This is the 286th edition of the daily blog page.
No selections yesterday, but it was an interesting day’s racing, and my followers on twitter will know that I layed the odds-on fav in the fillies h’cap at Carlisle at 3:30, Monicalew. I couldn’t work out why she was odds-on and thought she should have been at much longer odds (despite it looking a weak race) and she duly came 6th having been a beaten horse nearly half-a-mile out. You don’t only have to find winners in this game to make a profit. In the race before that, the lightly-raced 4yo filly Epernay won well despite looking very green. She looks like she could handle another couple of furlongs easily; even so, she is entered to run tomorrow back over a mile.
The highlight of the day was the 6-furlong Class 1 (Listed) race at Windsor, which was won by Bated Breath. This horse has yet to stop improving and this was a career-best effort which I rated 118. Runner-up Triple Aspect (who won this race last year) ran right up to his best, and Libranno in 3rd did the same. What was most eye-catching for me was the run by MONSIEUR CHEVALIER who was an exciting 2yo and winner of the Super Sprint and Molecombe. Off for 596 days with a cracked pelvis, he was full of running with just over a furlong to go, but Richard Hughes was easy on him and when a gap appeared in the final furlong, he slipped thru’ it without any inducement and I reckon he easily could have beaten his stablemate Libranno and taken 3rd with a stronger ride. He will likely go to Royal Ascot next and he could be one to be on there.
Today is a fairly ordinary day, although there is a decent Class 3 handicap over a mile at Ripon. This race has gone to some decent types recently, tho’ I note that it is 6 years since it went to a horse aged 4yo or younger. The fav is Lord Aeryn, but I reckon he is over-rated and is no value at 3/1. Ruth Carr won this last year with Charlie Cool and she sends DUBAI DYNAMO today, and he’s in top form. At 6/1, he looks value in this. Snow Bay won’t be far away, but one who looks interesting is Brian Meehan’s BEA REMEMBERED. She wasn’t beaten far in a Listed race at the Curragh last summer which was run in a fast time, and she looks better than a 16/1 chance if she comes on for her recent stable debut.
One from the Notebook (see adjacent page) is FRANCISCAN who runs in the 3:10 at Ripon. This half-bro to top horse Forte Dei Marmi (who improved from OR73 to OR111 as 3yo) has a long-stride and did not enjoy his outing at Windsor LTO; Ripon will suit him better. The opposition does not look strong in this, tho’ Sir Mark Prescott has a runner in it in Motivado who could be on an interesting mark if he is an improver. But for me, FRANCISCAN running off OR70 is the one to beat, tho’ I would not want to take any less than his current odds of 4/1.
Chepstow is the other Flat race meeting today, and it looks uninspiring apart from the 4:50 which is a class 6 h’cap over 12-furlongs. In it, Sir Mark Prescott runs a horse bred to run in the Derby, KEPLER’S LAW. In fact, his full brother Bashkirov ran in the Irish Derby of 2008, and his half-bro’ Summitville (OR109) was a consistent and regular Group race runner (2nd in Group 1, Sun Chariot Stakes). So then, what is this horse doing at Chepstow running off OR57? Well, he’ll need to be on his toes to beat Westhaven who won 3-days ago, but at 4/1 he looks worthy of a speculative punt.
Ripon 3:10, FRANCISCAN, 1pt win @ 4/1 (available generally and take best odds guaranteed)
Ripon 3:40, DUBAI DYNAMO, ½pt win @ 6/1 (available generally and take best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1½pts staked
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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Tuesday, 24 May 2011
Sir Mark Prescott up to his tricks again
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FRANCISCAN is clearly nothing like as good as his half-bro' and looked one-paced in this despite being given every chance to show his worth - he's now off the list.ReplyDelete
DUBAI DYNAMO won with a tonne in hand!ReplyDelete
He coasted thru' this field from the back and in this form he could win again (if the handicapper isn't hard on him).
That's 2pts profit on the day.