Welcome to the World of Horseracing

Record of the blog selections

Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.

THIS IS A BOOKIES ADVERT FREE ZONE

There are NO affiliate links on this site to bookies from whom the author receives over 30% of the stakes from your lost wagers.ising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.
Showing posts with label Sir Mark Prescott. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sir Mark Prescott. Show all posts

Tuesday, 18 October 2011

The BHA vs PJA

The 359th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but it was an informative day for horseracing.

Firstly, many thanks to the 21 readers of the blog who ticked one of the reaction boxes. According to my stats page, yesterday’s page was viewed (and hopefully read) by 41 visitors. There were a total of 499 “hits” on the blog, of which 287 came from 2 websites (one in the USA and one in Vietnam). This couple of websites have been flooding my blog with “pings” for about 3 weeks and I don’t know why or how to stop it. The balance of 171 “hits” is the usual background noise of the internet – search engines (I assume) pinging the blog when one of the labels is mentioned in a search on google or yahoo etc.

The BHA (British Horseracing Authority) met the PJA (Professional Jockeys Association) yesterday to discuss the implications of the whip rules. I expect that the whip rules are here to stay and there will be little (if any) respite. What I would expect there to be is a re-dressing of the penalties for infringements. Something along the lines of:-
Whip-use +1 (ie, 6 strikes in final furlong): jky caution & fine of 50% of riding fee/winnings;
Whip-use +2: Jockey gets 2-day ban & 75% fine;
Whip-use +3: Jockey gets 3-day ban & 100% fine;
Whip-use +4 and over: Jockey gets a day for every over-use of the whip.

At the moment, I feel the punishments levied have been draconian and unless the punishment is tempered then there will be trouble ahead.

The jump racing at Exeter is poorly attended today, probably due to the good-to-firm going. There is only one horse from my Alert List running, and it is CAPTAIN DASH in the 3:40 (won on Friday in a canter). There is a front-runner in the race who could set a fast early pace - Run Along Boy - and he may take some catching. It is a pity there are only 6 running as the rank outsider - Consulate - looked like he was recapturing some form LTO and he'll be staying-on. All-in-all, I cannot have CAPTAIN DASH at 13/8 as I think he’s more of a 9/4 chance. Being a hold-up horse early-on, he will likely trade much longer in-running and I may leave a small wager on after the off (say at 9.00) and see if it’s taken.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Thursday, 26 May 2011

A day of "if's & but's"

This is the 288th edition of the daily blog page.

No selections yesterday. Instead, I spent much of the day going thru’ the results pull-out from the Weekender and updating my Horse Alert List (see adjacent page). I reckon I have found some crackers there, mainly focused on several exceptionally competitive races. Why not take a look and find out which horse I think one of Newmarket’s handicap “kings” may be lining-up for the Ebor Handicap.

Plenty of racing today on the Flat, with meetings at Ayr, Brighton and Folkestone this afternoon, but the highlights of the day are the meetings at Newcastle this evening and particularly at Sandown.
I can happily give the meeting at Ayr a miss.

Brighton has an interesting race at 3:10 with a ”dark-horse” from Sir Mark Prescott FINAL LIBERATION who is bred to be better than OR55 (a lot better, as its dam is a half-sister to a Group 3 winner) and he holds an entry for another Class 6 h’cap next Tuesday. Sir Mark’s multiple entries always puts me on the alert. George Baker has his only runner of the day in this in Jack’s Revenge which should ensure some decent odds about FINAL LIBERATION who is 3/1 as I write – don’t take less. An old friend of mine PHLUKE runs in the 4:10 and he only just failed LTO on his seasonal debut over C&D. The old-timer can only hold his form for a few races these days and he should give a good account of himself today here. I would not take 100/30 tho’, and I’d be looking for 5/1 as he only has the one style of running – flat out with nothing in reserve.

If Sir Michael Stoute (strike rate of 43%, 6 wins from 14 runners) sends a horse to Folkestone, take note. However, even I will pass-over Adone in the 4:30 as this race is filled with “dodge-pots”. The rest of this meeting is ordinary.

From one end of the country to the other, and in the 6:55 DUBAI DYNAMO reappears with a 6lb penalty and, tho’ I don’t think the penalty will stop him, at odds of just 7/4 I cannot recommend him, especially with a horse with the potential of XILERATOR in the race. His half-bro’s Inxile (OR108) and Tax Free (OR112) were very talented and XILERATOR has only run 6 times. His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential and on OR84 he looks well treated. At odds of 10/1, he looks the value wager (eachway).

In the Class 3, 6-furlong h’cap at 8:35, I thought Dickie Le Daviour had a great chance of following-up his LTO win as he’ll get the strong pace he needs – but this race has a couple who may upset him. Noodle Blue Boy loves Newcastle (a record of 212122 at this track) and he’ll be fit to do well today; he’s better than a 8/1 chance. Also, Silver Rime has his 1st attempt at a trip less than 7-furlongs in this and he ran a cracker here LTO when 3rd. He also should not be 12/1.

At Sandown, the Henry II Stakes is a weak Group 2 in my opinion. I think Blue Bajan was flattered LTO in the Yorkshire Cup and he’s not OR111. Akmal is best on GF going, it’s already “good” and he won’t be helped by further rain today. Nehaam is an interesting runner as he was last seen when 2nd to Akmal at Ascot in 2009 in the Group 3 Jockey Club Cup. We know from last season that Gosden can bring a stayer back to life from a break, but even Samuel (who went on to win Doncaster Cup) needed a couple of runs. Thing is, I don’t think the fav Holberg is a true 2-miler of a horse, and so where do we look now? Well, AKMAL won this race last year when allowed to dictate the pace, and I think he’ll do the same again tonight. At 5/1 (Corals), he looks the value wager. The rest of the card is a cracker, and I will be paying particular attention to the final race, the Whitsun Handicap over a mile as this will be run at a helluva pace (or should be) and it will set the race up for a finisher, and I like the look of Hughie Morrison’s NAZREEF but, with only 15 going to post, I will be watching only.

Selections:
There are too many “if’s & but’s” today, and so I am going for a previous selection to recoup, and that’s AKMAL, who should be fit enough today to do the business.

Sandown 7:05, AKMAL, ½pt win @ 5/1 (Corals & Sportingodds)
Total = ½pt staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Wednesday, 25 May 2011

Tremendous 6/1 winner yesterday

This is the 287th edition of the daily blog page.

We hit the back of the net with DUBAI DYNAMO @ 6/1 yesterday who won with a tonne in-hand. I’ve been following this horse since July last year when he ran in (what was) the Bunbury Cup off a rating of OR99. He won yesterday off OR85, so he has plenty of scope for a follow-up.
But, what a write-up on the race.
Of Snow Bay (finished 3rd), I wrote “won’t be far away”; and of Bea Remembered (finished 4th), I wrote “she looks better than a 16/1 chance”; and of Lord Aeryn (finished 2nd) I wrote “is no value at 3/1”. Just 4 horses mentioned in the race and they finished 1,2,3,4 – and I selected the winner!

DUBAI DYNAMO won in the fashion of a Stewart Simpson (“Always Back Winners”) horse, showing a tremendous turn-of-foot. I’ve been following this horse since it ran in the Bunbury Cup (type his name into my blog search facility) and he’s entered to run at Newcastle tomorrow (Thursday) plus he holds entries for Friday and Saturday.

I can’t say the same thing about the other blog selection, FRANCISCAN. I really thought Luca Cumani had a decent one here (and perhaps he still does, but there’s plenty of work required) but, other than stay-on, it was very disappointing. It looks like I read too much into his win at Haydock back in April – he’s out of the Notebook.

I led with a headline on Sir Mark Prescott and, yesterday, he did me proud. He sent out 3 horses, to 3 different tracks, and the only one beaten was that ridden by his stable jockey Seb Sanders! At Ripon, Motivado won the race contested by FRANCISCAN (but he did not look particularly exciting), and at Chepstow the horse I described as “bred to run in the Derby” - KEPLER’S LAW – won in a canter at 5/2 (he was 4/1 in the morning when I wrote about him). I said he was worth a speculative wager, and perhaps I should have made him a selection (I certainly would if I’d known Motivado was going to win at Ripon). I will be adding KEPLER’S LAW to my alert list immediately as he is far better than his OR57 rating (full bro’ Bashkirov is still in training in Ireland, was btn less than 5-lengths in the Irish Derby). His half-bro’ Summitville was 2nd in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and rated OR109.

When it comes to wagering on the horses, patience is a virtue, and you should never be in a rush to place a bet. Today’s meeting at Ayr (on the flat) is one I can happily pass-over. The meeting this evening at Beverley is more interesting. Frankie Dettori rides Solicitor who won over C&D last July. He holds a few other entries this weekend, and if he’s fit enough then he’ll take some beating today which will prime him for a follow-up under a penalty.

The 2yo fillies race at 7:30 is one to watch as Tim Easterby won this race several times in the early “noughties” and his QUEENS REVENGE (owned by respected judge Henry Ponsonby) could be the best of these here today.

No selections at the moment, but if I decide on one this evening at Beverley, then I will post a supplementary blog later this afternoon before 5pm. So, please return to this blog after 5pm to see if there is a selection.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Tuesday, 24 May 2011

Sir Mark Prescott up to his tricks again

This is the 286th edition of the daily blog page.

No selections yesterday, but it was an interesting day’s racing, and my followers on twitter will know that I layed the odds-on fav in the fillies h’cap at Carlisle at 3:30, Monicalew. I couldn’t work out why she was odds-on and thought she should have been at much longer odds (despite it looking a weak race) and she duly came 6th having been a beaten horse nearly half-a-mile out. You don’t only have to find winners in this game to make a profit. In the race before that, the lightly-raced 4yo filly Epernay won well despite looking very green. She looks like she could handle another couple of furlongs easily; even so, she is entered to run tomorrow back over a mile.
The highlight of the day was the 6-furlong Class 1 (Listed) race at Windsor, which was won by Bated Breath. This horse has yet to stop improving and this was a career-best effort which I rated 118. Runner-up Triple Aspect (who won this race last year) ran right up to his best, and Libranno in 3rd did the same. What was most eye-catching for me was the run by MONSIEUR CHEVALIER who was an exciting 2yo and winner of the Super Sprint and Molecombe. Off for 596 days with a cracked pelvis, he was full of running with just over a furlong to go, but Richard Hughes was easy on him and when a gap appeared in the final furlong, he slipped thru’ it without any inducement and I reckon he easily could have beaten his stablemate Libranno and taken 3rd with a stronger ride. He will likely go to Royal Ascot next and he could be one to be on there.

Today is a fairly ordinary day, although there is a decent Class 3 handicap over a mile at Ripon. This race has gone to some decent types recently, tho’ I note that it is 6 years since it went to a horse aged 4yo or younger. The fav is Lord Aeryn, but I reckon he is over-rated and is no value at 3/1. Ruth Carr won this last year with Charlie Cool and she sends DUBAI DYNAMO today, and he’s in top form. At 6/1, he looks value in this. Snow Bay won’t be far away, but one who looks interesting is Brian Meehan’s BEA REMEMBERED. She wasn’t beaten far in a Listed race at the Curragh last summer which was run in a fast time, and she looks better than a 16/1 chance if she comes on for her recent stable debut.

One from the Notebook (see adjacent page) is FRANCISCAN who runs in the 3:10 at Ripon. This half-bro to top horse Forte Dei Marmi (who improved from OR73 to OR111 as 3yo) has a long-stride and did not enjoy his outing at Windsor LTO; Ripon will suit him better. The opposition does not look strong in this, tho’ Sir Mark Prescott has a runner in it in Motivado who could be on an interesting mark if he is an improver. But for me, FRANCISCAN running off OR70 is the one to beat, tho’ I would not want to take any less than his current odds of 4/1.

Chepstow is the other Flat race meeting today, and it looks uninspiring apart from the 4:50 which is a class 6 h’cap over 12-furlongs. In it, Sir Mark Prescott runs a horse bred to run in the Derby, KEPLER’S LAW. In fact, his full brother Bashkirov ran in the Irish Derby of 2008, and his half-bro’ Summitville (OR109) was a consistent and regular Group race runner (2nd in Group 1, Sun Chariot Stakes). So then, what is this horse doing at Chepstow running off OR57? Well, he’ll need to be on his toes to beat Westhaven who won 3-days ago, but at 4/1 he looks worthy of a speculative punt.

Selections
Ripon 3:10, FRANCISCAN, 1pt win @ 4/1 (available generally and take best odds guaranteed)
Ripon 3:40, DUBAI DYNAMO, ½pt win @ 6/1 (available generally and take best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad