October trainer-form - and an outsider for the "Arc"

The 343rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I have to admit, I got a real buzz from watching the ‘jumps’ meeting at Market Rasen last Saturday – it showed me what I’d been missing all summer long. Excitement!

Although I did not find a winner from my 2 selections (posted-up on Betting League) they both gave me a cracking good run and an opportunity to shout them home from about half-a-mile out. You cannot really do that with flat racing.

As such, my enthusiasm was fired-up on Sunday and I opened up my trusty “Trainers – Jumps Statistics” annuals from the past few seasons to search at pointers for the coming month ahead. When I look at Trainer Statistics, be they for the Jumps or the Flat, I concentrate on those trainers who are earning strike-rates of better than 20% winners-to-runners. The obvious candidates, PF Nicholls & NJ Henderson, quickly take your eye but, if you want to find an edge then you have to delve into the stats that little bit deeper.

Take champion trainer PF Nicholls. On the face of it, with 49 winners from 170 runners in October over the past 4 years (not including NH Flat races) you’d be considering supporting every runner he sends out in October. But his record with hurdlers can be patchy in October and, if you concentrate only on his chasers then you’ll likely be onto something. He’s won with 24 of his 65 chase runners in the past 4 seasons, and they don’t need a prep run either (FTO, 29% WTR).
Some abbreviations to shorten the word count:
FTO = First time out
WTR = Wins to Runs

Similarly, NJ Henderson has a 27% WTR strike-rate in October but with far fewer runners. With him, you won’t see many chasers out so you need to focus more on his hurdlers (29%WTR).

A trainer who will be winning more than his fare share in October will be Nigel Twiston-Davies, but you have to remember he campaigns all summer long. His form usually tails-off from November onwards before he recaptures it in the Spring. Even so, his chasers are always worth a second-look (24%WTR).

For the Northern Jumps meetings in October – and throughout this season, in fact – there will be the huge gap left by the demise of trainer J Howard Johnson to fill. In 2010-11, he averaged 50 runners a month between October and April (inclusive) from his 130-strong stable; and he won 58 races in that period. Who will fill that gap? Donald McCain looks like the most obvious candidate (what’s his odds for Champion Trainer?), but I reckon Sue Smith will be a name to follow on the Northern circuit.

Lastly, it’s the Arc de Triomphe this Sunday and with Sarafina the 7/2 favourite (Paddy Power), you cannot help thinking the horse that she just beat LTO, HIRUNO D’AMOUR looks value at 20/1 (Corals, Hills, PaddyPower, Bet365, & Boyles). That was HIRUNO’s first run since 1st May and his first run on a European track and, he had Coronation Cup winner and King George 3rd St Nicholas Abbey 2½ lengths behind him on level terms. He was beaten only a “short-neck” by Sarafina. To me, he looks sure to improve a few pounds for the run which was only his 6th start, as such he must still be unexposed. I reckon he should be trading at under 10/1 on the back of that run.

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