for this race in Southfield Vic. To ensure a good racing weight, he also sends top-weight Unioniste to keep the weight carried by Southfield Vic at a reasonable 11st 2lb. While I think this horse holds a decent chance, his performance LTO while winning was not strong enough to be a strong favourite in this race. I think the trip will find out Henryville, and won't be long enough for Fox Appeal who looks to have slowed down and lost his pace.  Indian Stream is a horse I respect in this race but, again, I think this trip may stretch him - he won't be far away though.

The horse I am on is one we had some success with last season and who, in my opinion, should be rated OR145 on what he's shown already - A GOOD SKIN.  He runs off OR139 which is just 1lb above the rating he had when 2nd in the Kim Muir on "good" ground at Cheltenham last March. He is a positive, good jumper of a fence, who will stay the trip well and enjoy the ground.  He's also happy running in big, competitive fields. Last night I told those on the email list to take the 16/1 eachway, and his best odds now are 14/1.

I'd get on quickly at 14/1 as it would not surprise me to see him start at under 8/1 - in fact I'd have him joint fav with Indian Stream at 6/1.

Chepstow 5:00 - A GOOD SKIN, £5 eachway & £5 win @ 16/1 (odds advised to those on the email list on Friday evening)

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