A day of "if's & but's"

This is the 288th edition of the daily blog page.

No selections yesterday. Instead, I spent much of the day going thru’ the results pull-out from the Weekender and updating my Horse Alert List (see adjacent page). I reckon I have found some crackers there, mainly focused on several exceptionally competitive races. Why not take a look and find out which horse I think one of Newmarket’s handicap “kings” may be lining-up for the Ebor Handicap.

Plenty of racing today on the Flat, with meetings at Ayr, Brighton and Folkestone this afternoon, but the highlights of the day are the meetings at Newcastle this evening and particularly at Sandown.
I can happily give the meeting at Ayr a miss.

Brighton has an interesting race at 3:10 with a ”dark-horse” from Sir Mark Prescott FINAL LIBERATION who is bred to be better than OR55 (a lot better, as its dam is a half-sister to a Group 3 winner) and he holds an entry for another Class 6 h’cap next Tuesday. Sir Mark’s multiple entries always puts me on the alert. George Baker has his only runner of the day in this in Jack’s Revenge which should ensure some decent odds about FINAL LIBERATION who is 3/1 as I write – don’t take less. An old friend of mine PHLUKE runs in the 4:10 and he only just failed LTO on his seasonal debut over C&D. The old-timer can only hold his form for a few races these days and he should give a good account of himself today here. I would not take 100/30 tho’, and I’d be looking for 5/1 as he only has the one style of running – flat out with nothing in reserve.

If Sir Michael Stoute (strike rate of 43%, 6 wins from 14 runners) sends a horse to Folkestone, take note. However, even I will pass-over Adone in the 4:30 as this race is filled with “dodge-pots”. The rest of this meeting is ordinary.

From one end of the country to the other, and in the 6:55 DUBAI DYNAMO reappears with a 6lb penalty and, tho’ I don’t think the penalty will stop him, at odds of just 7/4 I cannot recommend him, especially with a horse with the potential of XILERATOR in the race. His half-bro’s Inxile (OR108) and Tax Free (OR112) were very talented and XILERATOR has only run 6 times. His close 2nd over 7-furlongs at Newbury last September showed he had potential and on OR84 he looks well treated. At odds of 10/1, he looks the value wager (eachway).

In the Class 3, 6-furlong h’cap at 8:35, I thought Dickie Le Daviour had a great chance of following-up his LTO win as he’ll get the strong pace he needs – but this race has a couple who may upset him. Noodle Blue Boy loves Newcastle (a record of 212122 at this track) and he’ll be fit to do well today; he’s better than a 8/1 chance. Also, Silver Rime has his 1st attempt at a trip less than 7-furlongs in this and he ran a cracker here LTO when 3rd. He also should not be 12/1.

At Sandown, the Henry II Stakes is a weak Group 2 in my opinion. I think Blue Bajan was flattered LTO in the Yorkshire Cup and he’s not OR111. Akmal is best on GF going, it’s already “good” and he won’t be helped by further rain today. Nehaam is an interesting runner as he was last seen when 2nd to Akmal at Ascot in 2009 in the Group 3 Jockey Club Cup. We know from last season that Gosden can bring a stayer back to life from a break, but even Samuel (who went on to win Doncaster Cup) needed a couple of runs. Thing is, I don’t think the fav Holberg is a true 2-miler of a horse, and so where do we look now? Well, AKMAL won this race last year when allowed to dictate the pace, and I think he’ll do the same again tonight. At 5/1 (Corals), he looks the value wager. The rest of the card is a cracker, and I will be paying particular attention to the final race, the Whitsun Handicap over a mile as this will be run at a helluva pace (or should be) and it will set the race up for a finisher, and I like the look of Hughie Morrison’s NAZREEF but, with only 15 going to post, I will be watching only.

Selections:
There are too many “if’s & but’s” today, and so I am going for a previous selection to recoup, and that’s AKMAL, who should be fit enough today to do the business.

Sandown 7:05, AKMAL, ½pt win @ 5/1 (Corals & Sportingodds)
Total = ½pt staked

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