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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Monday 3 October 2016

Monday 3rd October

What a tremendous race the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe turned out to be, and what a result for Aidan O'Brien.  As I wrote in yesterdays blog - sent out to those on the email list at 10am - eventual winner FOUND was in the form of her life this season, looking a better horse now than when she was desperately unlucky in running in last year's Arc when she came home in 9th yet was beaten only 5-lengths.

This year, she had a clear run through and the acceleration she showed last month in the Irish Champion Stakes took her into an unassailable lead inside the final quarter-mile and she only had to run to her known ability to win; she didn't have to show any improvement and I rate her at 120. The proximity of the French Group 2 horse the 6yo Siljan's Saga who was beaten only 4-lengths into 4th keeps the winners rating within the realms of reality.  As it happens, Siljan's Saga was running in her 3rd Arc de Triomphe and this was her best finishing position yet (she's previously run 12th in 2014, and 8th in 2015). The runner-up Highland Reel ran up to his official rating of OR120 as well, 4yo seems to not yet have reached his pinnacle of ability. The disappointment of the race was the fav Postponed and he never looked like winning - but he has been on the go since March winning twice at Meydan. Perhaps, with the benefit of hindsight, his season should have had a longer break in the summer and he should have missed the Coronation Cup at Epsom in June and gone straight to York for the International Stakes in August.

Onto other racing, Simply Ned looked very unlucky to fail to concede 25lb to Theflyingportrait at Kelso when beaten just a neck. The result suggests Simply Ned retains his ability at around 155 but, given his official rating of OR158 he will find it tricky to win races in either handicap or graded company.

There's no jump racing till Wednesday now so the next blog will be out then.

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