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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Monday 10 October 2016

Weekend Look-back 8th/9th October

What a great weekend of horseracing - and how close were we to pulling off a major coup!
Both selections were the subject of major gambles, with Saturdays wager on A GOOD SKIN starting off on Friday evening at 16/1, opening on Saturday morning at 14/1 and ending up at 9/1 - that's a serious wedge. But Sunday's wager was even stronger. When posting the blog to the on the email list I had already just missed 8/1, then when I posted the blog online the best odds were 7/1 (from 15/2). By the time the race went off the selection DOUBLE SHUFFLE was 7/2.

Quite what happened with Double Shuffle about 6-furlongs out from the finish I'm not sure.  His jockey was hard at work, and he was losing ground on the leaders and looked a beaten horse. I thought that perhaps his trainers opinion that he would improve for the run possibly should have been he needed the race! As they jumped the 3rd-last fence I lost my internet connection so had no idea of what happened next till I saw the result about 10 mins later. To me it looked like the leaders had all gone off too quick and tied-up jumping the last couple of fences, while Double Shuffle kept on running at the same pace and stayed on strong. He only failed by a head on the line and, as he jumped both the 4th and 3rd last fences without much cajoling from his rider (who like all of us thought the horse was well beaten at the time), it makes you wonder how far he may have won by had his jockey kept pushing and shoving.

Still, so far I've advised 3 wagers this season, and all have finished in the place money with 2 x 3rds and a 2nd - we are knocking on the door of a big one! I can feel it coming.

The other horse I wrote about on Sunday was most disappointing - Arpege D'Alene. 
His trainer Paul Nicholls had 3 winners at Chepstow on Sunday, so it's unlikely fitness was an issue, and the horse was jumping well.  With 4 fences to go his jockey asked him to go on as the others quickened off what look a modest gallop, and the horse found nothing - he clearly wasn't enjoying the experience. Arpege D'Alene is a talented horse, possibly a 155+ 3-mile hurdler and you don't find many of those. it would be no surprise to me to see him return to hurdles, but I wont be wagering on him over fences until he's proven his worth in that sphere.

Double Ross was last at his best this time last year, and yesterday contested the veterans chase off a rating 6lbs below that he raced off when 4th in the Paddy Power handicap chase won by Annacotty last November. Three miles stretches his stamina, and he looked vulnerable after jumping the final fence yesterday, but managed to hold off the challenge of Loose Chips. This may be the best we see of Double Ross, and on reflection I was more impressed with Loose Chips as he usually improves for racing through the season. Also, he will enjoy the softer ground when it comes and, as I expected after he won at Kempton in April over 3-mile, he could prove a money-spinner in these veteran chase races.

We have a quiet few days so it's likely we wont have another potential selection till towards the end of the week. 

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