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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Friday 23 November 2012
The meeting at Haydock is a bit disappointing, but that is almost certainly due to the weather. I'll be watching with interest the graduation chase at 1:20 and the novice chase at 1:55, and I fully expect Gevrey Chambertin (full brother of Grands Crus) to win the fixed brush hurdle at 3:05 and current odds of 15/8 aren't bad.
At Ascot there are a couple of decent handicap chases but, first, at 1:30 we have a beginner's chase over 2m5f & 110 yards and I like the chance of RESTLESS HARRY. Yes, the horse ran a stinker at Wetherby the other week but he may have just needed that run. More importantly, he jumped well enough last season in a couple of novice chases (without winning) to go onto my alert list and at odds of 11/4 he looks worthy of a small wager, say ½pt.
At 2:40 there is a class 3 handicap chase over 2m3f, and I fancy another off my alert list in this race, MARSHAL ZHUKOV. He won really well at Chepstow LTO in only his 2nd chase and 5lb claimer James Best has a good rapport with the horse. Currently 4/1, I was hoping for a little better but Ladbrokes are playing safe going only 100/30. MARSHAL ZHUKOV is worth a 1pt win wager @ 4/1 (go best odds guaranteed). For an eachway play in this race, I think All For Free should be a bit shorter than 11/1 based on his 2nd at Sandown last January over 2-mile. He was outclassed at Ascot NTO, and never got going in his last start, but he has his first race for a new trainer today (Bridgwater) and I reckon he'll go well.
The next on the card is another interesting handicap at 3:15 over 3-mile. Another off my alert list runs in this in Loch Ba, and hopefully the 6yo can follow-up his LTO win. This race does not seem as clear cut as the earlier handicap as the obvious danger is 2nd-fav Prophet de Guye who also won LTO. However, I'm not expecting more improvement from that 9yo especially on today's softer ground and a more likely challenge is to come from Brackloon High. Ignore his last couple of runs last season as he was over-the-top LTO and certainly out of his depth at the Cheltenham Festival. Before that tho' he looked a progressive novice chaser and he also goes well fresh. Best odds of 6/1 are fair reflection of his chance and, given Loch Ba also goes best fresh and may not therefore repeat his LTO performance today, BRACKLOON HIGH gets the nod to ½pt.
In the handicap hurdle at 3:50, I've noted that Bourne runs for Donald McCain, and it's his only runner at Ascot today. I haven't studied the form for this race, but a few good judges thought Bourne was unlucky LTO and some improvement is likely to come.
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