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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Saturday, 24 September 2011
Close, but no cigar!
Talk about hitting the crossbar!
I put-up 2 selections on Betting League and what great runs they gave us – but neither won.
Both selections ran at Market Rasen over the jumps, and first up was KING IN WAITING, one of two entries in the race for David O’Meara. He was guaranteed the good pace he needs and I thought the booking of Paddy Brennan as “2nd jockey” (Denis O’Regan had chosen to ride Viva Colonia) was indicative of his chance. As such, I thought the morning odds of 8/1 were generous as I considered him more like a 5/1 chance. The horse did everything right, taking-up the lead at the 2nd-last flight – but perhaps that was a bit too early as, when challenged and passed jumping the final flight, he was unable to peg-back the eventual winner who took the race with an advantage of just a head and they were 4-lengths clear of the remainder.
The winner – Rumble Of Thunder – was returned at odds of 20/1 which were also generous considering the horse had won 2 of his last 3 hurdle races, and the 5yo looks very much on the upgrade.
The next race was one I felt much more confident about, and I advised a win wager on NOBLE ALAN at the morning odds of 10/1. Now, this horse has been highly campaigned as a chaser, and no wonder as he won the Scottish Champion Hurdle in April 2009. I felt he was under-estimated by the handicapper and the betting market and so it proved. He simply cruised up to the leaders before the 2nd-last fence looking full of running but, asked for a big jump by his jockey, he jarred his leg on landing (false turf?) and un-shipped his jockey.
But for a bit of luck, we could have had a cracking double at 8/1 and 10/1.
At Haydock, I wrote in my blog that “you may want to take a look at a rank outsider “– JUDGE AND JURY was 28/1, and he was just beaten into 4th by a head after being with the leaders all the way.
I wrote that the Sun Chariot Stakes should go to SAHPRESA, and so it did and although the SP was 13/8, odds of 9/4 were available in the morning.
All-in-all, a fine day at the races with plenty of enjoyment. Unfortunately, the Betfair platform was struggling for a lot of the afternoon and plenty of players were complaining on twitter. For those who make their living from the platform, it is a real inconvenience when it does not work.
Me? I’m happy that my form-study on the jumps scene will soon start to pay dividends as, but for some cruel luck today, we could have been counting a stack of cash.
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