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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 23 September 2011

There's value to be had (if you can find it!)

The 341st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

For me, this time of the year (post St Leger and pre Arc de Triomphe) is a period when I wager very sparingly on the ‘flat’. This week’s meetings have not presented me with a wagering opportunity that I have felt confident of sharing with readers of the blog and subscribers of my selections on Betting League (where you can find my advices).

As such, I’ve spent a fair amount of time on form-study of recent meetings over the ‘jumps’. This can be very productive as spotting horses that are not just fit, but well in advance of other horses, means that even tho’ they may start fav for their next outing the market still undervalues their position.

The meeting on Saturday at Haydock looks like one I’d normally avoid. The class 2, 5-furlong h’cap at 3:20 is a race I wouldn’t spend any time on but for the presence of Addictive Dream. Firstly, he’s not a selection as, even with Kieren Fallon in the saddle, he needs 6-furlongs. What I can’t work out is why the horse has only a single win to his name on turf. But, as he’s 2nd-fav, that means there is a hint of value amongst the others and the search for the winner must start with the fav CHEVETON. This horse won this race last year after winning at Ayr the previous week and he’s attempting the same again and has the going in his favour. Ladbrokes may rue offering him at odds of 6/1. I hope the 16 in it all go to post as, if they do, you may want to take a look at a rank outsider who has slipped 12lb in the ratings from this time last year, has done nearly all his winning on ground with “give” and yet has hardly ever run on it in the past two seasons – JUDGE AND JURY at 28/1 (with Boylesports, and 25/1 generally). He is in good form, but has just been running on going quicker than he likes. He could lead all the way, and is probably worth a “place-only” wager on the exchanges with a small win wager.

I can’t see anything at Chester of interest. At Ripon, a recent selection of mine (that was beaten) runs again in Fastnet Storm, who has a much better draw (4) this time. He could run a very prominent race at decent odds.

At Newmarket, the Sun Chariot Stakes should go to SAHPRESA who has won this race for the past 2 years, as she is better than these. The only doubt is the going (good-to-firm) and that brings TIMEPIECE into play. The big race of the day is the Cambridgeshire and with 35 runners going to post, this is a race that you play with gut feeling. Horses with experience of these sort of races usually come good again, and RIGGINS who was 2nd in the Royal Hunt Cup in 2010 off OR100 comes into this on OR98 having been targeted at this race all season. He’s drawn in the middle at 22, and that’s where you want to be. He may be worth an eachway play at 28/1 with Skybet who are paying to 6-places.

There is a cracking ‘jumps’ meeting at Market Rasen, and that’s where I’ll be having a wager tomorrow as I think I’ve found me a bit of value. You’ll have to go to the Betting League website to find out what I’m on (had an 8/1 winner from 2 selections last Saturday – SP was 5/1).

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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